10月27日：华尔街预计亚马逊、微软和Alphabet将于周三报告其云业务实现更快增长，但动荡的市场抛售以及对AI融资成本上升的担忧正在抑制乐观情绪。
Oct 27 : Wall Street expects Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet to report on Wednesday faster growth in their cloud businesses, but a turbulent market selloff and concerns over rising costs of AI financing are tempering optimism.
投资者正在迫切寻找证据，证明AI繁荣能够带来迅速回报，以证明其巨大的价格标签合理。CoreWeave等AI云服务提供商的债券收益率上升，以及为Meta Platforms债务投保的成本创下纪录，加剧了人们对大规模AI基础设施建设资金来源的担忧，尤其是在美国利率走高的前景下。
Investors are pressing for evidence that the AI boom can deliver swift returns to justify its enormous price tag. Rising bond yields at AI cloud providers such as CoreWeave and record costs to insure Meta Platform's debt have amplified concerns about how the massive AI infrastructure buildout is being funded, particularly as higher US interest rates loom.
市场动荡重燃了投资者对AI泡沫的警告，包括对冲基金Citadel创始人肯·格里芬的警告，并迫使公司推迟IPO。预期民主党在美国中期选举中全面获胜，可能给数据中心带来更多麻烦，数据中心已因其对电网、电费和环境的影响而成为抗议目标。
Market turmoil has rekindled warnings of an AI bubble from investors, including hedge fund Citadel's founder Ken Griffin, and pushed companies to delay their IPOs. An expected Democratic sweep of the US midterm elections could spell more trouble for data centers that are already a target of protests over their impact on power grids, electricity bills and the environment.
大型科技公司本周的业绩将成为检验AI采用情况和经济可行性的试金石。这三家公司合计拥有近1.7万亿美元的积压订单，计划今年支出高达6000亿美元。
Big Tech's results this week will be a litmus test for AI adoption and economic viability. These three companies — with nearly $1.7 trillion in combined backlog — plan to spend as much as $600 billion this year.
Meta上周的业绩展示了这种算计变得多么无情。好于预期的营收增长和乐观的前景展望被增加的支出计划所掩盖，导致其股价次日下跌近7%。今年以来股价已下跌逾4%。
Meta's results last week showed just how unforgiving the calculus has become. Better-than-expected revenue growth and an upbeat outlook were overshadowed by increased spending plans, sending its shares down nearly 7 per cent the following day. They are now down more than 4 per cent this year.
“单单对资本支出的胃口就正在迅速降温，”Zacks Investment Management首席市场策略师布莱恩·马尔伯里表示。
"The appetite for capital expenditure alone is slowing rapidly," said Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management.
“对于亚马逊、谷歌和微软而言，其云业务的增长是一个非常重要的财务指标，将表明是否能在不进一步面临自由现金流收缩风险的情况下，为资本支出的进一步增长提供资金支持。”尽管这三家公司的股票今年以来表现优于依靠广告驱动的Meta，涨幅在1.2%至10.1%之间，但它们仍落后于标普500指数近12%的涨幅。
"For Amazon, Google and Microsoft specifically the growth in their cloud companies is a very important line item that will signal if further growth in capital expenditure can be funded without further risks of contracting free cash flow." While the trio's stocks have outperformed ad-driven Meta this year, with gains ranging from 1.2 per cent to 10.1 per cent, they continue to lag behind the S&P 500's near 12 per cent rise.
根据LSEG数据，谷歌云预计将在9月季度再次领跑三大云服务商，收入激增95.1%至295.7亿美元。这将快于上一季度81.8%的增速。
Google Cloud is expected to again lead the three major players in the September quarter, with revenue surging 95.1 per cent to $29.57 billion, according to LSEG data. That would be faster than the 81.8 per cent growth in the previous quarter.
作为云市场龙头的亚马逊云科技（AWS），预计收入增长38.2%，高于上一季度的36.8%。根据Visible Alpha数据，微软Azure预计将扩张47.7%，较三个月前的42%加速增长。
Amazon Web Services, the market leader in cloud, is expected to post 38.2 per cent revenue growth, up from 36.8 per cent in the previous quarter. Microsoft Azure is expected to expand 47.7 per cent, accelerating from 42 per cent three months earlier, according to Visible Alpha data.
Alphabet和亚马逊预计将分别连续第二个和第三个季度烧钱，而微软预计将产生超过80亿美元的现金流。
Alphabet and Amazon are expected to burn cash for the second and third consecutive quarters, respectively, while Microsoft will likely generate more than $8 billion in cash flow.
谷歌云业务成功，搜索业务引担忧 Alphabet的云业务和自研芯片已成为其AI推进中的一大亮点，但这发生在外界担忧谷歌模型落后于OpenAI和Anthropic之际。来自Meta的Muse等个人AI代理以及ChatGPT等聊天机器人的竞争，引发了对长期支撑其盈利的搜索业务的担忧。
GOOGLE CLOUD SUCCESS, SEARCH CONCERNS Alphabet's cloud business and in-house chips have emerged as a bright spot in its AI push amid concerns Google's models are falling behind those of OpenAI and Anthropic. But competition from personal AI agents such as Meta's Muse as well as chatbots such as ChatGPT has raised concerns about the search business that has long powered its earnings.
谷歌搜索收入增长预计将从上一季度的16.8%放缓至14.7%，即使总收入预计将以略快的25.2%增至1281.8亿美元。
Google search revenue growth is expected to slow to 14.7 per cent from 16.8 per cent in the previous quarter, even as total revenue is expected to rise at a slightly faster pace of 25.2 per cent to $128.18 billion.
“本季度，我们认为管理层评论与量化结果同等重要，因为随着AI代理的出现，搜索竞争再度加剧，同时市场对AI资本支出回报的担忧加剧，”Citizens分析师Andrew Boone表示。
"This quarter, we believe commentary is equally important to quantitative results as competition for search is growing again with agents while there is increased consternation around the payback of AI capital expenditure," Citizens analyst Andrew Boone said.
微软更改报告板块 微软将于周三首次按重组后的架构发布财报，将云计算、人工智能和商业软件合并为一个名为“智能体与基础设施”的部门，将 Windows、游戏和广告销售归入另一个名为“设备与消费者”的部门。
MICROSOFT CHANGES REPORTING SEGMENTS Microsoft will report under a revamped structure for the first time on Wednesday, combining cloud, AI and business software into a division called "Agents and Infra", and Windows, gaming and ad sales into another dubbed "Devices and Consumer".
一项显著变化是将披露 Azure 的季度营收，这解决了投资者因此前仅关注增速而未提供绝对数字而产生的不满。
A notable change will be the disclosure of Azure's quarterly revenue, resolving investor frustration over its previous focus on growth rates without absolute figures.
分析师预计，Azure 本季度销售额将达 330.6 亿美元，推动微软总营收增长 16.7% 至 906.6 亿美元，增速略低于上一时期。
Analysts expect Azure to post sales of $33.06 billion in the quarter, powering a 16.7 per cent rise in Microsoft's total revenue to $90.66 billion, slightly slower growth than the previous period.
亚马逊整体营收增速预计将从上一季度的 19.6% 放缓至 12.3%。
Amazon's overall revenue growth is expected to slow to 12.3 per cent from 19.6 per cent in the previous quarter.