新德里讯 -- 在印度节日季来临之际，该国9月份黄金进口额同比暴跌81%，主要原因是国内金价居高不下，以及总理纳伦德拉·莫迪多次呼吁民众不要购买这种贵金属，这引发了关于全球第二大黄金市场需求疲软是否会影响国际金价的疑问。
NEW DELHI -- India's gold imports dropped 81% in September ahead of the country's festive season, mainly due to elevated domestic prices and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's repeated calls against buying the precious metal, raising questions about whether weaker demand in the world's second-largest market could affect global bullion prices.
为期一个月的节日季主要在排灯节前夕，今年排灯节定于11月8日，加上持续到2月的婚礼季，通常都会出现旺盛的黄金需求，因为许多印度人认为黄金代表吉祥和财富，也是良好的投资和婚礼礼品。
The month-long festive season, mainly in the run-up to Diwali, which falls on Nov. 8 this year, and the wedding season through February usually see high gold demand, as many Indians consider the yellow metal to represent luck and wealth, as well as good investments and wedding gifts.
根据工商部数据，9月份黄金进口额降至18亿美元，而去年同期为96亿美元。在4月至9月期间，即本财年上半年，进口额下降27.3%至192.7亿美元。
According to Commerce and Industry Ministry data, gold imports in September fell to $1.8 billion from $9.6 billion in the same month last year. In the April-September period, or the first half of the current financial year, imports fell 27.3% to $19.27 billion.
黄金进口下降始于今年早些时候，特别是5月之后，当时莫迪呼吁消费者限制购买黄金一年，以节约外汇储备，其政府宣布将黄金进口关税从6%上调至15%。
The drop in gold imports began earlier this year, notably after May, when Modi called on consumers to limit gold purchases for a year to conserve foreign exchange reserves and his government announced a hike in the gold import duty to 15% from 6%.
上个月，总理再次呼吁全国民众远离黄金。莫迪在X平台发布的视频信息中说：“如果是休闲出国旅行，就不应该去。如果是去国外举办婚礼，也不应该去。……如果不是必要，也不要买金子。”钦奈马德拉斯经济学院院长N·R·巴努穆尔蒂认为，黄金需求暴跌背后有两个因素。“一是进口关税上调，二是今年早些时候国际金价因中东冲突持续而大幅上涨，随后又回落，”他对《日经亚洲》表示。
Last month, the prime minister again asked the nation to stay away from gold. In a video message posted on X, Modi said, "Overseas trips, if you are going for leisure, should not be done. If you are getting married abroad, [then] that should not be done. ... And if it is not necessary, do not buy gold either." N. R. Bhanumurthy, director of the Madras School of Economics in Chennai, sees two factors behind the plummeting demand for gold. "One could be the hike in the import duty, and the second is because of the sharp jump in international prices earlier this year amid the continued Middle East conflict before the prices fell," he told Nikkei Asia.
国际金价已从今年年初的高点回落，但疲软的货币使得本地金价保持在较高水平。
International gold prices have fallen from their peak at the start of this year, but a weaker currency keeps local prices higher.
“为了儿子一周岁生日这个特殊日子，我给他买了22K金的小首饰，”新德里居民Inderjeet Kaur对《日经亚洲》表示。“我知道金价从近期高点有所回落，但仍比去年贵得多。”她说，本月初她购买首饰的那家店标价为每10克13.6万卢比（约合1429美元），高于去年10月的11.2万卢比。
"I bought 22-karat gold tiny jewelry items for my baby boy on the special occasion of his first birthday," Inderjeet Kaur, a New Delhi resident, told Nikkei Asia. "I know gold prices have come down from the recent peak, but it is still much more expensive than last year." Earlier this month, she said the store where she bought the jewelry was pricing gold at 136,000 rupees ($1,429) per 10 grams, higher than the 112,000 rupees it was charging last October.
印度商部数据显示，印度上月白银进口也大幅下滑，同比减少49.1%至6.65亿美元。“金银进口均出现放缓，”商务秘书Rajesh Agrawal近日在简报会上表示。“我认为其中一个原因可能是关税提高。”部分消费者认为，莫迪的呼吁对购物者决策影响有限。“眼下婚嫁季也快到了，人们不得不购买贵金属，尤其是黄金，这是我们仪式中必不可少的一环，”一位只愿透露名字Neelam的女买家在新德里一家珠宝店对《日经亚洲》表示。
India's silver imports also fell last month, dropping 49.1% year-on-year to $665 million, the ministry data shows. "There has been a slowdown in imports of both gold and silver," Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said in a recent briefing. "I think one reason could be higher duties." Some consumers believe Modi's appeal has had a limited impact on shoppers' decisions. "Now that the wedding season is also approaching, people have to buy precious metals, especially gold, which is an essential part of our ceremonies," Neelam, a female buyer who preferred to share only her first name, told Nikkei Asia in a jewelry store in New Delhi.
世界黄金协会10月20日发布的报告指出，随着市场步入关键的节庆和婚嫁旺季，印度季节性黄金需求正逐渐升温。“制造商反映订单流向良好，零售商正在补库存以应对季节性需求，而业内反馈显示进店客流有所改善，”报告称。
A World Gold Council report published on Oct. 20 notes that seasonal gold demand in India is gaining traction as the market enters the key festive and wedding period. "Manufacturers are reporting healthy order flows as retailers replenish inventories to meet this seasonal demand, while industry feedback points to improving in-store footfall," the report says.
然而，一线零售商描绘的图景截然不同，表明印度贵金属进口短期内不太可能反弹。据新德里一家零售珠宝店店主Ashish Gupta称，国内黄金和白银库存足以满足节庆和婚嫁季需求。
However, some retailers on the ground paint a different picture, suggesting India's precious metal imports are unlikely to rebound anytime soon. According to Ashish Gupta, a retail jewelry store owner in the capital, domestic gold and silver stocks are sufficient to meet festive and wedding-season demand.
他还指出，客流量较去年下降约 30%。他补充说：“过去购买 10 克 [黄金] 制品的顾客，现在转而购买 5 克的；而在送礼方面，他们选择的则是更轻的制品和银饰。”作为仅次于中国的世界第二大黄金消费市场，印度需求的疲软可能会影响国际金价，但巴努穆尔蒂表示：“只有当这种趋势同时出现在印度和中国时，才有可能 [产生影响]。”
He also noted customer traffic is down about 30% from last year. "Those who used to buy items worth 10 grams [of gold] are now going for 5 grams," he added, "while for gifting they are going for even lighter weight articles and silver items." As the world's second-largest gold-consuming market after China, India's waning appetite could affect international prices, but "it's possible [only] when this trend is seen in both India and China together," Bhanumurthy said.
与印度不同，中国正在创纪录地购买黄金。据世界黄金协会称，中国人民银行——北京的中央银行——在 9 月宣布增持 23 吨黄金储备，这是自 2023 年 10 月以来最大单月增持，将其连续买入纪录延长至 23 个月。
Unlike India, China is making record purchases. The People's Bank of China, Beijing's central bank, announced in September that it added 23 tons to its gold reserves, the largest increase since October 2023, extending its buying streak to 23 consecutive months, according to the World Gold Council.
巴努穆尔蒂说：“黄金不仅用于首饰，还用于制造业。因此，如果印度和中国的需求都出现下降，那么国际金价有可能会下跌。”
"Gold is just not used for ornaments but also in manufacturing," Bhanumurthy said. "So if there is a declining demand in India and China, then it's possible that international prices could come down."