Data journalist. Benedict Smith Washington Correspondent Updated 29 October 2026 3:16pm GMT 8:15pm BST On Wednesday, the US will find out whether Donald Trump has managed to retain control of Congress. The Republicans control both chambers for now, but their House majority is razor thin and the Senate margin dangerously narrow. With control hanging in the balance, the US president’s grip on power is far from secure.

Dwindling approval ratings have raised the prospect of a Democratic comeback. The Telegraph is tracking the latest polls and the most decisive states and districts to see how the elections may unfold National Congress polling Data analysis With less than a week to go until the midterms, the Democrats are maintaining a consistent lead over the Republicans.

As of Oct 27, the Democrats have an 8.8 percentage point lead, averaging at 51 per cent, while the Republicans trail at 42.2 per cent.

Republicans started from a high of around 47 per cent in early 2025 but gradually trended down to their lowest point near 41 per cent by October 2026. They have seen a slow but notable uptick in support since the start of October, though not nearly enough to catch up.

View from Washington Democrats maintain a sizeable lead over Republicans in national polling, although this has narrowed marginally in recent days.

That isn’t because voters are souring on Democrats, since both parties are seeing their numbers trend upwards. Rather, it reflects the fact that undecided voters are coming off the fence as election day draws near.

The generic congressional ballot does not show the concentration of votes in critical seats, and therefore where the balance of power will fall after Tuesday’s vote.

The bottom line is that despite the best efforts of Mr Trump and the fact Republicans have spent more than $2bn nationwide, they have failed to decisively move the needle. The GOP will be bracing for losses: the only question is, how many?

Senate Members of the Senate are elected every six years, and in cycles which means only 35 out of 100 seats are up for reelection this November – 22 held by Republicans and 13 by Democrats.

The Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, and the Democrats 45. There are also two independents, Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with the Democrats.

Every president since Bill Clinton has taken office with a trifecta: the White House, Senate and House.

Typically, this changes during the midterms when the opposing party tends to take control of either the Senate, the House, or both. This is key for the opposition because it gives them more power to block the president’s policies.

This is an interesting midterm cycle, with a handful of previously likely Republican wins becoming tossups. They include Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.

North Carolina, for a long time, was on the list of toss-up states. According to the Cook Political Report it is now a probable Democratic win with Republican campaign funding being redirected to more competitive races elsewhere.

South Carolina, traditionally considered a safe Republican seat, has become unexpectedly competitive. The data centre industry has emerged as a key issue for voters as Republican senator Darlene Graham, the late Lindsey Graham’s sister, seeks election to a full term against Dr Annie Andrews, the Democratic challenger.

The race remains too close to call. A recent poll by Targoz Market Research puts Ms Graham one percentage point ahead, while a separate poll by Impact Research gives Dr Andrews a one-point lead.

Meanwhile, the southern state of Georgia has moved off the competitive board, with the Cook Political Report marking it as a very likely win for the Democrats. The Peach State is on course to re-elect Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff, the youngest incumbent US senator.

The midterm Senate campaign has been a grim one for the Republicans. The party has written off some states it had hoped to flip and been forced on to the defensive in seats that should never have been competitive.

The GOP has all but given up on two swing states: North Carolina and Georgia, where the Democrats’ Roy Cooper and Jon Ossoff have opened up enormous leads over their rivals. Both have a double-digit advantage in some polls.

Georgia is already held by Mr Ossoff, but North Carolina would represent a gain for the Democrats. To win back control of the Senate, the party would have to flip three more states without conceding any.

Democrats have an advantage of a few percentage points in polling averages for Maine, Ohio, Alaska and Texas: enough for a slim majority, if they all fall into place on election night. But polls have traditionally understated Republican strength, which means any of them could go the other way.

Then there are the red states that have given Democrats cause for hope, where their leads are just a couple of decimal points: Iowa and Kansas.

NYT-Siena polling released on Wednesday even showed South Carolina – the state formerly held by the late Lindsey Graham – a virtual dead heat. The state has not elected a Democrat since 1998.

The Republicans’ best hope for flipping a blue seat is Michigan, where an ugly contest is under way between Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate, and Mike Rogers. Recent polls suggest the momentum is with Dr El-Sayed, however.

House of Representatives Members of the House of Representatives must stand for election every two years, which means all 435 seats are up for reelection. To gain control of the House, a party needs 218 seats or more.

The Democrats are favoured to regain control of the House of Representatives. According to the latest ratings from the Cook Political Report, 220 seats are rated as solid, likely or leaning Democratic.

One of the closest races is in Texas’s 35th district. the incumbent Democrat, Greg Casar, is running for re-election in the newly redrawn TX-37. The candidates for TX-25 are Republican Carlos De La Cruz and Democrat Johnny Garcia. The latest poll shows Mr De La Cruz with a one-point lead.

