
与弗拉基米尔·普京的一次通话,让两位意想不到的领导人站到了全球外交的舞台中央。但乌克兰希望芬兰总统亚历山大·斯图布和挪威首相约纳斯·加尔·斯特勒与俄罗斯领导人通话,绝非偶然。
A phone call with Vladimir Putin has put two unlikely leaders at the center of global diplomacy. But it’s no accident that Ukraine wanted Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre on the line with the Russian leader.
据熟悉两人互动情况的人士透露,这对搭档有着长期合作的历史,凭借二十年的友谊,在国际政治中发挥了超越其国家综合国力的影响力。今年早些时候,正是他们主动联系美国总统唐纳德·特朗普,就其扬言夺取格陵兰岛一事进行沟通。几个月后,他们又促成约30位领导人签署呼吁,要求监管先进人工智能模型。
The duo have a long history of working together, leveraging two decades of friendship to punch above their countries’ collective weight in international politics, according to people familiar with their dynamic. They were behind overtures to US President Donald Trump earlier this year over his threats to take Greenland. Months later, they got roughly 30 leaders to sign a call to regulate advanced AI models.
尽管如此,本周当斯图布和斯特勒应乌克兰要求联系普京,试图在莫斯科全面入侵近五年后推动和平进程时,许多盟友感到惊讶。
Still, many allies were astonished this week when Stubb and Støre contacted Putin at Ukraine’s behest to try and nudge the peace process forward nearly five years into Moscow’s all-out invasion.
此次通话也与美国特使进行了协调,这是自法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙于2025年7月致电以来,乌克兰的欧洲盟友首次直接与普京接触。通话迅速将斯图布和斯特勒推向聚光灯下,使他们成为欧洲最新的俄罗斯对话渠道——尽管欧洲领导人仍在争吵,由谁代表他们参与任何和平谈判。
The call, also coordinated with US envoys, was the first direct contact Ukraine’s European allies have had with Putin since French President Emmanuel Macron placed a call in July 2025. And it quickly put Stubb and Støre in the limelight as Europe’s latest Russia interlocutor — even as European leaders continue to quarrel over who should represent them in any peace talks.
虽然此次接触并非人人欢迎,但它确实为欧洲在关键时刻站上谈判桌提供了新机会。美国对乌克兰态度降温,基辅的军事和财政需求与日俱增,欧洲面临着能维持支持多久的拷问。与此同时,法国、德国、意大利等其他传统重量级国家都陷入政治危机或面临即将到来的选举。
While the outreach wasn’t unanimously well-received, it does present a new chance for Europe to be at the negotiating table during a pivotal moment. The US is cooling on Ukraine, Kyiv’s military and financial needs are mounting and Europe is confronting questions about how long it can sustain its support. Meanwhile, other traditional heavyweights like France, Germany and Italy are all mired in political crises or upcoming elections.

乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基周二对记者表示:“芬兰和挪威表明,他们想打开另一条沟通渠道,以便欧洲获取信息不只通过美国,俄罗斯也能直接听到某些声音。”
“Finland and Norway are showing that they want to open another channel of communication, so that Europe can receive information not only through the United States and Russia can hear certain things directly,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters on Tuesday.
斯图布(58岁)和斯特勒(66岁)坚称他们不是中立的调解人:“我们100%为乌克兰工作,”斯图布周二表示。
Stubb, 58, and Støre, 66, insist they’re not neutral brokers: “We work 100% for Ukraine,” Stubb said Tuesday.
相反,两人认为自己适合做斯图布所谓的“后台”工作,为法国、德国、英国、意大利和欧盟等主要大国铺路,让它们进场谈判。
Instead, the two see themselves as well-suited to doing what Stubb calls “back office” work, paving the way for major powers — like France, Germany, the UK, Italy and the European Union — to come in and negotiate.
据一位知情人士透露,斯特勒今年夏天做过一些这类工作,在奥斯陆会见了一位俄罗斯前高级官员。该官员告诉斯特勒,欧洲应该与普京对话,而不是发出最后通牒。斯特勒办公室拒绝置评。斯图布办公室拒绝置评。
Støre did some of that work this past summer, meeting with a former senior Russian official in Oslo, according to a person familiar with the get-together. The official told Støre that Europe should talk to Putin and not issue ultimatums. Støre's office declined to comment. Stubb’s office declined to comment.
