预计选举日当天，美国中部将遭遇暴风雨天气，竞争最激烈的几个州——包括得克萨斯州、堪萨斯州和爱荷华州——的天气预报最为恶劣。预报员预测，周二将有一条雷暴带从得克萨斯州延伸至密苏里州，爱荷华州等上中西部州将出现阴雨天气，堪萨斯州等大平原州将刮大风。在关注度集中在摇摆州选民投票率之际，恶劣天气可能影响候选人动员选民前往投票站的能力。
Stormy, wet weather is expected to hammer the central U.S. on Election Day, with the spiciest forecasts for states with some of the hottest races — including Texas, Kansas and Iowa. Forecasters predict a line of thunderstorms stretching from Texas to Missouri on Tuesday, with dreary rainfall in upper Midwest states like Iowa and strong winds in Plains states like Kansas. With attention focused on voter turnout in battleground states, the inclement weather could affect candidates’ ability to draw people to the polls.
“美国中部地区很可能是选举日当天天气最活跃的区域，”国家气象局天气预测中心首席预报员鲍勃·奥拉韦克说。“视乎人们为支持心仪候选人而出来投票的决心有多大，天气可能会产生影响。”
“The middle part of the country is going to be probably the most active area on Election Day,” said Bob Oravec, a lead forecaster at the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center. “Depending on how committed people are going to be to turning out for whatever candidate they’re going to vote for, the weather could have an impact.”
奥拉韦克表示，周二上午的预报模型显示，雷暴将猛击得克萨斯州中北部，该地区是该州联邦参议员竞选的关键战场，民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科将与共和党人肯·帕克斯顿对决。“严重天气的各种典型情况”都有可能出现，他说：“大风、大冰雹，甚至可能出现龙卷风。”
Oravec said forecasting models for Tuesday morning show thunderstorms hammering north-central Texas, a critical battleground in the state’s U.S. Senate race, in which Democrat James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton. “The usual things of severe weather” were all possibilities, he said: “high winds, large hail, maybe even tornadoes.”
尽管距离周二还有五天多，奥拉韦克说，国家气象局有信心，一股风暴系统将于周日扫过西海岸，随后于周二袭击中部各州。“这是我们的数值模型擅长处理的那种系统，”他说。“雷暴带的具体时机在未来几天可能会发生变化，但风暴从西向东移动的总体趋势已基本确定。”
Although Tuesday is more than five days away, Oravec said the National Weather Service is confident that a storm system will sweep across the West Coast on Sunday then hit the central states Tuesday. “This is the kind of system that our numerical models handle well,” he said. “The individual timing of a line of thunderstorms likely will change over the next few days. But the overall idea of the storm moving from west to east is pretty well set.”
中部美国其他地区也可能面临危险。天气预测中心预报，大平原州将刮大风，包括堪萨斯州、科罗拉多州和内布拉斯加州。
Other areas in the central U.S. could face hazards, too. The Weather Prediction Center forecasts high winds in the Plains states, including in Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska.
“我们预计持续风速将在每小时20到30英里左右，阵风可能超过每小时40英里，甚至超过每小时50英里，”堪萨斯州古德兰德国家气象局预报员克林特·亚历山大说。亚历山大表示，大风可能影响交通，包括州内主要东西向走廊70号州际公路，不过预报仍存在一定不确定性。堪萨斯州已成为美国参议院选举的意外战场，民调显示共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔与民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿势均力敌。
“We’re looking at sustained winds around 20 to 30 miles an hour, and we could see some gusts over 40 to maybe even over 50 miles an hour,” said Clint Alexander, a National Weather Service forecaster in Goodland, Kansas. Alexander said the winds could affect travel, including on Interstate 70, the main east-west corridor through the state, though the forecast remains somewhat uncertain. Kansas has become a surprise battleground for the U.S. Senate, with polls showing Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton neck and neck.
爱荷华州方面，州长和联邦参议员竞选也陷入胶着。周二那里天气可能极其潮湿。“天气会相当阴沉，”爱荷华州达文波特国家气象局首席预报员贾斯汀·舒尔茨说。“看来选举日当天，该州至少部分地区将迎来相当多的降雨。”舒尔茨预计爱荷华州的预报将在周末变得更加明确。虽然未预测会有洪水，但他的团队认为，一个名为“可降水量”的指标——即大气柱中含有的水汽总量——可能达到历史最高值。
Iowa, meanwhile, has close races brewing for governor and U.S. Senate. Conditions there on Tuesday may be extremely wet. “It’ll be pretty dreary,” said Justin Schultz, the lead forecaster for the National Weather Service in Davenport, Iowa. “There looks to be a good bit of rainfall falling right on Election Day for at least portions of the state.”Schultz expects the forecast for Iowa to firm up over the weekend. There’s no flooding predicted, but his team thinks a measurement called precipitable water — the amount of moisture present in a column of the atmosphere — could reach an all-time high.
那将意味着全天会有大量降雨和潮湿天气。“这实际上可能接近这一时节的历史最高湿度纪录，”舒尔茨说。
That would amount to a lot of rain and wet conditions throughout the day. “It could actually be near-record moisture for this time of the year,” Schultz said.