10月30日：美国最大的科技公司在2026年前九个月产生了创纪录的现金，但返还给股东的比例却降至至少15年来的最低水平，因为激增的人工智能支出挤压了股票回购。
Oct 30 : The biggest US technology companies generated record amounts of cash in the first nine months of 2026, yet returned the smallest share of it to shareholders in at least 15 years as surging artificial intelligence spending squeezed share buybacks.
这种撤退威胁到科技股股价长期以来的一个支撑来源。随着公司减少回购股份，投资者越来越依赖巨额的人工智能投资带来足够的利润增长，以证明其估值的合理性。
The retreat threatens a long-standing source of support for technology share prices. With companies buying back fewer shares, investors are increasingly dependent on heavy AI investments delivering enough profit growth to justify their valuations.
路透社对LSEG数据和公司财务报告的分析显示，微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta和甲骨文在今年前三个季度将其业务产生的现金的9.3%作为股息和回购返还给股东，低于一年前的27.4%。
Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle returned 9.3 per cent of the cash their businesses generated as dividends and buybacks in the first three quarters of the year, down from 27.4 per cent a year earlier, a Reuters analysis of LSEG data and companies' financial reports showed.
实际上，经营性现金流较上年同期增长29%，达到创纪录的5429亿美元。
Operating cash flow actually rose 29 per cent from a year earlier to a record $542.9 billion.
但受人工智能热潮驱动，资本支出翻倍至5569亿美元，这是自2011年有数据以来，这五家公司的资本支出首次超过其产生的现金。
But capital spending, driven by the AI boom, doubled to $556.9 billion, exceeding the cash the five firms generated for the first time in data going back to 2011.
这使得它们合计出现140亿美元的自由现金流赤字，而一年前则为1435亿美元的盈余。
That left them with a combined free cash flow deficit of $14 billion, against a surplus of $143.5 billion a year earlier.
这种挤压对回购的冲击最大。这五家公司将回购金额削减了83%，降至136亿美元，而一年前为818亿美元。
The squeeze has hit buybacks hardest. The five companies cut repurchases 83 per cent to $13.6 billion, from $81.8 billion a year earlier.
回购首当其冲 股息被投资者视为一种承诺，2026年前九个月的股息支付从一年前的339亿美元增至370亿美元。回购几乎消失。
BUYBACKS FIRST TO GO Dividends, which investors treat as a commitment, rose to $37 billion in the first nine months of 2026 from $33.9 billion a year earlier. Buybacks almost disappeared.
Alphabet和Meta在2026年未回购一股股份，而去年前九个月它们回购了665亿美元。亚马逊不支付股息，自2022年以来未回购股份。
Alphabet and Meta have not repurchased a share in 2026, after buying back $66.5 billion in the first nine months of last year. Amazon pays no dividend and has not bought back shares since 2022.
微软占这五家公司剩余回购的几乎全部，并将其在9月季度的回购从一年前的57亿美元削减至44亿美元。一些公司不再用扣除资本支出后的业务收益来覆盖其派息。
Microsoft accounted for nearly all the five companies’ remaining repurchases, and cut its buybacks to $4.4 billion in the September quarter from $5.7 billion a year earlier. Some companies are no longer covering their payouts from what their businesses earn after capital spending.
由于合并自由现金流（FCF）为负，这五家公司506亿美元的派息实际上是由现金储备、借款或股票出售提供资金的。
With combined free cash flow (FCF) negative, the five companies’ $50.6 billion in payouts was effectively funded from cash reserves, borrowing or share sales.
亚马逊第三季度资本支出达759亿美元，比其运营产生的424亿美元高出近80%，且本季度筹集了481亿美元长期债务。
Amazon’s capital spending of $75.9 billion in the third quarter was almost 80 per cent more than the $42.4 billion its operations generated, and it raised $48.1 billion of long-term debt in the quarter.
Alphabet的自由现金流同样为负，并通过股票出售筹集了约124亿美元、通过债务筹集了290亿美元。
Alphabet’s free cash flow was also negative, and it raised about $12.4 billion from share sales and $29 billion from debt.
隐性成本 回购的缩减比美元数字所暗示的更为重要，因为回购多年来一直在美化每股收益。
THE HIDDEN COST The loss of buybacks matters more than the dollar figures suggest, because buybacks have flattered per-share earnings for years.
当公司回购并注销自身股份时，利润分摊到的股份减少，即使总利润不增长，每股收益也会上升。
When companies buy back and retire their own shares, profits are spread across fewer shares, lifting earnings per share even when total profits do not grow.
据ING统计，Alphabet通过回购在2020年底至2025年间将股份总数减少了9.5%。仅此一项，即便利润不增，每年也为每股收益（EPS）提供了约2%的提振。
Alphabet reduced its share count by 9.5 per cent between the end of 2020 and 2025 through buybacks, ING said. That alone provided a boost of roughly 2 per cent a year to earnings per share (EPS), even without any increase in profits.
失去这一提振后，每股收益必须来自实际利润增长。这是一项更严峻的考验，且正值新数据中心的折旧费用开始上升之际。
Without that boost, per-share earnings must come from actual profit growth. That is a harder test, and it arrives just as depreciation charges on new data centres start to rise.
这也触及了投资者最敏感的神经。摩根大通科技板块专家Mark Schilsky在上周的一份客户研报中表示，投资者“远比关注自由现金流更看重每股收益”。
It also lands where investors are most sensitive. Investors care “so much more about EPS than FCF,” Mark Schilsky, a technology sector specialist at JPMorgan, said in a client note last week.
MSCI发现，科技与通信服务股约占美国市场总值的43.5%，7月份其股东收益率仅为0.28%，而其余板块为1.99%。
Technology and communication services stocks, which account for about 43.5 per cent of US market value, delivered a shareholder yield of just 0.28 per cent in July, against 1.99 per cent for the rest of the market, MSCI found.
看不到尽头 亚马逊表示，预计今年资本支出仍将达约2200亿美元，其他公司也已发出进一步增加的信号。
NO END IN SIGHT Amazon said it still expects about $220 billion of capital spending this year, and the other companies have signalled further increases.
这让大型科技股股东面临的交易与当初签约时截然不同：今天少拿现金，押注人工智能最终能产生足够利润来弥补差额。
That leaves Big Tech shareholders with a different bargain from the one they signed up for, accepting less cash today in exchange for a bet that AI will eventually generate enough profit to make up for it.
富兰克林邓普顿投资管理联席主管Ehren Stanhope表示：“过去15年里，公司越来越多地通过回购和分红将多余资本返还给股东。”
"For the last 15 years, companies increasingly returned excess capital to shareholders through buybacks and dividends," said Ehren Stanhope, co-head of investment management at Franklin Templeton.
“目前的体制可能日益呈现出更多的股权和债务发行，即向投资者募集资本的特征。”
"The current regime may increasingly be characterized by greater equity and debt issuance, a request of capital from investors."