来自建立在信任基础上的社会,斯图布和斯特勒设法培养出了一套行之有效的关系和沟通方式,经常互相交谈。
Coming from societies built on trust, Stubb and Støre have managed to cultivate a relationship and communication style that works, speaking to each other often.
一位了解他们合作方式的人士说:“他们很合拍。”此人表示,斯图布想在欧洲和全球层面着眼大局,这与斯特勒产生了共鸣。
They click, said one person familiar with the how they work. Stubb wants to think big, on a European and global scale, and that resonates with Støre, the person said.
据两位知情人士透露,这种“双人组合”策略是有意为之——他们互相掩护,在艰难谈判中分担彼此的压力。上述人士均以匿名条件谈论两位领导人的关系。
The tag team strategy is intentional — they give each other cover and take some pressure off each other in difficult negotiations, according to two people familiar with their work. The people all spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the leaders’ relationship.
斯图布和斯特勒于2008年担任外交大臣时初次相识。斯特勒本月早些时候在奥斯陆的一次演讲中回忆,初次在斯德哥尔摩会面时,以铁人三项和高尔夫爱好者著称的斯图布邀请斯特勒晨跑。
Stubb and Støre first met in 2008 working as foreign ministers. Stubb, known as an avid triathlete and golfer, invited Støre for an early morning run during their first encounter in Stockholm, Støre recalled in a speech in Oslo earlier this month.
同年12月诺贝尔和平奖颁奖典礼后,两人在奥斯陆森林里进行越野滑雪,挪威《晚邮报》刊登了一张照片记录了这一幕。
After the Nobel Peace Prize award ceremony in December that year, they went cross-country skiing in Oslo’s forests, documented in a picture published by Norway’s Aftenposten newspaper.

“我们曾在瑞士阿尔卑斯山和许多其他地方一起跑步,”斯特勒说。“我的‘秘诀’——我想和大家分享——是为了‘坚持下去’,邀请阿莱克西说话,而我负责倾听。”
“We have gone for runs in the Swiss Alps and many other places,” Støre said. “And my ‘trick’ — which I want to share with you — for ‘keeping going’ is to invite Alex to talk, while I listen.”
斯图布在2017年出版的著作《阿莱克西》中称斯特勒为“一位热爱运动的家伙”,并表示两人已成为“挚友”。这对搭档的另一个共同点是都具有亲法背景。两人均曾在法国求学——斯图布在索邦大学,斯特勒在巴黎政治学院——并都讲一口流利的法语。
Stubb, in his book “Alex” published in 2017, called Støre “a sporty fellow” and said they’d become “good friends.”Another parallel the duo share is their Francophile background. Both have studied in France — Stubb at the Sorbonne and Støre at Sciences Po — and speak fluent French.
“从外部来看,我们得到的印象是两位领导人相处融洽,”挪威国际事务研究所研究主任克里斯汀·豪格维克说。“我们知道私人关系很重要——了解对方如何运作和思考。”两人正在延续北欧地区闻名数十年的和平外交传统——尤其是诺贝尔和平奖的故乡挪威。奥斯陆和平研究所高级研究员克里斯托弗·利登表示,这种工作的标志是与所有人对话并赢得他们的信任。
“From the outside, we get the impression of two leaders who get along,” said Kristin Haugevik, research director at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. “We know that personal relationships matter — understanding how the other side works and thinks.”The two are building on decades of peace diplomacy that the Nordic region is known for — and especially Norway, home of the Nobel Peace Prize. The hallmark of that work is talking to everyone and earning their trust, said Kristoffer Lidén, senior researcher at the Peace Research Institute Oslo.
“对话并不排除持续的军事支持,”利登说。“风险在于这被视为示弱——在战争进行期间谈论痛苦的妥协,会发出软弱的信号。”欧洲领导人一再主张普京只懂得强硬,并以此为由证明向乌克兰提供军事援助的正当性。因此,这对搭档致电普京招致一些盟友的指责。
“Talking does not exclude continued military support,” Lidén said. “The risk is that this is seen as being accommodating — that talking about painful compromises while the war goes on sends a signal of weakness.”European leaders have repeatedly argued that Putin only understands strength, and used that to justify their military aid to Ukraine. Accordingly, the duo’s Putin call drew rebukes from some allies.

