
Alphabet 全线业绩不及预期,其中搜索业务的表现最为突出。
Alphabet's across-the-board earnings miss one segment stood out above all else: search.
搜索及其他业务板块收入同比增长 12%,达到约 630 亿美元,但连续第二个季度低于市场预期。与此同时,Google 表示,平台上的搜索查询增长强劲,为五年来最强。
Revenue in the search and other segment grew 12% from a year ago to roughly $63 billion, but came in below estimates for the second straight quarter. At the same time, Google said search query growth on the platform was the strongest it's been in five years.
随着越来越多用户转向人工智能机器人和智能体(包括 Google 自身提供的工具),这家搜索巨头旗舰业务中使用量与收入之间的差距愈发难以忽视。自 ChatGPT 早期以来,分析师便预测传统搜索将被 AI 取代,并警告 Google 必须寻找新的盈利模式。尽管搜索仍是一项庞大的业务,但转型的早期迹象已初现端倪。
The gap between usage and revenue within the search giant's flagship business is becoming harder to dismiss as more people turn to artificial intelligence bots and agents, including tools offered by Google. Since the early days of ChatGPT, analysts have predicted that traditional search will get eclipsed by AI, and warned that Google will have to figure out new ways to make money. While search remains a massive business, early signs of a shift are appearing.
Deepwater Asset Management 的 Gene Munster 在财报发布后接受 CNBC《Fast Money》节目采访时表示,谈及新的 AI 驱动服务:“这些东西将成为一股力量。”Munster 称,如果“个性化机器人”普及,“那将成为许多人商业活动的起点,从而影响 Google 的地位。”Alphabet 高管表示,汇率影响是本期搜索收入增速放缓的最大因素,并称汇率影响在第四季度将更大。
"These things are going to be a force," Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster told CNBC's "Fast Money" after the earnings report, referring to new AI-powered services. Munster said that if "personalized bots" take off, "that will become for a lot of people the starting point of commerce, which impacts where Google is." Alphabet executives said foreign exchange was the biggest factor behind the deceleration in search revenue in the period, and said the currency impact would be even greater in the fourth quarter.
受疲软的财报及 90 亿美元的负自由现金流(为预期赤字的三倍)拖累,股价在盘后交易中暴跌约 10%。在第二季度,Alphabet 的自由现金流首次在其上市历史中转负,达 59 亿美元。
The stock plummeted about 10% in extended trading, reflecting the weaker-than-expected earnings report and negative free cash flow of $9 billion for the quarter, three times the estimated deficit. In the second quarter, Alphabet's free cash flow went negative for the first time in its history as a public company, at $5.9 billion.
谷歌在过去一年的大部分时间里一直在告诉投资者,它需要向 AI 基础设施和服务投入巨资,以满足消费者和企业源源不断的需求。谷歌的 Gemini 模型使该公司能够与 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 保持竞争力,而其由 Gemini 提供支持的企业级服务已被证明深受客户欢迎。
Google has spent much of the past year telling investors that it needs to pour money into AI infrastructure and services to meet unending demand from consumers and businesses. Google's Gemini model has allowed the company to stay competitive with Anthropic OpenAI and its Gemini-powered enterprise services have proven to be a hit with customers.
该公司还表示,Gemini 正在强化其核心数字广告业务,因为它利用 AI 提高了理解用户意图的能力,使广告更加相关。
The company also says that Gemini is strengthening its core digital ads business, as it uses AI to improve its ability to understand user intent and make advertising more relevant.
“我们继续加速在整个广告基础设施中部署 Gemini 模型,以提升性能,”首席商务官 Philipp Schindler 在财报电话会上表示。
“We continue to accelerate the deployment of Gemini models across our entire ads infrastructure to boost performance,” Chief Business Officer Philipp Schindler said on the earnings call.
该公司在第三季度进行了 Schindler 所谓的“十年来对产品列表广告的最大更新”,增加了新的 AI 功能。
Amazon’s anti-tokenmaxxing memo says engineers should be pickier about using AI Google alters its cloud playbook, enlisting partners to sell more AI chips A guide to some of the biggest risks in Anthropic's IPO prospectus The company made what Schindler called its “biggest update to product listing ads in a decade” during the third quarter, adding new AI capabilities.
“总体而言,AI 正在加速我们的广告开发,并推动了我们大多数产品的发布,”Schindler 说。
“Overall, AI is accelerating our ads development and drives the majority of our product launches,” Schindler said.
广告主也在迅速采用 AI 工具。Schindler 表示,在第三季度,Gemini 模型帮助广告主生成了超过 15 亿个广告素材,比一年前增长了七倍多。
Advertisers are also rapidly adopting AI tools. In the third quarter, Gemini models helped advertisers generate more than 1.5 billion campaign assets, up more than sevenfold from a year earlier, Schindler said.