The race in Pennsylvania-10 is another popular one. The incumbent is Scott Perry, a high-profile Republican supported by Mr Trump and who served as chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, a powerful bloc of hardline conservative legislators aiming to shape House Republican policy. According to the latest poll, from The New York Times / Siena University the two candidates are even.

Republicans have a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives, and would always have been hard-pressed to cling to control of the chamber. There is only one time this century when the incumbent party did not lose the House.

Just days away from the midterms, the polls have stayed relatively consistent. Most analysts and prediction markets give the GOP a less than 10 per cent chance of keeping the House.

The non-partisan Cook Political Report, in its latest update, predicted the most likely result was for the Democrats to gain somewhere between 12 and 22 seats.

Several Republican-held seats, such as Wisconsin’s 3rd district – held by Derrick Van Orden, a close ally of Mr Trump – Arizona’s 6th district, and Colorado’s 8th district are now odds-on to go blue on Nov 3.

Governor’s races Governor elections determine who will lead each state’s executive government. Governors have direct responsibility over areas such as state budgets, education, healthcare and policing. The results are independent of which party controls Congress.

California is noteworthy mainly as a Democratic stronghold, where Xavier Becerra has a lead of 28 percentage points over Steve Hilton, his Republican rival.

Ohio is much more competitive. Democrat Amy Acton is leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by just 0.8 percentage points.

With days out from the midterms, Steve Hilton has still not managed to convince true-blue California to warm to a Republican.

The former Fox News host had waged a campaign focused on affordability concerns, arguing the cost of living had been driven up by years of Democratic mismanagement. But he lags behind his rival Xavier Becerra by double-digit margins: some as large as 27 points. The race for Ohio governor is notably closer, not to mention uglier.

Most polls give the Democrats’ Amy Acton a slight edge, but a couple have Vivek Ramaswamy ahead by a similar margin.

Many had predicted Mr Ramaswamy’s support would crater after he released an attack advert in which Ms Acton’s estranged mother accuses her daughter of being a liar. However, neither candidate appears to have a decisive lead.

Trump’s popularity Mr Trump’s approval rating has been falling since he took office in January 2025, according to data from Silver Bulletin, based on more than 85 polls with an average sample size of 2,000 respondents.

At the start of his presidency, opinion was already divided: just over 51 per cent of Americans approved of Mr Trump, while 40 per cent disapproved.

By early September, the Silver Bulletin average showed that 38 per cent approved of his performance, while 57 per cent disapproved.

Around Oct 21, Mr Trump reached a record-low approval rating of just 36.3 per cent (with some pollsters estimating an even lower value). In the lead-up to the midterms, this figure has rebounded slightly to 37 per cent. Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds of the respondents disapprove of Mr Trump: 60.4 per cent as of Oct 27. Mr Trump’s approval rating tipped into the negatives in March 2025 and has never recovered.

Across key issues such as his handling of inflation, the economy and trade, his ratings are a long way underwater. Even on immigration – where the president had a decisive advantage ahead of the 2024 election – voters give him low marks.

The president’s ratings recently hit an all-time low of 36.3 per cent, and have improved only marginally. He was significantly more popular at this point in his first term, in 2018, when he lost control of the House.

Nevertheless, Mr Trump has sought to make the midterms election about himself, possibly seeking to revive his flagging ratings.

He has stormed around the country, holding rallies in key states that are critical to keeping his control of Congress. In September, he held a midterm convention, the first in GOP, that his organisers dubbed “Trumpapalooza”.

Even some of Mr Trump’s closest allies are worried. After the convention, Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate candidate in Texas, fretted to donors that “everybody’s numbers dropped”.

Important issues Mr Trump won in 2024 on a cost-of-living mandate. But Americans are increasingly unimpressed with his handling of the economy, and even more so with his leadership.

According to the Gallup poll above, government and poor leadership are now the biggest concerns for Americans. The share of voters citing this as the country’s most important problem rose from 25 per cent to 30 per cent between August and September.

Other key concerns include the high cost of living and immigration. The former has decreased in importance – declining from 16 per cent in August to 13 per cent in September – while the latter has remained a constant concern at 10 per cent.

Polling from Fox News and CNBC has shown government corruption is a top priority for voters, even outstripping concerns about rising prices.

According to The Washington Post, two-thirds believe Mr Trump is using the presidency to enrich himself, following reports that his family has earned some $2bn since the start of his second term.

That would be a serious problem for the president in any case, but it may prove even more potent when cost-of-living concerns rank so highly and wage growth has failed to keep pace with inflation.

Inflation and high fuel prices have consistently ranked among the top for voters, and concerns have grown more acute since February, when Mr Trump went to war with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz was choked off.