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随着美国转向反对乌克兰,欧洲孤立无援As America turns against Ukraine, Europe stands alone

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从基里尔·德米特里夫(Kirill Dmitriev)在X平台上发布的帖子来看,这位俄罗斯负责对美乌克兰战争事务的主要谈判代表过去两周过得很惬意。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普最近与乌克兰闹翻并拥抱俄罗斯——尤其是他豁免了对购买俄罗斯石油的国家的制裁——是一个“真正具有历史意义的时刻”。即将到来的经济交易(尤其是北极地区的交易)证明“坚冰已经融化”。

KIRILL DMITRIEV, Russia’s main negotiator with America over the war in Ukraine, has enjoyed the past fortnight, to judge by his posts on X. President Donald Trump’s latest bust-up with Ukraine and embrace of Russia—especially his waiver of sanctions against countries buying Russian oil—was a “truly historic moment”. Forthcoming economic deals, not least in the Arctic, prove that “the ice has broken”.

至于惊慌失措的欧洲领导人,他声称,本周巴黎和米兰街头的暴力事件表明,欧洲公民正在反对“好战”。10月16日,德米特里夫转发了一则关于新世界秩序的模因:美国鹰和俄罗斯熊联手对付英国狮,争夺一个正在分裂的欧洲大陆的命运。

As for Europe’s dismayed leaders, he claimed, this week’s violence in the streets of Paris and Milan showed European citizens were turning against “warmongering”. On October 16th Mr Dmitriev reposted a meme about the new global order: the American eagle and the Russian bear together taking on the British lion over the fate of a fracturing European continent.

对乌克兰领导人弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基(Volodymyr Zelensky)来说,世界看起来越来越是这副模样。“如果美国站在俄罗斯一边……我们当然不会取胜,”他在10月18日对美国全国广播公司(NBC)电视节目如是说。在10月16日于布鲁塞尔举行的峰会上,泽连斯基曾赞扬欧洲人是“真正的领导人”。但他们也面临着越来越大的压力:他们在支持乌克兰方面大体上保持团结,但又对跨大西洋关系破裂的前景感到惊恐,且无法填补美国军事和情报支持流失的空白。

Increasingly, that is how the world looks to the Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelensky. “If the United States takes the side of Russia…of course we will not prevail,” he told NBC television on October 18th. At a summit in Brussels on October 16th, Mr Zelensky had hailed Europeans as “real leaders”. But they are under growing pressure, too: largely united in supporting Ukraine, yet alarmed by the prospect of a transatlantic breakdown and unable to replace the loss of American military and intelligence support.

他们还面临着愈发肆无忌惮的俄罗斯“灰色地带”破坏和恐吓、不断增长的财政压力以及国内日趋两极化的政治。

They also face ever more brazen Russian “grey-zone” sabotage and intimidation, growing fiscal pressures and more polarised politics at home.

10月17日,德国总理弗里德里希·梅尔茨(Friedrich Merz)对他的基督教民主联盟青年翼表示,“我们绝不能让(乌克兰)及其人民孤立无援地自生自灭”。但民调领先的民粹右翼政党“德国选择党”的联合领导人爱丽丝·魏德尔(Alice Weidel)坚称,“90%的德国人反对继续在乌克兰烧掉德国纳税人的钱”。她声称,恢复与俄罗斯的能源交易将降低能源成本并提振经济。

On October 17th Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor, told the youth wing of his Christian Democratic Union that “we must not leave [Ukraine] and its people to fend for themselves”. But Alice Weidel, co-leader of the populist-right Alternative for Germany, which leads in opinion polls, insists that “90% of Germans oppose the continued burning of German taxpayers’ money in Ukraine”. A return to energy deals with Russia, she claims, would lower energy costs and boost the economy.

直到最近,欧洲领导人还认为他们已经成功地将特朗普拉回了避免以牺牲乌克兰为代价同俄罗斯做交易的立场。6月,他们甚至让他签署了一份七国集团(G7)声明,承诺“加强我们的制裁,包括对石油和天然气行业的制裁”。但是,随着美国中期选举将在两周多一点后举行、其所在的共和党面临失去国会两院其中之一或全部控制权的风险,特朗普改变了调门。

Until recently European leaders thought they had successfully drawn Mr Trump away from the notion of doing deals with Russia at Ukraine’s expense. In June they even got him to sign up to a G7 statement pledging to “strengthen our sanctions, including those on the oil and gas sectors”. But with America’s midterm elections slightly more than two weeks away, and his Republican Party at risk of losing control of one or both houses of Congress, Mr Trump has changed his tune.

10月9日,他宣布与弗拉基米尔·普京达成一项协议,暂时解除制裁,允许俄罗斯向美国和其他国家销售更多柴油。他承诺此举将拉低燃油价格;经济学家则认为这将徒劳无功。随后,特朗普宣布俄罗斯和乌克兰将停止轰炸彼此的能源基础设施。俄罗斯忽视了这一所谓的能源停火,乌克兰也只是短暂地遵守了它。在美方莫名其妙地未能就即将发生的弹道导弹袭击发出警告,并阻止其高速无人机使用星链(Starlink)互联网卫星系统后,乌克兰抛弃了所有克制。

On October 9th he announced a deal with Vladimir Putin to lift sanctions temporarily to allow Russia to sell more diesel to America and other countries. He promised the move would bring down fuel prices; economists think it will be ineffectual. Mr Trump then declared that Russia and Ukraine would stop bombing each other’s energy infrastructure. Russia disregarded that so-called energy ceasefire, and Ukraine observed it only briefly. It abandoned all restraint after America mysteriously failed to warn it of impending ballistic-missile attacks, and blocked its high-speed drones from using the Starlink internet-satellite system.

