圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长阿尔贝托·穆萨莱姆周五表示，近期需要实施更紧缩的货币政策。
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem said Friday that firmer monetary policy will need to be implemented in the near future.
穆萨莱姆在为影子公开市场委员会准备的讲话稿中表示：“我判断，进一步收紧货币政策将是必要的，而且很快就会到来。”该委员会是一个专注于央行的经济学家聚会。
"I judge that additional firming of monetary policy will be necessary, and soon," Musalem said in prepared remarks for the Shadow Open Market Committee, a gathering of economists focused on the central bank.
穆萨莱姆的言论首次透露了美联储领导层在周三决定维持利率不变之后对下一步行动的些许看法。这也将强化投资者的一种观点，即美联储将在12月的下次会议上恢复加息。根据芝商所的FedWatch工具，联邦基金期货交易员目前预计美联储在12月会议上加息25个基点的可能性约为76%。
Musalem's comments offer the first morsels of insight into what leaders at the Fed see next following Wednesday's decision to hold interest rates steady. It will also bolster the view among investors that the Fed will return to hiking rates at its next meeting in December. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a roughly 76% likelihood of the Fed lifting rates by a quarter percentage point at that gathering, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
穆萨莱姆说：“早先进行的渐进调整通常比日后采取更大规模、更突然的行动干扰性更小。在通胀预期锚定的情况下，以较小幅度更早行动，在不给劳动力市场或经济增长带来不利影响的情况下，成功的可能性更大。”穆萨莱姆对美国经济状况总体上给予了，称其“具有韧性”。他提到了周四公布的美国GDP数据，该数据显示增长率为3.4%，强于预期。
"Incremental adjustments made earlier are usually less disruptive than larger and abrupt actions taken later," Musalem said. "Moving sooner in smaller steps while inflation expectations are anchored has a better chance of succeeding without adverse impact on the labor market or economic growth." Musalem broadly spoke positively about the state of the U.S. economy, which he described as "resilient." He pointed to Thursday's data on U.S. GDP, which showed a stronger-than-expected growth rate of 3.4%.
他表示，有几个因素在提振经济，包括人工智能建设以及“仍具宽松性”的金融环境。穆萨莱姆说，劳动力市场一直“非常稳定和平衡”。他指出，4.2%的失业率处于联邦公开市场委员会参与者长期预测的中位数水平。该委员会负责制定利率。穆萨莱姆今年不是联邦公开市场委员会的投票成员，预计要到2028年才会有投票权。
He said there are several factors boosting the economy, including the artificial-intelligence buildout and financial conditions that "remain accommodative." Musalem said the labor market has been "remarkably stable and balanced." The unemployment rate of 4.2% sits at the median of long-run projections by participants in the Federal Open Market Committee, the group tasked with setting interest rates, he noted. Musalem is not a voting member of the FOMC this year, and isn't expected to have a vote until 2028.
但穆萨莱姆警告称，通胀“过高”，并援引周四公布的个人消费支出价格指数，该指数显示年通胀率超过3%。美联储官员一直在密切关注消费者和投资者的通胀预期，以确保其不会过高偏离央行2%的长期目标。
But Musalem warned that inflation is "too high," citing the personal consumption expenditures price index released Thursday that showed annual inflation above 3%. Fed officials have been closely monitoring inflation expectations among consumers and investors to ensure they don't get too far above the central bank's long-term target of 2%.
他表示，存在一种可能的情形：除非美联储调整货币政策，否则未来通胀将持续高于2%。
He said there's a likely scenario where inflation remains above 2% into the future unless the Fed adjusts monetary policy.
穆萨莱姆说：“货币政策目前能为就业和经济增长做的最好的事情，就是及时恢复物价稳定。”“当央行在通胀根深蒂固并预期将持续之前采取行动时，降低通胀的短期经济成本会更小。”
"The best that monetary policy can do now for employment and economic growth is to restore price stability in a timely manner," Musalem said. "The short-run economic costs of reducing inflation are less when the central bank acts before inflation has become entrenched and is expected to persist."