农业信贷银行（Agricole SA）与法国竞争对手一道报告第三季度利润增长，但警告称，法国近期的动荡可能在未来几个月影响当地业务。
Agricole SA joined its French rivals in reporting higher profit for the third quarter, but warned that the recent turmoil in France could hurt business there in coming months.
净利润较去年同期增长18%，达到19.9亿欧元（22.3亿美元），法国零售网络收入创下新高，企业及投资银行业务录得第三季度最佳营收。虽然这与其他法国银行的乐观业绩大致相符，但首席执行官奥利维尔·加瓦尔达（Olivier Gavalda）表示，该国的财政和政治不稳定可能影响未来的贷款需求。
Net income rose 18% from a year earlier to €1.99 billion ($2.23 billion), with revenue at the French retail network at a record and corporate and investment banking posting its best top line for a third quarter. While that broadly mirrors the upbeat results of other French banks, Chief Executive Officer Olivier Gavalda said the fiscal and political instability in the country could impact loan demand going forward.
“我们知道，目前法国整体的投资请求和项目正在放缓，”加瓦尔达在一次电话会议上对记者说。“因此，合理推测我们可能会看到贷款申请减少，风险或许会增加。当然，我们希望不会这样，但我们非常谨慎。”这是法国银行高管发出的最尖锐警告，表明导致该国借贷成本上升的财政僵局可能波及金融行业，而该行业迄今对风险持相当乐观的看法。农业信贷银行是对法国风险敞口最大的大型银行之一，这也是加瓦尔达将海外增长列为其战略重点的原因之一。
“We know that today, investment requests and projects in France overall are slowing down,” Gavalda told reporters on a call. “So it’s a safe bet to think that we may see fewer loan applications and perhaps an increase in risk. We hope it won’t be the case, of course, but we’re being very cautious.”The comments are the starkest warning yet from a French bank executive that the fiscal impasse that has driven up borrowing costs in the country could ripple through the finance industry, which has so far taken a fairly benign view of the risks. Credit Agricole is among the large banks most exposed to the country, which is one reason why Gavalda has made growth abroad a key priority of his strategy.
该集团层面持有约260亿欧元的法国国债（OATs）敞口。大多数分析师认为，此类持有对该国贷款机构的直接影响可控，但警告称，借贷成本上升和经济放缓等二轮效应可能对其造成影响。加瓦尔达也表达了同样的担忧。
The bank has, at the group level, about €26 billion in exposure to French government bonds known as OATs. Most analysts agree that the direct impact from such holdings is manageable for the country’s lenders, but caution that second-round effects such as higher borrowing costs and an economic slowdown could impact them. Gavalda echoed those concerns.
“我们对未来几个月可能出现的更具挑战性的宏观经济情景保持谨慎，”他说。
“We’re remaining cautious in anticipation of a more challenging macroeconomic scenario in the coming months,” he said.
迄今为止，法国业务并未显现出太多疲软迹象，零售网络收入较去年同期增长17%，利润增长33%，反映出该国贷款持续重新定价。
So far, the French business isn’t showing much evidence of weakness, with revenue at the retail networks rising 17% from a year earlier and profit jumping 33%, reflecting an ongoing repricing of loans in the country.
在意大利，这是法国农业信贷银行（Credit Agricole）法国境外最大的市场，营收增长了3.8%。自去年接管以来，加尔达一直不得不应对一系列正在重塑该国金融格局的交易提案。为捍卫自身利益，该银行已逐步增持当地合作伙伴贝兰科BPM股份公司（Banco BPM SpA）的股份，后者近年来曾是两起独立收购提案的目标，持股比例现已升至略低于30%。
In Italy, Credit Agricole’s biggest market outside France, revenue rose 3.8%. Since taking over last year, Gavalda has had to contend with a series of deal proposals that are reshaping the financial landscape in that country. To defend its interests, the bank has gradually raised its stake in local partner Banco BPM SpA, a target of two separate takeover proposals in recent years, to just under 30%.
周四，蒙特代帕斯基迪锡纳股份公司（Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA）的股东投票反对其管理层发起对BPM收购要约的计划，这让加尔达在评估下一步行动时获得了一些喘息空间。法国农业信贷银行已公开表示，将其意大利业务与贝兰科BPM的业务合并将是其首选结果。
On Thursday, shareholders of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA voted against a plan by its management to start an offer for BPM, giving Gavalda some breathing room as he assesses the next steps. Credit Agricole has said publicly that combining its Italian operations with those of Banco BPM would be its preferred outcome.
“我们没有错过蒙特帕斯基股东大会上发生的事情，”加尔达表示。“我们将非常密切关注，并对从今以后意大利可能发生的一切保持警惕。”法国农业信贷银行一直在研究一系列加强其在意大利业务的方案，包括可能收购贝兰科BPM，但知情人士表示，此类交易的政治和融资方面都会面临困难。这部分是因为，与法国农业信贷集团不同，上市实体法国农业信贷银行（Credit Agricole SA）的资本缓冲相对较小。该缓冲已降至11.2%，略低于预期。
“We didn’t miss what happened at the Monte Paschi general meeting,” Gavalda said. “We’ll be paying very close attention and staying vigilant to everything that might happen in Italy from now on.”Credit Agricole has been studying a range of options to strengthen its business in Italy, including a potential acquisition Banco BPM, but the politics and financing of such a deal would be difficult, people familiar with the matter have said. That’s in part because unlike Credit Agricole Group, the publicly traded entity Credit Agricole SA has a relatively small capital buffer. That buffer declined to 11.2%, slightly lower than expected.
除意大利外，法国农业信贷银行也在德国扩张，本月早些时候同意收购德国工业银行股份公司（IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG）。去年，这家法国公司收购了德国租赁公司默卡租赁（Merca Leasing）。它已设定目标，到2028年底将该国的客户基数翻一番。
Apart from Italy, Credit Agricole is also expanding in Germany, agreeing earlier this month to acquire IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG. Last year, the French firm bought German leasing company Merca Leasing. It has set a goal to double the client base in the country by the end of 2028.
第三季度，这家法国银行的收益因印度一家资产管理合资企业首次公开募股带来的2.05亿欧元收益而得到提振。利润还反映了企业与投资银行业务的强劲表现，投资银行业务和股票交易收入实现两位数增长，固定收益交易收入增长8.3%。
In the third quarter, the French bank’s earnings were bolstered by a €205 million gain from the initial public offering of an asset management joint venture in India. Profit also reflected a strong performance in the corporate and investment bank, with double-digit revenue increases in investment banking and equities trading and 8.3% higher income from fixed income trading.