但这些都无法解决搜索业务收入增长放缓的问题,其增速从第一季度的 19% 下滑至第二季度的 17%,第三季度进一步降至 12%。
But none of that addresses revenue growth for search, which slid from 19% in the first quarter to 17% in the second, before falling to 12% in the third.
瑞银分析师在一份报告中写道,这些结果“将把搜索业务被蚕食的担忧重新推向风口浪尖”。瑞穗分析师 Jordan Klein 表示,这些数字对搜索和 YouTube 业务构成了问题。
Analysts at UBS wrote in a note that the results are "going to bring Search cannibalization fears right back to the forefront." And Mizuho analyst Jordan Klein said the numbers are an issue for search and YouTube.
“这加剧了人们对 AI 和智能体会从搜索和 YouTube 抢夺份额、损害其 AI 变现叙事的担忧,”Klein 在财报发布后的报告中写道。
"This elevates the fear around AI and agentic taking share from Search and YT and hurting their AI monetization narrative," Klein wrote in a note after the earnings report.
云计算为Alphabet带来AI回报 Alphabet的AI押注在其云业务中正在获得丰厚回报。
Cloud gives Alphabet its AI payoff Where Alphabet's AI bet is very much paying off is in its cloud business.
该部门的营收在季度中翻了一番多,达到近310亿美元,该部门正竭力追赶亚马逊云服务和微软Azure。云计算积压订单也达到约5600亿美元,反映出对AI基础设施的巨大合同需求。管理层表示,预计未来24个月内将确认其中略超过一半的积压订单。
Revenue in that division, which is racing to catch up to Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure, more than doubled in the quarter to nearly $31 billion. Cloud backlog also reached roughly $560 billion, reflecting enormous contracted demand for AI infrastructure. Management said it expects just over half of that backlog to be recognized over the next 24 months.
微软周三盘后发布的季度财报显示,该软件制造商称Azure营收较去年同期增长48%,达到332亿美元。云计算需求是Alphabet继续投入的重要原因。
In Microsoft's quarterly earnings report which also landed after the bell on Wednesday, the software maker said Azure revenue increased 48% from a year earlier to $33.2 billion. Cloud demand is a big reason for Alphabet to keep spending.
该公司维持2026年全年资本支出预测为1950亿至2050亿美元,并表示支出将在2027年大幅增加。其中一部分用于其张量处理单元(TPU),TPU与英伟达的图形处理单元竞争。Alphabet刚刚在第二季度开始向外部客户销售TPU。
The company maintained its full-year 2026 capital expenditure forecast of $195 billion to $205 billion and said spending will increase significantly in 2027. Some of that is for its tensor processing units or TPUs, which compete with Nvidia's graphics processing units. Alphabet just started selling them to outside customers in the second quarter.
客户协议首先出现在Google Cloud的积压订单中,公司必须先花钱搭建系统,然后才能交付并确认相关收入。
Customer agreements first show up in Google Cloud’s backlog, and the company has to spend money building the systems before it can deliver them and recognize the associated revenue.
“你会看到现金流出,我们正在积累库存基础,”Alphabet首席财务官Anat Ashkenazi在财报电话会议上表示。“当我们开始交付并向客户开具这些TPU系统的账单时,你就会看到现金流入。”不过,Google仍需应对对其长期现金牛的担忧。D.A. Davidson分析师Gil Luria表示,2023年至2025年期间存在的关于AI影响的担忧,似乎终于开始在Google的业务中显现。
“You see cash going out and we’re building up the inventory base,” Alphabet CFO Anat Ashkenazi said on the earnings call. “As we start delivering and billing customers for these TPU systems, then you see cash coming in.”Still, Google has to contend with concerns about its longtime cash cow. Gil Luria, an analyst at D.A. Davidson, said the fears that existed from 2023 to 2025 about the AI effect appear to finally be showing up in Google's business.
卢里亚在一封电子邮件中写道:“投资者现在会担心,搜索、YouTube和订阅业务的不及预期,导致利润不及预期,这表明人工智能终于开始冲击谷歌了。”“我们不会根据一个季度就草率下结论,但肯定需要重新评估‘代理式商务’对谷歌意味着什么。”搜索放缓之际,谷歌云业务激增
"Investors will now worry that the miss in Search, YouTube and Subscription, leading to a profit miss, are an indication that AI has finally come for Google," Luria wrote in an email. "We would not rush to conclusions based on one quarter, but will definitely need to reassess what the world of agentic commerce means for Google." Google Cloud surges as search slows
