全球三家最大、最重要的科技公司预计将在本周发布财报时展现出健康的增长。
Three of the biggest and most important technology companies in the world are expected to show healthy growth when they report earnings this week.
通常这会被视为稳定动荡股市的催化剂。但对华尔街而言，一切取决于两个数据点：它们在人工智能上投入了多少资金，以及何时能开始以有意义的方式获得回报。根据市场对 Meta Platforms Inc. 上周资本支出上升做出的剧烈反应来看，市场对任何令人失望的表现恐怕不会宽容。
Normally that would be considered a catalyst to stabilize the wobbly stock market. But for Wall Street, that all depends on two data points: How much money they’re spending on artificial intelligence and when it will start to pay off in a meaningful way. And based on the violent market reaction to Meta Platforms Inc.’s rising capital expenditures last week, the response to any disappointment likely won’t be forgiving.
Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理 John Belton 表示，投资者“现在对更高的资本支出绝对没有耐心”。“股市可以在墓地边吹口哨一段时间，但最终这将产生影响，或者至少造成一个更脆弱的市场。” 随着油价飙升，布伦特原油交易价格升至 4 月以来的最高水平，投资者焦虑情绪在进入本周时已处于高位。交易员也重新涌入相对安全的美国国债，推动 10 年期收益率时隔一个月再次跌破 5%。加上伊朗持续的战争以及下周关键的美国中期选举，宏观环境充满挑战。
Investors have “absolutely no patience right now for higher capex,” said John Belton, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds. “The stock market can whistle past the graveyard for some time, but eventually it’s going to have an impact or at least create a more fragile market.”Investor anxiety is already riding high heading into the week as oil prices soar, with Brent crude trading at its highest level since April. Traders have also piled back into the relative safety of US Treasuries, pushing the 10-year yield back below 5% for the first time in a month. Combined with the ongoing war in Iran and the pivotal US midterm elections next week, it’s a challenging macro set up.
面对这种局面，市值超过 10 万亿美元的科技巨头将陆续发布财报，其中包括 Alphabet Inc.、Microsoft Corp. 和 Amazon.com Inc. 等主要 AI 投入大户。预计这三家公司本季度收入均将实现两位数百分比增长。但投资者最感兴趣的是它们关于计划在 AI 上投入多少资金，以及这些投资在多大程度上已被证明具有盈利能力的表态。
In the face of that, tech giants valued at more than $10 trillion are scheduled to report earnings, including major AI spenders like Alphabet Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Amazon.com Inc. All three are expected to post double-digit percentage gains in revenue for the quarter. But investors will be most interested in their comments on how much they plan to spend on AI and the degree to which those investments are proving to be profitable.
“这是一个相当关键的财报季，”纽约梅隆银行财富管理公司高级股票分析师凯文·谢伊表示。“市场正在对大型股的增长打折扣，因为市场越来越不确定这种增长能否持续。”这种紧张情绪在Meta周三下午公布财报后的股票交易中表现得十分明显。由于财报显示出令人鼓舞的趋势，该股在盘后交易中飙升。但到周四上午开盘时，随着该公司计划将未来支出承诺提高1250亿美元至8250亿美元的消息开始被市场消化，市场情绪发生逆转。
“This is a pretty pivotal earnings season,” said Kevin Shea, senior equity analyst at BNY Wealth. “The market is discounting megacap growth because the market is becoming less certain that this growth is sustainable.”This skittishness was apparent in the trading of Meta shares after the company reported earnings on Wednesday afternoon. The stock surged in late trading as the results showed encouraging trends. But by the time the market opened on Thursday morning sentiment had reversed as the company’s plans to raise its future spending commitments by $125 billion to of $825 billion started to sink in.
该股周四收盘下跌6.1%，创7月以来最大单日跌幅；Meta五年期信用违约互换（CDS）价格也跃升至新高，因为巨额支出意味着该公司需要发行更多债券。
The stock closed Thursday down 6.1%, its worst day since July, and the price of Meta’s five-year credit default swaps jumped to a fresh high as the heavy spending meant it would need to sell more debt.
近几周，科技领域一系列担忧交织在一起，推动投资者对AI支出的情绪迅速转变。首先，云计算服务商科尔维夫公司的言论凸显了市场对AI基础设施建设在多大程度上依赖举债融资的担忧，尤其是在利率持续上行放大了形势恶化风险的情况下。市场研究公司高德纳估计，如果AI收入无法证明支出的合理性，到2030年，超过3.5万亿美元的AI基础设施支出可能面临减值风险。
Investor sentiment on AI spending has shifted swiftly in recent weeks, stoked by a confluence of fears across the tech sphere. First, comments from cloud-computing provider CoreWeave Inc. underscored concerns about the degree to which the buildout of AI infrastructure is being financed by debt, especially as an ongoing rise in interest rates amplifies the risk of things going south. Market research firm Gartner estimated that more than $3.5 trillion of AI infrastructure spending could be at risk of impairment by 2030 if AI revenue fails to justify the spending.
“我们现在正处于极端的避险模式，”阿金特资本管理公司投资组合经理杰德·埃勒布鲁克表示。“投资者正在逃离数据中心资本支出类股票，即那些科技和数据中心相关股票。”随后，预计将于下月上市的大型AI实验室安思罗皮克公益公司告诉潜在投资者，其第三季度营收同比增长约45%，增速低于第二季度，给整体叙事蒙上阴影。
“We are in an extreme flight to safety right now,” said Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management. “Investors are fleeing data center capex stocks, the technology and data center stuff.”Then, Anthropic PBC, the major AI lab that is expected to go public next month, told prospective investors that its third-quarter revenue rose about 45% from a year ago, a slower pace than in the second quarter, clouding the overall narrative.
