
对于长期以来与国会山共和党人结盟的大银行来说,民主党控制的众议院或参议院可能会带来一些意想不到的机会。
For big banks, long aligned with Capitol Hill Republicans, a Democratic-controlled House or Senate could offer some unexpected opportunities.
金融业巨头希望国会限制加密货币公司支付利息,并为人工智能制定更清晰的规则。据金融服务业游说人士和银行内部人士称,加利福尼亚州众议员玛克辛·沃特斯——可能出任众议院金融服务委员会主席——以及马萨诸塞州参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦——可能领导参议院银行委员会——等民主党人可能成为潜在盟友。
The financial industry giants want Congress to restrict crypto companies from paying interest and write clearer rules of the road for AI. Democrats such as California Rep. Maxine Waters, the potential chair of the House Financial Services Committee, and even Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who could lead the Senate Banking Committee, could be potential allies, according to financial services lobbyists and bank insiders.
这种合作将令人意外,因为沃伦和沃特斯多年来一直是国会山上大型银行最直言不讳的反对者,尽管她们支持规模较小的区域性贷款机构。然而,两人在加密货币收益和人工智能监管方面想法一致。银行游说人士和行业组织将指望她们帮助推动有利于行业的立法在民主党控制的国会获得通过。
That collaboration would be surprising since Warren and Waters have for years been the megabanks’ loudest antagonists on Capitol Hill, even as they support smaller, regional lenders. Yet the two have aligned thinking on crypto rewards and AI regulation. Bank lobbyists and trade groups will be counting on them to help get industry-friendly legislation through a Democratic Congress.
金融服务公司政府关系公司巴伦坦战略的首席顾问詹姆斯·巴伦坦说:“银行在委员会中与民主党人就其优先事项展开合作的可能性很大。”
“There are good possibilities for banks to work with Democrats in the committee on their priorities,” said James Ballentine, principal consultant at Ballentine Strategies, a government relations firm for financial services companies.
咨询公司Mindset的合伙人丽莎·佩托曾长期担任沃特斯的高级助理,并定期与国会山的民主党人沟通。她说,民主党人“意识到银行是重要的参与者。”
Lisa Peto, a partner at the advisory firm Mindset who was a longtime senior Waters staffer and regularly talks to Democrats on the Hill, said Democrats “realize that the banks are important players.”“They will come in with an open mind and there could be some overlap with the banks as they look to guard against the risk coming from AI,” she said.
她说:“他们会以开放的心态来对待,在防范人工智能带来的风险方面,可能会与银行存在一些重叠。我们过去也看到过一些合作。”沃伦的发言人拒绝置评。沃特斯的办公室没有回应置评请求。
“We have seen some collaboration in the past.”Spokespeople for Warren declined to comment.
当然,在民主党控制一院或两院、共和党执掌白宫的环境下,要通过任何立法都将是一项艰巨的任务。
Waters’ office did not respond to requests for comment.
有很多因素可能影响银行界的情绪。监督听证会,尤其是如果民主党控制参议院,可能会迫使大型银行首席执行官就他们与特朗普政府监管机构的密切关系作证,这些监管机构推动的规则取消了2008年金融危机后对银行实施的许多限制。而民主党支持降低信用卡刷卡手续费的法案——这项政策特朗普总统也支持——可能会损害银行的利润。尽管如此,仍存在合作的机会,尤其是在加密货币领域。
Of course, getting any legislation enacted in an environment where Democrats control one or both chambers and Republicans run the White House will be an uphill climb. And there is plenty that could put a damper on the banks’ mood. Oversight hearings, particularly if Democrats control the Senate, could force megabank CEOs to testify on their close ties to Trump administration regulators, who have pushed rules unwinding many of the curbs on banks imposed following the 2008 financial crisis. And Democratic backing for legislation to lower credit card swipe fees, a policy that President Donald Trump also supports, could punish their bottom lines.
银行和加密货币公司一直在争论稳定币等加密资产是否应该支付利息,银行业担心持有这些数字资产的回报会促使客户将资金从传统银行取出。
Still, there are opportunities for collaboration, particularly on crypto.
银行在9月取得了一场胜利,当时一项名为《清晰法案》的广泛法案宣告失败。银行方面表示,该法案对加密奖励计划没有包含足够的限制。大多数国会共和党人和特朗普政府都支持该法案。
Banks and crypto companies have sparred over whether crypto assets such as stablecoins should pay interest, with the banking industry concerned that returns on holding the digital assets would prompt customers to take their money out of traditional banks. Banks scored a victory in September, with the collapse of a broad billknown as the Clarity Act, which banks said did not contain sufficient restrictions on crypto rewards programs. Most Hill Republicans and the Trump administration supported the bill.
