投资者正对人工智能基础设施支出感到不安，而大型科技公司却在加倍投入。
Investors are getting nervous about AI infrastructure spending just as the Big Tech companies double down.
过去两周，Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta 和微软纷纷公布计划，今年资本支出将超过 7400 亿美元，华尔街将其解读为人工智能基础设施支出，包括数据中心和芯片。
Over the past two weeks, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft have outlined plans to spend more than $740 billion on capital expenditures this year, which Wall Street is reading as AI infrastructure spending, including data centers and chips.
在人工智能热潮初期，投资者普遍对这种巨额支出给予奖励，视其为对该技术增长潜力充满信心的信号。但随着进入第四季度，这种热情似乎正让位于对负自由现金流（支出现金多于流入现金）、债务攀升，以及这些巨额投资能否最终产生足够回报的担忧。
Earlier in the AI boom, investors largely rewarded such big outlays, viewing them as a sign of confidence in the technology’s growth potential. But as we enter the fourth quarter, that enthusiasm seems to be giving way to concerns about negative free cash flow (spending more cash than a company brings in), mounting debt, and whether these enormous investments will ever generate enough returns.
这种焦虑周五蔓延至整个市场。纳斯达克指数下跌 2.9%，芯片股也遭重创：英伟达下跌 4%，博通跌超 5%，高通下跌 11%。Alphabet 周四暴跌 12%，创下有记录以来最糟糕单日表现，市值蒸发 5000 亿美元，周五继续下跌。
The anxiety spilled across the market on Friday. The Nasdaq fell 2.9%, and chip stocks took a drubbing, too: Nvidia dropped 4%, Broadcom more than 5%, and Qualcomm 11%. Alphabet, which plummeted 12% on Thursday, its worst day on record, wiping out $500 billion in market value, fell again.
担忧的很大一部分在于，曾因核心业务拥有充沛自由现金流的公司，正因人工智能威胁这些业务的经济模型而受到冲击。Alphabet 本周提供了最清晰的例证。谷歌母公司报告第三季度自由现金流为负 91 亿美元，连续第二个季度出现赤字，尽管季度资本支出增至 514 亿美元。Alphabet 预计今年支出高达 2050 亿美元，并预期该支出在 2027 年继续上升。
A big part of the concern is that companies that used to have overflowing free cash flow from their core businesses are getting hit as AI threatens the economics of those businesses. Alphabet provided the clearest example of that this week. Google’s parent company reported negative free cash flow of $9.1 billion in in the third quarter, its second consecutive quarter in the red, even as quarterly capex grew to $51.4 billion. Alphabet expects to spend up to $205 billion this year, and expects that spending to keep rising in 2027.
与此同时，AI 模式的巨大成功——谷歌直接内嵌在搜索中的 AI 驱动聊天机器人功能——正在侵蚀公司的摇钱树。谷歌的搜索广告业务约占其营收的一半，增速放缓至 12%，为五个季度以来最弱增速。这让谷歌如履薄冰：它正在向可能动摇支撑其营收的搜索业务的 AI 技术投入数十亿美元。
Meanwhile, the wild success of AI Mode — Google’s AI-powered chatbot feature built directly into Search — is eating into the company’s money-maker. Google’s Search advertising business, which makes up roughly half of its revenue, saw growth slow to 12%, its weakest pace in five quarters. That leaves Google walking a tightrope. It’s spending billions on the AI technology that could undermine the search business that pays it.
亚马逊处境相似，过去 12 个月自由现金流为负 424 亿美元，而前一年为正 148 亿美元。公司表示预计今年资本支出将达 2200 亿美元。尽管其云业务 AWS 营收增长 39%，但亚马逊股价在周四发布财报后暴跌 7%。
Amazon is in a similar boat after reporting negative free cash flow of $42.4 billion over the past 12 months, compared with $14.8 billion in positive free cash flow the year before. The company says it expects to spend $220 billion in capex this year. Even though revenue at its cloud business, AWS, revenue grew 39%, Amazon’s stock tumbled 7% after it reported earnings Thursday.
Meta 同样在烧钱，第三季度自由现金流为负 21 亿美元，因资本支出超过了经营现金流。公司预计今年资本支出高达 1450 亿美元。公司指出，其新推出的免费个人 AI 代理 Muse 有点像“吞金兽”（首席执行官马克·扎克伯格曾表示它“运算量极大，运行成本很高”）。但广告营收增长了 26%。尽管如此，再多的利好消息也没能阻止 Meta 股价上周重挫 10%。
Meta s also burning cash, reporting negative free cash flow of $2.1 billion in the third quarter as capex outpaced its operating cash. It’s guiding to as much as $145 billion in capex this year. The company noted that Muse, its new free personal AI agent, is a bit of a money pit (it’s “very compute-intensive to run,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg has said). But ad revenue grew 26%. Still, no amount of good news saved Meta from taking a 10% hit on its stock last week.
微软是自由现金流方面的唯一例外——最新季度录得 186 亿美元正自由现金流，资本支出为 452 亿美元，低于预期的 500 亿美元。微软表示这并非有意削减 AI 支出，而是归咎于第三方供应商产能交付延迟。结果，出租 AI 算力的小型公司股价下跌。
Microsoft was the only exception when it came to free cash flow — it recorded $18.6 billion in positive free cash flow in its latest quarter, with spending on capex at $45.2 billion, less than the $50 billion it projected. Microsoft said that wasn’t an intentional pullback from AI spending, blaming delays in capacity from third-party providers. As a result, shares of smaller companies that rent out AI computing power sank.
值得注意的是，支付所有这些 AI 基础设施费用的资金不仅来自大型科技公司的利润，也体现在股票和债券发行中。据标普全球市场情报数据，微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta 和甲骨文在 2026 年合计发行了 3260 亿美元债券，是去年发行额的三倍。
It’s worth noting that the money to pay for all of this AI infrastructure isn’t just coming from the Big Tech companies’ profits. It’s also showing up in stock and bond sales. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle raised a combined $326 billion in debt in 2026, triple the amount raised last year.
对 AI 算力的需求依然强劲。谷歌、亚马逊和微软的云业务均实现增长。但投资者对满足这一需求所需的成本感到担忧。
Demand for AI compute remains strong. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft all saw gains in their cloud businesses. But investors are getting spooked by the costs of meeting that demand.
这种扑朔迷离的局面可能会使 Anthropic 备受瞩目的首次公开募股（IPO）变得更加复杂。这家 AI 公司本周早些时候提交了上市申请，其未来增长取决于能否获得海量算力。《金融时报》周五报道，贝莱德已警告投资者，该公司 IPO 后可能不符合投资级评级资格，这意味着它可能最终更依赖超大规模云服务商和第三方为其基础设施雄心提供资金。
These muddied waters could complicate Anthropic’s highly anticipated IPO. The AI company filed to go public earlier this week, and its future growth depends on securing enormous amounts of compute. The Financial Times reported Friday that Blackstone has warned investors the company might not qualify for an investment-grade rating after its IPO, meaning it might end up being more reliant on the hyperscalers and third-parties to fund its infrastructure ambitions.