，如果通胀前景不改善，知情人士透露。
Central Bank officials are prepared to raise interest rates in December if the inflation outlook doesn’t improve, people familiar with the situation said.
鉴于当前数据以及中东战争带来的经济冲击，可能还需要再加息25个基点以遏制物价上涨，上述人士表示。他们要求不具名，因为相关讨论属于私密性质。
Given current data and economic fallout from the Middle East war, another quarter-point hike will likely be needed to curb price gains, said the people, asking not to be identified because discussions on the matter are private.
他们强调，目前尚未作出任何决定，局势可能迅速变化，特别是由于中东局势发展的不可预测性。欧洲央行发言人拒绝置评。
They stressed that nothing has been decided and the situation can change quickly, especially due to the unpredictable nature of developments in the Middle East. An ECB spokesperson declined to comment.
决策者周四早些时候按兵不动，暂缓了自伊朗战争冲击能源市场并将通胀推至2%目标近两倍以来的第三次加息。行长拉加德宣布将提前卸任，这在很大程度上掩盖了会议进程。她称利率的“前进方向明确”。市场认同这一判断，定价显示年底再加息25个基点的概率为85%。市场押注紧缩将延续至2027年，且至少还会再行动一次。
Policymakers earlier Thursday held fire on a third increase in borrowing costs since the Iran war jolted energy markets and sent inflation to almost twice the 2% target. President Christine Lagarde, who’s announcement that she’ll step down early largely overshadowed proceedings, called the direction of travel for rates “clear.”Markets agree, pricing an 85% chance of a another quarter-point step at year-end. They’re betting tightening will continue into 2027 with at least one more move.
拉加德表示，本周曾讨论加息，随后她和同事们决定将存款利率维持在2.5%，这是货币政策被视为对经济具有中性影响的区间上限。知情人士称，本周的讨论非常激烈。
Lagarde said a hike was discussed this week before she and her colleagues opted to leave the deposit rate at 2.5%, the upper limit of a range within which monetary policy is deemed to have a neutral effect on the economy. This week’s discussions were very intense, the people said.
虽然拉加德淡化了通胀蔓延至能源以外领域的风险，但她强调风险偏向上行。这与经济形势形成对比，经济面临的危险是扩张不及预期。
While Lagarde played down the risk that inflation is broadening beyond energy, she stressed that risks are skewed to the upside. That stands in contrast to the economy, where the danger is that expansion falls short.
周五将公布的数据预计显示，第三季度经济增长放缓至0.2%，低于第二季度的0.6%，不过后者因爱尔兰的强劲表现而被夸大。消费者物价涨幅预计将从3.8%加快至3.9%。
Data on Friday are expected to show growth moderated to 0.2% in the third quarter from 0.6% in the second, though the latter was juiced by a bumper result in Ireland. Consumer-price gains are forecast to quicken to 3.9% from 3.8%.
大卫·鲍威尔（David Powell） and 西蒙娜·德莱·基艾（Simona Delle Chiaie）表示：“管理委员会正在为结束其紧缩周期奠定基础，尽管欧洲央行并未彻底关上12月再度加息的大门。”“拉加德最近的言论更加强调了能源冲击外溢效应迹象有限以及金融环境收紧的情况，这巩固了我们的观点。”
“The Governing Council is laying the groundwork to bring its tightening cycle to a close, although the ECB has left the door open to another hike in December,” David Powell and Simona Delle Chiaie said. “Our view has been reinforced by Lagarde’s recent comments, which have put greater emphasis on the limited signs of spillovers from the energy shock and the tightening in financial conditions.”