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人工智能泡沫高涨背后的危险金融网络The dangerous financial web behind the surging AI bubble

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关于当前这波人工智能热潮摇摇欲坠的融资模式,舆论已有大量论述:资金池巨大,押注风险高,而美国经济增长取决于市场持续扩张。过去一个月,这些问题凸显得尤为明显,CoreWeave(科维)股价因债务负担加重和对人工智能泡沫的担忧而暴跌。

Much has been said about the shaky financing of the current AI wave: the pool of money is huge, the bets are risky, and U.S. economic growth hinges on the market’s continued expansion. This past month has brought these issues into stark relief, with CoreWeave’s stock plummeting amid its mounting debt burden and fears of an AI bubble.

但在这一切中躲过审视的企业是英伟达,其对芯片设计的垄断地位和巨额资本,使其得以按自己的意愿塑造人工智能资本市场,进一步巩固了其在人工智能基础设施领域的统治地位,并在无人制衡的情况下动摇美国经济根基。

But the corporation escaping scrutiny in all this is Nvidia, whose monopoly over chip design and vast amounts of capital have allowed it to shape the AI capital market to its own ends, furthering its dominance of AI infrastructure and destabilizing the U.S. economy as it proceeds unchecked.

英伟达成立于1993年,最初是一家专注于为游戏玩家优化半导体芯片的小型初创公司,旨在满足他们快速渲染图形所需的更强算力。但局势在2010年代初开始发生变化,随着开发人工智能的兴趣迅速高涨,人工智能模型需要大量专用算力,而英伟达的图形处理单元(GPU)非常适合人工智能应用场景。

Nvidia was founded in 1993 as a small startup optimizing semiconductor chips for gamers who needed more computing power to render graphics quickly. But things started to change in the early 2010s with the rapid surge of interest in developing artificial intelligence. AI models required a large amount of specialized computational power, and Nvidia’s graphics processing units were ideally suited to AI use cases.

这标志着英伟达的一个转折点。2016年,联合创始人兼总裁黄仁勋亲自将一台英伟达超级计算机赠予由埃隆·马斯克、萨姆·奥特曼等人新近创立的OpenAI,实际上确保了OpenAI的软件将主要使用英伟达芯片。英伟达还开始通过捐赠其处理单元和超级计算机来争取科学家和人工智能研究人员。到2023年,英伟达股价开始陡峭上扬,并于2025年中期达到顶峰,该公司成为全球市值最高的上市公司。

This marked a turning point for Nvidia. In 2016, co-founder and president Jensen Huang personally gifted an Nvidia supercomputer to OpenAI, recently founded by Elon Musk, Sam Altman and others, virtually guaranteeing that OpenAI’s software would primarily use Nvidia chips. Nvidia also began courting scientists and AI researchers by donating its processing units and supercomputers. By 2023, Nvidia’s stock price had begun a steep upward climb that culminated, by mid-2025, in the company being named the most valuable public company in the world.

一旦人工智能世界开始运行在英伟达图形处理单元之上,英伟达的技术栈便形成了锁定效应,使得转向其他方案几乎成为不可能。

Once the AI world started running on Nvidia graphic processing units, Nvidia’s tech stack created lock-in that made it nearly impossible to switch.

这一战略的核心是公司的统一计算设备架构(CUDA),这是一种专有软件语言,经优化可在芯片上运行并发挥其最佳性能。尽管芯片无需这种特定软件也能使用,但性能下降剧烈,这意味着大多数 AI 应用都需要它。

The centerpiece of this strategy is the company’s Compute Unified Device Architecture, a proprietary software language optimized to run on the chips and achieve their best performance. Although the chips can be used without this specific software, the performance drop-off is steep, meaning that most AI applications require it.

英伟达为数不多的竞争对手试图通过设计能更轻松转译这种语言的软件来打破这一壁垒,但英伟达仍保持着强大的护城河。2024 年,英伟达更新了许可协议,禁止在竞争对手的芯片上使用该语言。公司还帮助超大规模数据中心运营商优化其英伟达技术栈,为此专门聘请了工程师。正如英伟达高管在最近一次财报电话会上指出的:“客户仍然可以混合搭配使用。然而,大多数公司就是没有技能这样做,也没有意愿这样做。”

Nvidia’s few competitors have tried to breach this barrier by designing software that more easily translates this language, but Nvidia maintains a powerful moat. In 2024, Nvidia updated its licensing agreements to disallow using the language on rival chips. The company also helps hyperscalers optimize their Nvidia stack, hiring engineers specifically for this purpose. As Nvidia executives noted during their most recent earnings call, “Customers can still mix and match. However, most companies just don’t have the skills to do that or a desire to do that.”

英伟达的战略已见成效;公司在图形处理单元设计市场上享有近 90% 的垄断地位。此外,英伟达在其销售的芯片上实现了 70% 至 75% 的毛利率。

Nvidia’s strategy has borne fruit; the company enjoys a nearly 90 percent monopoly over the design market for graphics processing units. What’s more, Nvidia manages a 70-75 percent gross margin on the chips that it sells.

英伟达通过这种锁定效应及其巨大的股价增长积累的力量,使该公司开始发挥《纽约时报》所称的“硅谷中央银行家”的作用。它开始向合作伙伴提供复杂的融资安排,大力投资支持其芯片使用的基础设施(如新型云服务商),并评估收购外部公司。尽管英伟达长期以来一直投资 AI 初创公司,但近几个月其交易活动显著增加。

The power that Nvidia has amassed through this lock-in and its enormous stock price growth has allowed the corporation to begin functioning as, to use The New York Times’s phrase, “Silicon Valley’s central banker.”It has begun offering complex financing arrangements to partners, investing heavily in infrastructure that supports the use of its chips, such as neoclouds, and evaluating outside companies to acquire. Although Nvidia has long invested in AI startups, there has been a notable uptick in its deal activity in recent months.