特朗普声称他没有下达停止此类支持的命令。10月16日,他以“国家利益”为由,豁免了国会新颁布的针对购买俄罗斯油气国家的制裁。

Mr Trump claimed he had given no orders to halt such support. On October 16th he waived new congressionally mandated sanctions against countries buying Russian oil and gas, citing “national interests”.

乌克兰目前对美国卫星还有何种获取权限,其细节仍扑朔迷离,而泽连斯基现在表示对星链的访问权限正在恢复。但如果限制技术支持和施加政治压力的目的是为了制止对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击,那么它们显然已经失败了。10月18日,乌克兰发起了迄今为止对圣彼得堡最大规模的无人机袭击,导致该市的石油码头起火并击中了其他目标。

The details of what access Ukraine still has to American satellites are still murky, and Mr Zelensky now says access to Starlink is being restored. But if restricting technical support and exerting political pressure were intended to halt attacks on Russian refineries, they have plainly failed. On October 18th Ukraine launched the biggest drone assault yet against St Petersburg, setting the city’s oil terminal alight and striking other targets.

以梅尔茨为例,他表示远程打击是正当的。“这些打击是乌克兰让俄罗斯明白它已准备好严肃认真地进行自卫的唯一手段。”泽连斯基辩称,对俄罗斯的让步只会延长战争。但他的反击和对特朗普的公开批评可能会加速与美国的永久疏远,并最终削弱乌克兰在战场上的地位。无论是欧洲盟友还是乌克兰富有创新精神的防御工业,目前都无法替代美国的某些能力:弹道导弹发射的早期预警、拦截它们的爱国者导弹以及星链在近地轨道上的密集互联网卫星网络。

Mr Merz, for one, says long-range strikes are justified. “These strikes are the only means Ukraine has to make Russia understand it is ready to seriously defend itself.”Mr Zelensky argues that concessions to Russia only lengthen the war. But his ripostes and open criticism of Mr Trump may be hastening a permanent estrangement with America, and ultimately weakening Ukraine’s position on the battlefield. Neither European allies nor Ukraine’s innovative defence industries can yet substitute for some of America’s capabilities: early warning of ballistic-missile launches, Patriot missiles to intercept them and Starlink’s dense network of internet satellites in low Earth orbit.

今年4月,欧盟批准了价值900亿欧元(折合约1010亿美元)的贷款,以帮助支付乌克兰今年和明年的需求。但在10月16日,泽连斯基要求明年再提供700亿欧元,部分用于促进国内武器生产。他得到了同情的倾听,但没有得到任何承诺。许多欧洲国家的政府预算都因沉重的债务、不断上升的债券收益率和高昂的能源价格而捉襟见肘。

In April the European Union approved loans worth €90bn ($101bn) to help pay for Ukraine’s needs this year and next. But on October 16th Mr Zelensky asked for €70bn more next year, in part to boost domestic weapons production. He got a sympathetic hearing but no promises. Many European government budgets are strained by heavy debts, rising bond yields and high energy prices.

一些领导人再次敦促动用欧洲价值超过2000亿元的被冻结俄罗斯资产来资助乌克兰。由于担心对欧洲财产权造成损害,持有其中大部分资产的比利时迄今一直拒绝考虑这一概念。

Some leaders are again pushing to use more than €200bn-worth of frozen Russian assets in Europe to fund Ukraine. Belgium, where most of them are held, has so far refused to entertain the notion, fearing the damage to property rights in Europe.

据报道,美国曾恳请欧洲解冻部分俄罗斯资产,其依据是一个令人怀疑的理论,即这种绥靖政策将鼓励克里姆林宫参与和平谈判。梅尔茨拒绝了这一观点,并宣称:“这是我们的事情,我们自己来决定。”对欧洲人来说,唯一的慰藉是美国国内对特朗普的两党批评声越来越高。共和党在中期选举中的失利可能会让乌克兰的支持者变得更加坚定。然而,这并不能保证:如果特朗普在国内受到打击,他很可能会寻找替罪羊。这可能意味着对他在海外视为敌手的对象进行更猛烈的抨击。

America has reportedly entreated Europe to unfreeze some Russian assets, on the dubious theory that such appeasement would encourage the Kremlin to engage in peace talks. Mr Merz rejected that notion, declaring: “This is our business and we are deciding over it.”The only consolation for Europeans is that bipartisan criticism of Mr Trump has grown louder in America. Republican losses in the midterms might allow Ukraine’s supporters to become more assertive. There’s no guarantee of that, however: If Mr Trump is chastened at home he is likely to seek someone to blame. That could mean lashing out even harder at his perceived foes abroad.

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