如果民主党控制参众两院中的一院或两院,业内一些人认为银行将有机会推动一项更符合自身意愿的新法案。一位获准匿名坦率发言的华盛顿银行策略师表示,银行“希望民主党重新挑起这场争斗”。
With Democrats in control of one or both chambers, some in the industry feel that the banks will have a chance to get a new bill that’s more to their liking. Banks "are hoping that Democrats will reopen the fight," said a Washington-based bank strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly.
沃伦和沃特斯坚决反对《清晰法案》,原因不仅仅是奖励计划的争议。今年夏天,在谈判进行期间,沃伦称该法案是“又一次行业施舍,给了加密游说团体他们想要的一切”。众议员肖恩·卡斯滕和比尔·福斯特——两人都是伊利诺伊州民主党人,都在考虑挑战沃特斯以获得委员会主席之位——也反对该法案。
Warren and Waters were adamantly against Clarity, for reasons beyond just the fight over rewards. Over the summer, as negotiations were underway, Warren called the bill “another industry handout that gives the crypto lobby exactly its wish list.”Reps.
银行业一直对AI代理程序爬取客户账户的现象感到警惕,也可能转向民主党寻求制定相关标准。
Sean Casten and Bill Foster, both Illinois Democrats who are consideringchallenging Waters for the committee gavel, also opposed the bill.
两位银行官员表示,随着人工智能监管成为国会核心议题,民主党人可能更倾向于支持银行。沃特斯、沃伦、福斯特和卡斯坦均呼吁监管这一新兴技术行业,民主党党团中许多人呼吁加强监督。
The banking industry, which has been alarmed by the rise of AI agents crawling through customer accounts, could also turn to Democrats to set standards. As AI regulation becomes central in Congress, Democrats may be more likely to have banks’ backs, said two of the bank officials.
“威胁不是即将到来。它已经在这里了,”沃特斯上月表示,并补充说政府需要做得更多。
Waters, Warren, Foster and Casten have all called for regulating the emerging tech sector, and much of the Democratic caucus has called for more oversight.
福斯特于9月提出一项法案,旨在改善与人工智能相关的金融风险管理。国会中的共和党人对该行业的监管和监督热情较低,与白宫对人工智能更为放手的态度相呼应。
“The threat is not coming. It is here,” Waters said last month, adding that the government needs to do more. Foster introduced a bill in September to improve financial risk management as it relates to AI.
“人工智能代理正让机器人和骗子更容易在网上冒充你并获取你的账户。国会和监管机构必须加大力度,强化我们的金融体系以抵御这些漏洞,”福斯特上周四在X上写道。
Republicans in Congress have been less enthusiastic about regulation and oversight of the sector, echoing the White House’s more hands-off approach to AI.
民主党人可能提出的其他议题可能会使银行界产生分歧,例如提高存款保险上限——该保险保护银行客户在银行倒闭时不至于损失资金。目前,联邦存款保险对每位存款人在每家参保银行的每种账户类型最高覆盖25万美元。
“AI agents are making it easier for bots and crooks to impersonate you online and gain access to your accounts. Congress and regulators must step up their game to harden our financial system against these vulnerabilities,” Foster wrote on X last Thursday. Other issues that Democrats might take up could split the banks, such as raising the cap on deposit insurance, which protects bank customers from losing their money if their bank collapses.
一项提高该上限的两党提案在众议院和参议院一直搁置未决。沃特斯在众议院提出了一项相关法案,沃伦则支持提高上限。
Right now, federal deposit insurance covers up to $250,000 per depositor per insured bank for each account type. A bipartisan proposal to raise that limit has languished in the House and Senate.
小型和地区性银行支持提高上限,但大型银行普遍反对,称更高的限额会给客户带来成本而没有相应的好处,且可能无法防止其较小竞争对手发生挤兑。
Waters introduced a related bill in the House, and Warren has supported raising the cap.
“我预计下一届国会会有推动力,尤其是如果经济更加不稳的话,”美国独立社区银行家协会政府事务执行副总裁保罗·默斯基表示。该协会是一个支持提高存款保险上限的小型银行行业组织。
Small and regional banks support lifting the cap, but big banks generally oppose it, saying higher limits would impose costs to their customers without commensurate benefits and may not prevent bank runs at their smaller rivals. “I expect that there will be a push in the next Congress, particularly if the economy is more shaky,” said Paul Merski, executive vice president of government affairs for the Independent Community Bankers of America, a small bank trade group that supports lifting the deposit insurance cap.