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科技巨头豪掷数万亿美元建设AI,仍需依靠传统业务维持增长Tech giants need legacy businesses to keep growing as they pour trillions into the AI buildout

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科技巨头们正在共同押下一注数万亿美元的赌注,赌的是它们的基础设施支出将带来多年的盈利增长。但那全是未来的事。

The tech megacaps are collectively placing a multitrillion-dollar bet that their infrastructure spending will result in many years of profitable growth. But that's all in the future.

眼下,它们依赖的是传统业务——无论是在线广告、企业软件还是电子商务——来为其人工智能雄心提供资金。

For now, they're reliant on their legacy businesses — whether it's online advertising, business software or e-commerce — to fund their artificial intelligence ambitions.

本季度财报显示,这些核心业务承受着新的压力,并为这些公司能否维持长期高强度支出提供了早期检验。Meta 加入了 Alphabet 和 Amazon 的行列,报告了负的自由现金流,使 Microsoft 成为唯一一家在该领域保持正值的超大规模云服务商。

Earnings this quarter revealed new levels of strain on those core businesses and offered an early test of whether these companies can sustain extended bouts of spending. Meta joined Alphabet and Amazon in reporting negative free cash flow, leaving Microsoft as the lone hyperscaler to remain positive in that realm.

Meta 录得 21.2 亿美元的负自由现金流,而 Amazon 的流出额膨胀至 424 亿美元,Alphabet 达到 90.7 亿美元。Microsoft 的现金生成能力连续第二个季度大幅下降,本次下跌 27% 至 186.3 亿美元,公司表示将转向债券市场融资,因为它继续加大 AI 基础设施支出。

Meta posted negative free cash flow of $2.12 billion, while Amazon's outflows swelled to $42.4 billion and Alphabet's reached $9.07 billion. Microsoft's cash generation declined dramatically for a second straight quarter, this time dropping 27% to $18.63 billion, and the company said it will now turn to the bond market as it continues to ramp up AI infrastructure spending.

过去两周超大规模云服务商的财报发布,恰逢市场对更广泛 AI 行业整体健康状况和稳定性的担忧加剧。利率上升使得公司举债成本更高,给那些已成为全球建设关键力量、却在烧钱的新兴云服务商带来了压力。

Hyperscaler earnings over the past two weeks have coincided with intensifying concerns about the overall health and stability of the broader AI sector. Rising interest rates are making it costlier for companies to raise debt, putting pressure on cash-burning neoclouds that have become critical to the global buildout.

虽然科技巨头们拥有新兴云服务商和其他参与者所不具备的缓冲垫,但投资者最终需要这些历史性的支出水平转化为巨大的新收入来源。本周股价波动显示出投资者的紧张情绪,Alphabet 周四遭遇有史以来最大单日跌幅,Amazon 在财报发布后的盘后交易中也下滑。

While the tech giants have a cushion not afforded to the neoclouds and other players, investors eventually need the historic rates of spending to convert into massive new revenue streams. Nerves are hitting the stocks this week, with Alphabet suffering its steepest drop ever on Thursday and Amazon sliding in extended trading after its report.

亚马逊表示,其零售和广告业务的增长均有所放缓。在线销售额同比增长2%,较一年前的10%有所减速,且未达到分析师的预期。亚马逊营收指引区间的中点低于分析师预期的2445亿美元,对于包含假日购物季的这一季度来说,这一数字尤其令人失望。

Amazon said growth slowed in both its retail and ad business. Online sales gained 2% year over year, decelerating from 10% a year ago and falling short of analysts' estimates. The midpoint of Amazon's revenue guidance came in lower than the $244.5 billion that analysts were expecting, a particularly disappointing figure for the quarter that includes the holiday shopping season.

与此同时,亚马逊预计今年资本支出将达到2200亿美元,而据FactSet数据,分析师预计明年这一数字将超过2800亿美元,该公司自由现金流持续为负。

Meanwhile, Amazon expects capital expenditures this year to reach $220 billion, and analysts project that number will top $280 billion next year, according to FactSet, as the company continues to produce negative free cash flow.

在Meta,投资者对该公司Muse AI智能体应用及相关基础模型的初步成功反应积极,这些产品有望在广告之外开辟新的收入来源。

At Meta, investors have responded favorably to the company's early success with its Muse AI agent app and related foundation models, which present potential new sources of revenue outside of advertising.

但这些努力要显著影响公司整体业务仍需时间,与此同时公司还在持续投入数据中心和计算设备。该公司表示,今年资本支出将高达1450亿美元,分析师预计2027年将超过2100亿美元,同时现金流缺口将进一步扩大。

But it will take time for these efforts to significantly impact the company's overall business while it continues spending on data center and computing gear. Capex will reach as high as $145 billion this year, the company says, and analysts see it passing $210 billion in 2027, alongside a deepening cash flow hole.

