几十年来，美国与加拿大一直致力于打造全球最紧密的经济伙伴关系之一，供应链、企业和贸易日益交织在一起。
For decades, the United States and Canada worked to build one of the world’s closest economic partnerships, with supply chains, businesses and trade increasingly intertwined.
但如今，随着两国深陷贸易战，加拿大正采取重大举措以减少对美国的依赖。它正在与欧盟建立更紧密的经济联系，并即将成为欧盟史上首个“准成员”。“经济一体化如今正被武器化，关税正被用作施压手段，”加拿大总理马克·卡尼上个月在议会演讲中对欧盟议员说。
But now, with the two countries in the thick of a trade war, Canada is taking a dramatic step to reduce its reliance on the United States. It is forging closer economic ties with the European Union and is set to become its first-ever “associate member.”“Economic integration is now being weaponized, and tariffs are being used as a means of pressure,” Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told EU lawmakers last month in a parliamentary address.
卡尼指的是唐纳德·特朗普总统不断升级的对加贸易战。今年夏天，特朗普对价值约200亿美元的加拿大商品加征50%的关税，在某些情况下甚至实施全面进口禁令。加拿大对等征收了这些关税，并誓言对任何未来的关税采取同样的回应。即将公布的数据很可能显示，两国之间的贸易因此出现下降。
Carney was referring to President Donald Trump’s ramped-up trade war with Canada. Over the summer Trump levied 50% tariffs on around $20 billion worth of Canadian goods and, in some cases, imposing outright import bans. Canada matched those duties and has vowed to match any future tariffs. Forthcoming data is likely to show trade between the two nations fell as a result.
目前尚不确定欧盟与加拿大的这一伙伴关系会以何种形式呈现，甚至不确定它最终能否实现，因为欧盟关键成员国德国和法国的官员已表示反对。卡尼也遭到了一些加拿大官员的批评，他们认为这损害了加拿大的主权。
It’s uncertain how the EU-Canada partnership could look and whether it will even come to fruition at all, as officials from Germany and France, key EU member states, have voiced opposition. Carney has also been met with backlash from Canadian officials who feel it compromises Canada’s sovereignty.
这并未阻止卡尼和欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩。周四，他们邀请其他国家加入这项他们称为“未来联盟”的倡议。“在一个竞争日益激烈的世界里，主权和独立不再仅仅是单独行动的自由——而是共同行动的能力，”冯德莱恩周四在蒙特利尔举行的为期两天的加拿大-欧盟峰会上发表讲话时说。
That hasn’t stopped Carney and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. On Thursday they invited other countries to join in the initiative they dubbed “Alliance for the Future.”“In a world of growing rivalries, sovereignty and independence are no longer just the freedom to act alone — it is the capacity to act together,” von der Leyen said in an address Thursday at this week’s two-day Canada-EU summit in Montreal.
“这就是为什么我们将建立一个面向未来的联盟，”她说，“而且我们从加拿大开始。”关于加拿大以联系成员身份加入欧盟可能是什么样子，目前透露的细节很少，不过卡尼本周早些时候表示，他打算利用此次峰会作为进一步敲定下一步举措的机会。
“And this is why we will build an alliance for the future,” she said. “And we start with Canada.”Few details have been shared about what Canada’s association membership with the EU could look like, though Carney said earlier this week he intends to use the summit as an opportunity to further nail down the next steps.
尽管与美国的贸易破裂是卡尼推动与欧盟走近的动因，但与美国的贸易战影响并不局限于贸易。从度假到投资，以下是这场冲击波在两国经济中的具体表现。
And while trade ruptures with the US were the impetus for Carney’s push with the EU, the impact of the trade war with the US has not been limited to trade. From vacations to investments, here’s how the fallout is showing up across both economies.
虽然特朗普对加拿大商品征收的关税以及卡尼在夏季对美国商品采取的反制措施很可能对贸易造成了压力，但它们只是两国贸易更广泛下滑中的最新一章。
While Trump’s tariffs on Canadian goods and Carney’s retaliatory measures against American goods over the summer likely weighed on trade, they’d represent just the latest chapter in a broader decline in trade between the two countries.
美加之间的贸易总额自2022年以来一直在下降。在这三年中，年度降幅最大的是去年，当时特朗普对钢铁和铝征收了50%的关税，而这两种商品是美国从加拿大进口的主要商品之一。
The total value of trade between the US and Canada has fallen since 2022. Of those three years, the largest annual drop came last year, when Trump imposed 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum, two of the top goods the US imports from Canada.
加拿大的大部分出口——历史上在70%到80%之间——都销往美国。
Most of Canada’s exports — historically between 70% and 80% — go to the US.