“很明显普京不想要和平,所以人们应该非常谨慎,不要给他提供机会,”丹麦首相梅特·弗雷泽里克森在赫尔辛基对记者说,并补充称她对这一“单独行动”持怀疑态度。
“It’s clear that Putin doesn’t want peace, so one should be very cautious about giving him opportunities,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told reporters in Helsinki, adding that she was skeptical of the “solo initiative.”
爱沙尼亚外交部长马尔古斯·察赫克纳周四表示,此次通话“破坏了我们的团结”,给俄罗斯提供了宣传机会,将其包装为乌克兰的盟友“去向普京乞求和平”。挪威和芬兰辩称,她们有天然的理由——并得到乌克兰的支持——在对俄接触问题上发挥主导作用。
The call “breaks our unity,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said Thursday, handing Russia an opportunity for propaganda it spins as Ukraine’s allies “going to Putin to plead for peace.”Norway and Finland argue they have a natural case — and Ukraine’s backing — to lead on outreach to Russia.
“我们与这些国家的关系确实非常好。它们确实提供了帮助,”泽连斯基周二对记者表示,强调这些国家共同关注乌克兰未来的安全安排,因为芬兰和挪威都与俄罗斯接壤。
“We really have very good relations with these countries. They truly help,” Zelenskyy told reporters Tuesday, underscoring the countries’ shared concern about Ukraine’s future security arrangement, given Finland and Norway both border Russia.
芬兰长达1300多公里(800英里)的边境线占北约军事联盟东翼的一半以上,而挪威漫长的海岸线紧邻俄罗斯的北方舰队,其中包括核动力潜艇。在北极地区,挪威还与俄罗斯共同拥有斯瓦尔巴群岛。在那里的巴伦支海,担任外交大臣时的斯特勒曾于2010年与莫斯科就曾有争议的区域谈判达成了一项解决方案。
Finland’s more than 1,300-kilometer (800-mile) border is more than half of the NATO military alliance’s eastern flank, while Norway’s long coastline sits close to Russia’s northern fleet, which includes nuclear powered submarines. In the Arctic, Norway also jointly inhabits the Svalbard archipelago with Russia. There, in the Barents Sea, Støre negotiated a resolution with Moscow in 2010 as foreign minister over the once-disputed area.
与此同时,斯图布于2017年被芬兰前总统、诺贝尔和平奖得主马尔蒂·阿赫蒂萨里亲自挑选,担任CMI(一家由后者创立的和平调解组织)主席。
Stubb, meanwhile, was handpicked in 2017 by former Finnish president and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Martti Ahtisaari as chairman of CMI, a peace mediation organization the latter had founded.

但这对外交搭档此前也曾遭遇逆风。他们就格陵兰岛问题向特朗普伸出橄榄枝,却引发了特朗普的愤怒回应,后者抱怨自己没有获得诺贝尔和平奖,并宣称:“我不再觉得有义务纯粹为和平着想。”而欧洲领导人对接触普京的疑虑不太可能消退。
But the diplomatic duo has faced headwinds before. Their Trump outreach over Greenland triggered an angry response from Trump, who groused about his lack of a Nobel Peace Prize and proclaimed: “I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace.”And European leaders’ doubts about contacting Putin are unlikely to abate.
尽管如此,鉴于法国发生骚乱、德国极右翼势力抬头、英国首相频繁更迭以及特朗普对意大利总理梅洛尼感到不满,斯图布和斯特勒目前可能是与普京对话的一个现实选择。
Still, with riots in France, the far right ascendant in Germany, frequently changing prime ministers in Britain and Trump souring on Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Stubb and Støre may be one realistic option to talk to Putin for the moment.
“否则,”奥斯陆和平研究所研究员利登表示,“这一进程可能仅由美国、俄罗斯和中国主导,导致欧洲的立场及其在谈判桌上的席位变得不明朗。”
“Otherwise,” said Lidén, the Peace Research Institute Oslo researcher, “the process might be left solely to the US, Russia and China, leaving Europe’s position and its seat at the table unclear.”