上周财报发布后,尽管Meta营收超出预期,投资者仍推动其股价下跌7%。Meta在发布财报后于周一宣布,计划通过发行股票筹集总计950亿美元,以支持其AI投资。Alphabet的财报最令投资者担忧。

Investors sent Meta shares down 7% after the earnings report last week even though the company beat on revenue. Meta followed its report by announcing on Monday that it's planning to raise a total of $95 billion in stock to support its AI investments. Alphabet's report concerned investors the most.

该公司的核心搜索业务连续第三个季度增长放缓,且未达到分析师预期,凸显出在ChatGPT、Claude及其他AI驱动的机器人和智能体崛起之际,该公司面临的挑战。YouTube相关广告收入也表现疲软。

The company's core search business saw a third straight quarter of slowing growth and missed analysts' projections, underscoring the challenges it faces with the rise of ChatGPT, Claude and other AI-powered bots and agents. YouTube-related advertising revenue also came in light.

周三,Evercore 分析师马克·马哈尼在接受 CNBC 节目 “Closing Bell Overtime” 采访时表示,尽管谷歌强劲的云收入对该公司来说是“好消息”,但其数字广告业务的放缓则代表了“压倒性的坏消息”。Forrester 分析师特蕾西·吴在一封电子邮件中表示,“Alphabet 在基础设施建设方面的巨额资本支出投资目前是可以容忍的”,但由于在线广告销售未达预期,该公司“正走在一条危险的道路上”。

Mark Mahaney, an analyst at Evercore, told CNBC's "Closing Bell Overtime" on Wednesday that while Google's strong cloud revenue was "good news" for the company, its decelerating digital advertising business represented "the overwhelming bad news." Forrester analyst Tracy Woo said in an email that "Alphabet's massive capex investment in infrastructure buildout has been tolerated for now," but the company "is walking a fine line," due to the online ad sales misses.

吴说:“搜索和 YouTube 的收入表现不及预期,这加剧了人们对人工智能取代公司最大收入来源的担忧。”“问题不在于当前的收益未达预期,而在于未来人工智能支出的增长速度可能超过支撑它的特许经营权的现金产生能力。”但并非所有人都感到担忧。看涨的投资者表示,这些科技巨头拥有悠久的运营历史,其传统业务足够强大,可以在可预见的未来支撑它们。

"Weakness in Search and YouTube revenue performance relative to expectations surfaces growing concern about AI displacement of the company's largest revenue generators," Woo said. "The issue is less the current earnings miss and more the possibility that future AI spending grows faster than the cash generation of the franchises expected to support it." But not everyone is concerned. Bullish investors say that the tech leaders have long histories of operations, and legacy businesses that are dominant enough to prop them up for the foreseeable future.

Check Capital Management 的董事总经理克里斯托弗·巴拉德指出,Alphabet 90 亿美元的负自由现金流与其整体业务相比微不足道。该公司当季的营业收入超过了 400 亿美元。

Christopher Ballard, a managing director at Check Capital Management, noted that Alphabet's negative free cash flow of $9 billion is tiny relative to the company's overall business. Its operating income topped $40 billion for the quarter.

巴拉德表示,与仍未盈利且每季度在基础设施上花费数十亿美元的人工智能模型公司 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 不同,Alphabet 拥有强劲的资产负债表。

Unlike AI model companies OpenAI and Anthropic, which are still unprofitable and spending billions of dollars a quarter on infrastructure, Alphabet has a strong balance sheet, Ballard said.

巴拉德说:“他们现在借钱是为了投资未来。”“我认为这是可以的,而且他们正在以负责任的方式进行。”尽管这些超大规模云服务提供商没有提供明年的具体资本支出预测,但它们都暗示,即使这意味着报告一些令人不适的指标,其数据中心支出热潮也将继续增长。

"They're borrowing from the for-now in order to invest in the future," Ballard said. "I think it's OK, and they're doing it in a responsible manner." Although the hyperscalers didn't provide specific capex projections for next year, they all implied their data center spending spree will continue to grow, even if it means reporting some uncomfortable metrics.

亚马逊首席执行官安迪·贾西在周四的财报电话会议上表示:“如果这类加速和机遇是在25年间发生的,你可以把资本支出分摊到25年,那会不会更方便?”“是的,那可能更方便,但这不是我们所处的世界,也不是我们所面对的机遇。”

"Would it be more convenient if this type of acceleration and opportunity happened over 25 years, and you can spread the capex over 25 years?" Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said on Thursday's earnings call. "Yeah, it might be more convenient, but that's not the world that we live in, and that's not the opportunity."

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