河内——随着越南日益成为高科技制造（包括半导体和电子产品）的中国替代方案，预计该国2026年的人均国内生产总值将超过印尼。
HANOI -- Vietnam's per capita gross domestic product is expected to surpass that of Indonesia in 2026, as the country increasingly becomes an alternative to China for high-tech manufacturing, including semiconductors and electronics.
国际货币基金组织预测，越南今年名义人均GDP将增长8.9%，达到5,259美元，几乎是过去十年的两倍。这将高于印尼的5,153美元，并使越南在东南亚国家联盟成员国中排名第五，仅次于泰国。
The International Monetary Fund projects Vietnam's nominal per capita GDP to rise 8.9% this year to $5,259, nearly doubling over the past decade. This would top Indonesia's $5,153 and rank the country fifth among Association of Southeast Asian Nations members, just behind Thailand.
越南的目标是2026年实现至少10%的经济增长。实际GDP在截至9月的季度增长了9.95%。
Vietnam targets economic growth of at least 10% in 2026. Real GDP climbed by 9.95% in the quarter through September.
“政府的积极公共投资正在支持增长，”发展经济研究所的高级研究员Mai Fujita说。
"Active public investment by the government is supporting growth," said Mai Fujita, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Developing Economies.
1月至9月期间，公共投资同比增长46%。该国计划全年公共投资1千万亿越盾（约387亿美元）。全国范围内的道路、机场等基础设施建设正在推进。
Public investment in the January-September period rose by 46% on the year. The country plans 1 quadrillion dong ($38.7 billion) in public investment for the year. Construction of roads, airports and other infrastructure is progressing nationwide.
同期，外商直接投资增长12%，达到211亿美元。像台湾电子巨头富士康（正式名称为鸿海精密工业）等公司正扩大在该国北部的生产。已登记的外商直接投资承诺——衡量投资趋势的关键指标——飙升76%，达到503亿美元。
In the same period, foreign direct investment increased 12% to $21.1 billion. Companies like Taiwanese electronics giant Foxconn, formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry, are expanding production in the country's north. Registered FDI commitments, a key indicator of investment trends, ballooned by 76% to $50.3 billion.
出口同样强劲，1月至9月出口额同比增长25%，达到4343亿美元。韩国企业如三星电子在越南设有生产设施，制造用于出口的智能手机和其他电子产品。
Exports are strong as well, rising 25% on the year for January-September to reach $434.3 billion. South Korean companies such as Samsung Electronics have facilities in Vietnam that make smartphones and other electronic devices for export.
美国统计数据显示，2023年1月至8月美国对越南的商品贸易逆差约为1600亿美元，成为华盛顿最大的此类逆差，已超过对中国和墨西哥的逆差。
U.S. statistics show the American trade deficit with Vietnam for goods reached roughly $160 billion in the January-August period, Washington's largest such deficit, surpassing that with China and Mexico.
印度尼西亚的增长率维持在5%左右。尽管该国凭借电动汽车等产业吸引外商直接投资（FDI），但这似乎并未给就业和收入带来足够的提振。印度尼西亚疲软的货币也抑制了其名义国内生产总值（GDP）折合美元后的增长。
Indonesia's growth rate remains around 5%. Though the country is attracting FDI with industries such as electric vehicles, this does not seem to be adding enough to employment and incomes. Indonesia's weak currency also depresses growth of its nominal GDP when converted to dollars.
越南寻求到2030年将人均GDP提高到8500美元，达到泰国目前的水平。泰国的年化实际GDP增长总计仅约2%，部分原因是沉重的家庭债务。
Vietnam seeks to raise per capita GDP to $8,500 by 2030, where Thailand stands now. Thailand's annualized real GDP growth totals only around 2%, partly due to heavy household debt.
一些人对河内的目标持谨慎态度。国际货币基金组织（IMF）和亚洲开发银行均预测该国2027年的增长率将在7.5%左右。
Some view Hanoi's targets with caution. The IMF and the Asian Development Bank both project the country's 2027 growth around 7.5%.
藤田说：“越南需要‘旨在长期增长的努力，例如开发人力资源和技术，除了促进短期增长的基础设施投资’。”
Vietnam needs "efforts aimed at long-term growth, such as development of human resources and technology, in addition to infrastructure investments that boost short-term growth," Fujita said.