尽管美国仍然是加拿大迄今为止最大的出口市场，但根据加拿大全球事务部首席经济学家办公室去年发布的一份报告，自特朗普重返白宫以来，美国在加拿大出口中所占的份额已大幅下降，反映出贸易不确定性的加剧。
While the US remains Canada’s largest export market by far, its share of Canadian exports has fallen sharply since Trump returned to office, reflecting heightened trade uncertainty, according to a report published last year by Global Affairs Canada’s Office of the Chief Economist.
在此期间，加拿大大幅增加了对欧洲和中亚的出口，因为它寻求摆脱对美国市场的依赖。
Over this period, Canada significantly increased its exports to Europe and Central Asia as it looked to wean itself off its reliance on the US market.
卡尼在周四公布一项名为“建设更强大加拿大的计划”的倡议时发表声明称，这一转变旨在“为加拿大人创造更大的安全与繁荣”。除了贸易之外，该举措还旨在加强国防和提升公共安全。
Carney, in a statement Thursday unveiling an initiative titled “The Plan for a Stronger Canada,” said that the shift is intended “to create greater security and prosperity for Canadians.”In addition to trade, the effort is aimed at strengthening national defense and boosting public safety.
酒类在两国贸易中所占份额相对较小，但它已成为两国经济关系恶化的最明显象征之一。
Alcohol accounts for a relatively small share of trade between the two countries, but it has become one of the most visible symbols of their deteriorating economic relationship.
2025年3月，加拿大各省的酒类管理局将美国产品下架。顾客走进政府经营的酒类商店时，看到的是空荡荡的货架和“改买加拿大货”的标牌。
In March 2025, provincial liquor boards across Canada pulled American products from their shelves. Customers visiting the government-run liquor stores were met with empty shelves and “BUY CANADIAN INSTEAD” signs.
这一影响立即体现在贸易数据中，美国对加拿大的酒类出口骤降，并持续远低于此前水平。
The fallout showed up immediately in trade data, with US alcohol exports to Canada plunging and remaining well below previous levels.
美国烈酒受到的冲击尤为严重。据美国蒸馏酒委员会的数据，2025年第二季度对加拿大的出口降至970万美元的历史低点，随后在第三季度和第四季度分别回升至2000万美元以上。
American spirits were hit particularly hard. Exports to Canada fell to a record low of $9.7 million in the second quarter of 2025 before rebounding to more than $20 million in each of the third and fourth quarters, according to the Distilled Spirits Council.
此后，报复措施演变为双向。上个月，特朗普对大部分运往美国的加拿大酒类实施了禁令。
The retaliation has since gone both ways. Last month, Trump imposed a ban on most Canadian liquor shipped to the US.
特朗普多次提出让加拿大成为美国第51个州的想法，引发许多加拿大人不满。他最近又将安大略湖更名为“加拿大湖”，进一步加剧了紧张局势。加拿大民众对特朗普的反感在旅行数据中体现得十分明显。
Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of making Canada the 51st state, drawing the ire of many Canadians. He further inflamed tensions recently by renaming Lake Ontario “Lake Canada.”Canadians’ disdain for Trump has been apparent in travel data.
20世纪90年代初，加拿大人赴美旅行达到近8000万人次的峰值，此后几十年稳定在每年约4000万人次。据加拿大统计局的数据，2025年赴美旅行降至2910万人次，为1972年有记录以来除疫情时期外的最低水平。
Canadian visits to the US peaked at nearly 80 million in the early 1990s before settling at around 40 million a year in subsequent decades. In 2025, visits to the US fell to 29.1 million — the lowest level outside the pandemic era since records began in 1972, according to Statistics Canada.
这一下滑正在损害美国企业。据加拿大统计局的数据，2024年加拿大人在美国消费了161亿美元，但2025年降至134亿美元，一年之内减少了27亿美元。
The decline is taking a bite out of US businesses. Canadians spent $16.1 billion in the US in 2024, according to Statistics Canada, but that fell to $13.4 billion in 2025, a $2.7 billion drop in a single year.
加拿大投资者在2026年上半年向美国股市投入781亿加元（约合560亿美元）后，于7月突然掉头，据加拿大统计局的数据，当月抛售了创纪录的310亿加元（约合220亿美元）。
After pouring $78.1 billion CAD (around $56 billion USD) into US stocks in the first half of 2026, Canadian investors abruptly reversed course in July, selling a record $31 billion CAD (around $22 billion USD) according to Statistics Canada.
抛售主要集中在大型美国科技公司的股票上。此前，标普500指数在今年早些时候大幅上涨后，于7月份略微下跌。
The sell-off was concentrated in shares of large US technology companies. It came as the S&P 500 edged lower in July after strong gains earlier in the year.