
周二美国中期选举的部分竞选可能需要数周时间才能完成重新计票和法庭诉讼,但最终由参议院和众议院决定谁获得席位,如果少数几场竞选决定国会控制权,这一权力可能至关重要。
Some of Tuesday’s US midterm races may take weeks to clear recounts and court challenges, but ultimately the Senate and House of Representatives decide who gets seated, a power that could matter if a handful of contests determine control of Congress.
联邦选举由各州负责举行,并由州官员认证结果。但美国宪法规定,国会两院各自是“本院议员的选举、选举结果和资格的裁判者”,赋予议员在众议院或参议院选举结果受到质疑时拥有最终决定权。
Federal elections are run by states and certified by state officials. But the US Constitution makes each chamber of Congress "the judge of the elections, returns and qualifications of its own members," giving lawmakers the final say when a House or Senate result is contested.
在支持时任总统唐纳德·特朗普的人士于2021年1月6日冲击美国国会大厦、当时共和党试图推翻特朗普在2020年败给民主党人乔·拜登的结果近六年后,专家表示,竞争激烈的竞选可能接近到足以引发挑战,首先从州层面开始,因为两党正在争夺国会控制权。
Nearly six years after supporters of President Donald Trump attacked the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, as Republicans sought to overturn his 2020 loss to Democrat Joe Biden, experts say competitive races could be close enough to trigger challenges, starting at the state level, as the two parties jockey for control of Congress.
“处于重新计票或争议误差范围内的——候选人、外部团体和政府——将会拼死拼活地争夺那些席位,”专注于保护自由、公平和安全选举的非营利组织“各州联合民主中心”高级顾问维多利亚·巴塞蒂表示。
"Those within the recount or contest margin of error – the candidates, outside groups and the administration – will fight those tooth and nail," said Victoria Bassetti, senior advisor at States United Democracy Center, a nonprofit group focused on protecting free, fair and secure elections.
自2000年美国最高法院裁决解决共和党人乔治·W·布什与民主党人阿尔·戈尔之间的总统大选争议以来,选举诉讼激增。加州大学洛杉矶分校法学教授里克·哈森编制的样本显示,2023-2024选举周期创下756起案件的纪录,比2019-2020年增加14.3%,大致是2000年前水平的三倍。
Election litigation has surged since the 2000 US Supreme Court ruling that resolved the presidential contest between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore. A sampling compiled by UCLA law professor Rick Hasen found a record 756 cases during the 2023-2024 election cycle, up 14.3% from 2019-2020 and roughly triple the level before 2000.
国会选举结果可在众议院和参议院均受到候选人和现任议员的挑战。在众议院,败选候选人可依据《联邦争议选举法》对州认证的结果提出挑战。众议院行政委员会审议挑战,并可向全体众议院建议由谁获得席位。
The results of congressional elections can be challenged in both the House and the Senate by candidates and sitting members. In the House, a losing candidate can challenge a state-certified result under the Federal Contested Election Act. The House Administration Committee considers the challenge and can recommend to the full House who should be seated.
在参议院,异议会被提交给参议院规则委员会,该委员会负责审查案件并向全体参议院提出建议。但也可能发生议场争斗。例如,如果一位在任共和党人计划反对一位民主党人的就职并就此进行阻挠议事,民主党人可能会以牙还牙,或者抵制会议以使参议院因缺乏法定人数而无法开会。
In the Senate, challenges are referred to the Senate Rules Committee, which reviews cases and makes recommendations to the full Senate. But floor fights can occur. If, say, a sitting Republican planned to object to the seating of a Democrat and filibuster the issue, Democrats could respond tit-for-tat or boycott the chamber to deny it the quorum to convene.
当新一届国会于1月召开时,众议院中仍未解决的任何争议席位将由新一届众议院而非即将离任的众议院处理。如果有足够多的竞选结果仍未尘埃落定,这可能会使众议院的控制权变得复杂。新一届众议院还必须完成组建并选举议长。党派僵局有时会导致争议席位长期空缺。
Any House contests still unresolved when the new Congress convenes in January would fall to the new House, not the outgoing one. That could complicate control of the chamber if enough races remain unsettled. The new House must also organize and elect a speaker. Partisan gridlock has sometimes left contested seats vacant for extended periods.
