
美国银行的迈克尔·哈特尼特表示,眼下最大的机会在于大型科技公司的债券,而非股票。
The big opportunity right now is in mega-cap tech bonds — not stocks, according to Bank of America's Michael Hartnett.
对人工智能建设所承担巨额债务的担忧已推高收益率,即便是投资级超大规模科技公司,其债券收益率也高达8%。债券收益率与价格走势相反。哈特尼特是美国银行首席投资策略师,他一直对股市持谨慎态度。
Concerns about the massive amount of debt being taken on for the artificial intelligence buildout have pushed yields higher, with even investment-grade hyperscalers paying out as much as 8%. Bond yields move inversely to prices. So far, some $271 billion in debt and equity has been issued by the hyperscalers this year, said Hartnett, BofA's chief investment strategist, who has been cautious on the stock market.
他表示,今年以来,超大规模科技公司已发行了约2710亿美元的债券和股票。他在周四的一份报告中写道:“买入科技债券中的‘璞玉’。”
"[B]uy tech bond 'diamonds in-rough,'" he wrote in a note Thursday.
“Mag7债券收益率在6%至8%之间颇具吸引力……因为Meta的股票发行表明信贷投资者正获得新的尊重,而人工智能债券相对于股票表现落后的局面已经结束。”
"Mag7 bond yield attractive [at] 6-8% … as META equity issuance signals new respect for credit investors, and AI bond vs. stock underperformance over."
本周,科技股在公司公布财报后大幅下跌,许多公司显示出出人意料的巨额负自由现金流。资本支出依然高得惊人。
Tech stocks have tanked this week after companies reported earnings, with many showing unexpectedly large negative free cash flows. Capital expenditures have remained astronomical.
例如,亚马逊将资本支出预测维持在2200亿美元,但过去十二个月的资金流出达424亿美元。
For instance, Amazon held its capital expenditure forecast at $220 billion, but saw outflows of $42.4 billion for the trailing twelve month period.
Alphabet报告负自由现金流90.7亿美元,并预计全年资本支出总额在1950亿至2050亿美元之间。
Alphabet reported negative free cash flow of $9.07 billion and anticipates full-year capex to total between $195 billion and $205 billion.
就连微软也终于为其人工智能融资进入债券市场,宣布发行250亿美元新债。
Even Microsoft is finally moving into the bond market for its AI financing, announcing $25 billion in new issuance .
然而,Meta Platforms在下一轮融资中转向了股票市场。
Meta Platforms , however, turned to the equity market for its next round of financing.
这家拥有Instagram和WhatsApp的公司上周表示,计划通过股票发行筹集总计950亿美元。
The Instagram and WhatsApp owner said last week it plans to raise a total of $95 billion through stock offerings.
股票发行增加对超大规模科技公司现有股票不利,因为哈特尼特认为这预示着“大规模股票回购的时代已经结束”。
Increased sales of stock are negative for hyperscalers' existing equity, insofar as Hartnett believes it heralds the "era of big stock buybacks [is] over."