通过作为一家不受监管的银行家运作,英伟达正在本意旨在防止高风险押注导致金融体系崩溃的监管框架之外塑造美国经济——而该公司既得利益在于助长 AI 狂热。

By operating as an unregulated banker, Nvidia is shaping the U.S. economy outside the regulatory bounds intended to keep risky bets from collapsing the financial system — and the company has a vested interest in fueling the AI mania.

需要训练的AI模型越多、训练速度要求越快,数据中心数量越多,英伟达的技术栈在美国AI行业中被采购和集成的程度就越深。但英伟达的硬件价格昂贵,因此该公司开始提供复杂的融资安排,以激励客户快速采购并购买算力。当然,这些安排附带要求购买英伟达产品的条款,且通常要求按固定周期升级至最新芯片。

The more AI models that need to be trained faster, and the more data centers there are, the more Nvidia’s technology stack is being purchased and integrated into the American AI industry. But Nvidia’s hardware is expensive, so the company has begun offering complex financing arrangements to incentivize rapid adoption and compute purchases. These arrangements, of course, come with requirements to purchase Nvidia products and, often, to upgrade to the newest chips at regular intervals.

这并非英伟达尝试的唯一交易结构。该公司越来越多地采取直接投资“新云”基础设施的策略——即向AI公司出租云空间的数据中心——并反过来要求这些新云公司采购一定数量的英伟达硬件,且按固定节奏进行升级。英伟达最大的一笔投资是CoreWeave,持股近7%。

This is not the only deal structure Nvidia has piloted. The company has increasingly pursued a strategy of directly investing in neocloud infrastructure — data centers that rent cloud space to AI companies — and in turn requiring the neocloud companies to purchase a certain amount of Nvidia hardware and to upgrade it at a regular cadence. One of Nvidia’s biggest investments is in CoreWeave, of which it owns nearly 7 percent.

2024年底,英伟达完成了对Run:ai的收购;在最近一次财报电话会上,公司宣布本财年剩余时间将进行180亿美元的股权投资承诺,其私营公司持仓从2025年到2026年几乎翻了一番。2026年8月下旬,《The Information》报道称,英伟达意图以129亿美元收购开源AI模型平台Hugging Face。黄仁勋指出,AI智能体使用的算力是人类使用AI模型时的“15到100倍”;英伟达旗下的Hugging Face可能会开始偏向智能体模型,推动AI向算力和能源密集型用例发展(这将使英伟达受益)。

In late 2024, Nvidia completed an acquisition of Run:ai; in its most recent earnings call, the company announced commitments of $18 billion in equity investments for the remainder of the fiscal year, with its private company holdings almost doubling from 2025 to 2026. And in late August 2026, The Information reported Nvidia’s intention to acquire Hugging Face, a platform for open-source AI models, for $12.9 billion. Huang has noted that AI agents use “15-100x” the compute that a human using an AI model uses; it may be that Nvidia-owned Hugging Face begins preferencing agentic models, driving AI toward compute- and energy-heavy use cases (that benefit Nvidia).

2026年8月初,英伟达宣布与包括Apollo、BlackRock、Goldman Sachs和KKR在内的六家私募股权和投资银行建立合作伙伴关系,根据新闻稿,旨在“将英伟达算力和全栈AI基础设施打造成为全球资本可投资的资产类别”。该合作将汇集资金,为企业投资英伟达基础设施提供“极具吸引力的利率”。

In early August 2026, Nvidia announced a partnership with six private equity and investment bankers including Apollo, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and KKR to “turn Nvidia compute and full-stack AI infrastructure into an investable asset class for global capital,” according to the press release. The partnership will pool capital and offer “attractive rates” for enterprises to invest in Nvidia infrastructure.

换言之,AI 泡沫如今已成为华尔街部分最大玩家的资产,而英伟达则在不断拓宽其利润底线。

In other words, the AI bubble is now an asset for some of the biggest players on Wall Street, while Nvidia grows its bottom line.

AI 产业的爆发式增长以及其中涌动的巨额资本,似乎让许多政治领袖措手不及。但从某种意义上说,这是一个老故事:一家在珍贵产品上拥有近乎垄断地位的强大企业,积累了足够的资本,开始充当不受监管的银行家,将美国经济置于风险之中。如果 AI 需求未能跟上步伐,英伟达在该领域的金融纠葛将成为巨大的负债。

The explosion of the AI industry and the vast amounts of capital sloshing through seem to have taken many political leaders by surprise. But in one sense, this is an old story: a powerful corporation with a near-monopoly on a valuable product has amassed enough capital to begin acting as an unregulated banker, putting the U.S. economy at risk. If AI demand fails to keep pace, Nvidia’s financial entanglements across the space become a massive liability.

国会是时候调查这些融资做法、要求更透明的财务披露,并通过禁令,禁止英伟达(及其他公司)通过收购或其他投资在技术栈中实现垂直整合。英伟达已成为企业巨头,仅靠这些步骤可能无法遏制其在 AI 行业的扩张步伐——但硅谷这家不受监管的银行必须被管控起来。

It is time for Congress to investigate these financing practices, demand more transparent financial disclosures, and pass a ban on Nvidia’s (and others’) ability to move vertically through the tech stack through acquisition or other investment. Nvidia has become a corporate giant, and these steps alone may not curtail its march through the AI industry — but Silicon Valley’s unregulated bank must be brought to heel.

奥利维亚·科斯洛夫是美国经济自由项目的高级研究员,科林·邓克利是该项目的法律分析师。

Olivia Kosloff is a senior fellow at the American Economic Liberties Project, where Colin Dunkley is a legal analyst.

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