密歇根州立大学法学教授布莱恩·卡尔特说:“我认为人们对此恐慌或危言耸听并非好事。但‘1月6日’事件之后,如果说没有潜在的恶作剧空间,那将是天真。”根据众议院网站数据,自1789年第一届国会召开以来,众议院已处理了634起争议选举。参议院记录显示,自1914年参议员开始由直接民选产生以来,参议院至少发生过二十余起争议选举。
"I don't think it's a good idea for people to get panicky or alarmist about it," Michigan State University law professor Brian Kalt said. "But after January 6, it would be naive to say there's no potential for shenanigans." Since the first Congress met in 1789, the House has grappled with 634 contested elections, according to its website. The Senate has had at least two dozen since senators were first chosen by direct popular election in 1914, Senate records show.
共和党目前以微弱优势控制着众议院和参议院,如果民主党设法在每个议院净增四个席位,两院控制权都可能易手。所有435个众议院席位都将改选,而参议院100个席位中仅约三分之一将进行改选。
The House and Senate, which Republicans currently control by slim margins, could change hands if Democrats manage to pick up a net four seats in each chamber. All 435 House seats are up for election, while only about one-third of the Senate's 100 seats are.
特朗普政府已介入今年的选举,起诉要求阻止阿拉斯加在共和党参议员丹·沙利文落选时认证结果,并阻止加利福尼亚州统计超过2万张邮寄选票。
The Trump administration has already intervened in this year's elections, suing to block Alaska from certifying results if Republican Senator Dan Sullivan loses and to prevent California from counting more than 20,000 mail-in ballots.
众议院和参议院均已确立在争议竞选中暂时让候选人就职的做法,以便在结果诉讼或调查期间先行就职。但漫长的法庭争端可能会延迟认证,导致席位空缺。
The House and Senate have each established the practice of seating candidates provisionally in contested races, while results are being litigated or investigated. But lengthy court contests can delay certification and leave seats vacant.
近代历史上,没有任何有争议的选举决定过参议院的控制权,但自1914年以来曾出现过几次险象环生的情况。今年多达七场参议院竞选被评为“难以预测”,专家指出了两个参议院席位空缺数月的先例。
No contested election has determined control of the Senate in recent history, but there have been some close calls since 1914. With as many as seven races rated toss-ups this year, experts point to two examples in which Senate seats remained vacant for months.
2008年,明尼苏达州民主党挑战者阿尔·弗兰肯与共和党参议员诺姆·科尔曼之间的法庭诉讼导致该席位空缺数月。案件最终于2009年7月判决弗兰肯胜诉,距科尔曼任期结束已过去六个月。
In 2008, a Minnesota court battle between Democratic challenger Al Franken and Republican Senator Norm Coleman left the seat open for months. The case was finally resolved in Franken's favor in July 2009, six months after Coleman's term had ended.
1974年新罕布什尔州的一场参议院选举悬而未决的时间甚至更长,参议院无法裁决民主党人约翰·德金与共和党人路易斯·怀曼之间的竞争。州政府的两次重新计票分别宣布了不同的胜者。州法院拒绝介入。参议院选举小组陷入僵局。辩论拖延直到1975年7月,议员们宣布该席位空缺,从而举行特别选举,德金于同年9月在特别选举中获胜。
A 1974 Senate election in New Hampshire went unresolved for even longer, with the Senate unable to decide the contest between Democrat John Durkin and Republican Louis Wyman. Separate state recounts declared different winners. State courts declined to get involved. A Senate election panel deadlocked. Debate dragged on until lawmakers declared the seat vacant in July 1975, allowing for a special election that Durkin won that September.
众议院的有争议选举远多于参议院。非党派选举分析机构“Inside Elections”将目前18场众议院竞选评为“难以预测”,还有更多竞选显示出竞争态势。
The House has had far more contested elections than the Senate. The nonpartisan election analysts at Inside Elections rate 18 current races as toss-ups, while still more appear to be competitive.
自1789年以来,众议院每届选举平均出现略多于五场有争议的竞选,其中大多数发生在19世纪的内战、重建时期、镀金时代和早期吉姆·克劳时代。专家表示,如果民主党赢得众议院控制权,足够大的胜选浪潮可能会使有争议的竞选对最终结果变得无关紧要。
The House has averaged just over five contested races for every election since 1789, with most occurring during the 19th-century Civil War, Reconstruction, Gilded Age and early Jim Crow era. If Democrats win control of the chamber, experts say a large enough wave could make contested races irrelevant to the outcome.
1895年,因公众对经济困境的愤怒,共和党在一场大胜中掌权,创纪录地有38场众议院竞选遭到争议。根据官方众议院记录,结果导致许多竞选在选举举行两年多后仍未尘埃落定。
In 1895, after Republicans swept to power in a landslide election driven by public anger over hard economic times, a record 38 House races were contested. As a result, many races remained undecided more than two years after the election, according to official House records.