“这是艰难宏观环境、AI收入增速放缓与AI资本支出出现拐点的艰难组合，”加贝利公司的贝尔顿表示。
“It’s a tough combination of tough macro, slowing AI revenue and inflecting AI capex,” Gabelli’s Belton said.
多年来，超大型科技股一直是推动市场上涨的主要力量，但这一局面在2026年发生了变化。彭博“华丽七雄”指数今年仅上涨6.5%，远低于标普500指数11%的涨幅以及以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数15%的涨幅。在该组合的七家成员中，只有苹果公司和英伟达公司的表现跑赢大盘。而剔除科技巨头的标普500指数版本在2026年已上涨12%。
Megacap tech stocks have been the primary force driving the market higher for years, but that’s changed in 2026. The Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Index is up just 6.5% this year, well below the 11% rise in the S&P 500 Index and the 15% rise in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index. Among the seven members of the group, only Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. are beating the market. And a version of the S&P 500 that excludes the tech giants has gained 12% in 2026.
投资者对人工智能支出似乎存在两种看法。人们普遍乐观地认为，人工智能长期而言将成为强大的市场驱动力。但与此同时，围绕数千亿美元支出是否以及何时体现在利润表上，仍存在持续争论。这一点尤其敏感，因为这一支出周期已使许多人工智能支出大户从现金创造机器转变为自由现金流为负的公司。
Investors seem to be of two minds about AI spending. There’s widespread optimism that AI will be a powerful market driver over time. But at the same time there’s an ongoing debate about if and when the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent will show up on the bottom line. This is particularly sensitive since the spending cycle has transformed many of the big AI spenders from cash-generation machines to companies with negative free cash flow.
纽约梅隆银行的希亚表示：“如果我们再次出现不得不下调自由现金流预期的情况，这将加剧人们对人工智能支出可持续性以及对外部增量资本依赖的担忧，而这种担忧也会传导至新型云服务商和市场其他部分。不过，如果我们能看到自由现金流预期被上修，市场将会松一口气，认为负面修正已经见底，我们已经度过了支出周期中最艰难的阶段。”
“If we get another scenario where we have to lower FCF expectations, that will elevate concerns about the durability of AI spending and the reliance on incremental capital, and that will flow down to the neoclouds and other parts of the market as well,” said BNY’s Shea. “However, if we can get positive revisions to FCF, the market will breathe a sigh of relief that we’ve reached the bottom for negative revisions and that we’re through the most difficult part of the spending cycle.”
当然，一些华尔街专业人士仍将超大型科技股视为市场中较确定的押注之一，尤其是它们今年的下跌已导致估值下降。“华丽七雄”指数目前的交易价格低于预期盈利的24倍，低于其约29倍的10年平均水平，也低于一年前的33倍。微软和Alphabet目前的估值均低于其长期平均水平，而亚马逊的市盈率低于20倍，接近2008年以来的最低水平。
Of course, some Wall Street pros still see megacap tech as one of the surer bets in the market, especially since their declines this year have resulted in lower valuations. The Magnificent Seven index is trading below 24 times estimated earnings, less than its 10-year average of roughly 29 and down from 33 a year ago. Microsoft and Alphabet are both trading at discounts to their long-term averages, while Amazon’s multiple is under 20, near its lowest since 2008.
这些较低的估值倍数伴随着相当稳健的增长前景。根据彭博智库数据，“美股七巨头”的盈利预计今年将增长约34%，高于标普500指数29%的增速。此外，华尔街对该集团长期前景的乐观情绪日益高涨。2027年利润预计增长27%，这一共识在最近几周大幅上调。两个月前，分析师预期的增幅还不到19%。
Those cheaper multiples come with a pretty robust growth outlook. The Magnificent Seven’s earnings are expected to climb about 34% this year, above the 29% pace of the S&P 500, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. Furthermore, Wall Street is becoming increasingly optimistic about the group’s longer-term prospects. Profits projected to rise 27% in 2027, a consensus that has moved up aggressively in recent weeks. Two months ago, analysts were anticipating an increase of less than 19%.
“门槛被设得更高了，所以当这些公司确实达标时，市场反而感到失望，”Pivotal Advisors首席执行官Tiffany McGhee在接受彭博电视台采访时表示。“他们希望看到的是本垒打级别的表现。”此外，还有一种预期认为，超大规模云服务商将继续推进大规模AI支出计划，无论这对投资者能否带来实质回报——这种情形让华尔街彻夜难眠。
“The bar is being set even higher, and so when these companies do meet expectations, it’s almost like the market is disappointed,” Tiffany McGhee, chief executive officer of Pivotal Advisors, told Bloomberg TV. “They want it knocked out of the park.”And then there’s the expectation that hyperscalers will forge ahead with heavy AI spending plans regardless of whether they show much in terms of payoff for investors — a scenario that’s keeping Wall Street up at night.
“新云基建的‘四骑士’目前似乎毫不悔意，”Bokeh Capital Partners首席投资官Kim Forrest表示。“他们将继续执行支出计划，这可能正让投资者感到不安。”
“The four horsemen of the neocloud build out seem unrepentant at this point,” said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners. “They’re going to go on with their spending plans, which may be making investors nervous.”