距离选举日仅剩数天，围绕选举结果的争夺战已经打响。在阿拉斯加，司法部正起诉要求阻止参议院竞选结果认证，前提是共和党候选人以微弱劣势落败。在加利福尼亚，联邦检察官发出传票，强制选举官员就选民名册上涉嫌存在的非公民作证。在北德克萨斯的一个县，当地共和党组织正起诉要求阻止选举结果认证，除非该州每一张选票都经人工清点。这很可能只是开始。
Days before Election Day, the fight over the results is already underway. In Alaska, the Justice Department is suing to block certification of the Senate race if the Republican candidate loses narrowly. In California, federal prosecutors issued subpoenas to force election officials to testify about alleged noncitizens on their voter rolls. In a North Texas county, the local GOP party is suing to block certification of election results unless every ballot in the state is counted by hand. That is likely just the beginning.
接近白宫的共和党人、民主党律师和资深民主党国会助手向“MS NOW”表示，他们预计特朗普政府及其盟友将在周二之后，在关键县份和州份对结果提出异议，并试图阻止认证。
Republicans close to the White House, Democratic lawyers and senior Democratic congressional aides told MS NOW they expect the Trump administration and its allies to contest results and try to block certification in key counties and states after Tuesday.
一些共和党人，包括部分共和党议员，已提出一个最后手段：如果上述做法失败，则拒绝让获胜的民主党人就职。
Some Republicans, including some GOP lawmakers, have floated a last resort if that fails: refuse to seat Democrats who win.
特朗普总统几乎每个选举周期都在打这场仗的某种版本，已为其基本盘做好准备。不同之处在于，这一次他拥有联邦政府的全力支持，忠诚者占据关键职位——包括他前私人律师，现任司法部部长。
President Trump, who wages some version of this fight nearly every election cycle, has primed his base for it. The difference this time is that he has the full force of the federal government behind him, with loyalists in key posts — including his former personal lawyer, who now leads the Justice Department.
“民主党人‘擅长作弊’，”特朗普总统在爱荷华州最近的一次竞选集会上说——这是一个他在几乎每场集会上重复的虚假指控。“他们作弊作得要命。要是不作弊，他们永远赢不了。”两名接近白宫的人士，包括一名前特朗普政府官员，告诉“MS NOW”，司法部肯定会在加州和阿拉斯加的现有诉讼之外，在其他州提起更多挑战结果的诉讼。其中一人表示，预计共和党将在密歇根等州对结果提出异议，民主党参议院候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德已成为特朗普种族主义和伊斯兰恐惧症攻击的目标。
Democrats are “great at cheating,” President Trump said at a recent campaign stop in Iowa — a false claim he repeats at nearly every rally. “They cheat like hell. And if they didn’t cheat, they could never win.”Two people close to the White House, including a former Trump administration official, told MS NOW that the Justice Department is certain to file more lawsuits challenging results in other states, on top of its pending suits in California and Alaska. One of them said to expect Republicans to contest the outcome in states such as Michigan, where Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed has become a target of Trump’s racist and Islamophobic attacks.
“乔治亚州最终将成为焦点；密歇根州一直如此，特别是如果埃尔-赛义德以不到1%的优势获胜，而韦恩县是我们最后拿到结果的县，”一位接近白宫的人士说，该人士获准匿名描述策略。“无论是否存在舞弊。”
“Georgia will ultimately be in the crosshairs; Michigan always, especially if El-Sayed wins by less than 1%, and Wayne County is the last county that we get in,” said one of the people close to the White House, granted anonymity to describe the strategy. “Whether there’s fraud or not.”
但同一人士承认预期这些挑战会失败。“我们可以斗志昂扬，可以有优秀的律师，但法官讨厌这类案件，而且几乎总是不了了之，”该人士说。“我们在法庭上赢不了。”尽管如此，接受MS NOW采访的两党几乎所有人都表示，他们正在为主要战场转移到各州、发生在计票和认证阶段做准备。所有选票计完后，地方和州官员会审查并认证结果。随后，他们将记录谁获胜的官方文件——即当选证书——送交众议院和参议院。
But the same person acknowledged expecting the challenges to fail. “We can be fired up, we can have great lawyers, but judges hate these cases, and they almost always go nowhere,” they said. “We’re not gonna win in a courtroom.”Still, nearly everyone in both parties who spoke to MS NOW said they are bracing for the main battle to unfold in the states, during the vote count and certification. Once all the votes are counted, local and state officials review and certify the results. They then send the official record of who won, known as certificates of election, to the House and Senate.
“我们正在为各种认证之争做准备，归根结底这些不是联邦层面的斗争，”一位资深民主党助手说，该助手获准匿名讨论内部推演。“这些是在县法院和州最高法院的斗争，而不是在国会大厅里。”司法部和共和党律师事务所预计将在当选证书送达国会之前发起挑战。如果这些挑战失败，特朗普的一些盟友已经盯上了下一阶段：1月，新一届国会宣誓就职时。特朗普持续不断的选举舞弊虚假信息，包括关于非公民大规模投票的虚假叙事，再次给了他们壮胆。
“We’re preparing for all manner of certification fights, which are not at the end of the day federal fights,” said a senior Democratic aide, granted anonymity to discuss internal war-gaming. “These are fights in county courthouses and state supreme courts, not in the halls of Congress.”The Justice Department and Republican law firms are expected to mount their challenges before the winners’ certificates ever reach Congress. If those challenges fail, some of Trump’s allies are already eyeing the next stage: January, when the new Congress is sworn in. Trump’s steady drumbeat of election-fraud disinformation, including the false narrative of widespread voting by noncitizens, has once again emboldened them.
小布什总统时期的白宫新闻秘书阿里·弗莱舍建议，参议院可以拒绝让玛丽·佩尔托拉就职，即使阿拉斯加州已发出她胜选的证书。佩尔托拉是阿拉斯加的民主党参议员候选人。
Ari Fleischer, who was White House press secretary under President George W. Bush, suggested the Senate could refuse to seat Mary Peltola, the Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, even if the state were to transmit the certificate of her victory. “I don’t know if the Senate is going to seat her,” Fleischer said.
“参议院是否会让她就职，我不知道，”弗莱彻说。“国会决定——对谁是国会议员拥有最终决定权。”
“The Congress decides — has the ultimate say in who the members of Congress are.”Trump himself hasn’t ruled it out.
特朗普本人也没有排除这种可能。当被问及共和党是否应该拒绝让佩尔托拉就职时，他说：“嗯，你们得看看会发生什么。”根据参议院规则，落选候选人或现任参议员可以对参议院选举结果提出质疑。但在任期延续至1月3日之后的67名参议员中，民主党占据一席优势：34人与民主党结盟，33人与共和党结盟。
Asked whether Republicans should refuse to seat Peltola, he said, “well, you’re going to have to see what happens.”Under Senate rules, a losing candidate or a sitting senator can challenge the results of a Senate race. But among the 67 senators whose terms continue past Jan. 3, Democrats hold a one-seat edge: 34 caucus with Democrats and 33 with Republicans. One of the two people close to the White House said that some members of the party are considering objecting to seating Peltola and El-Sayed if they win.
一位接近白宫的知情人士表示，如果佩尔托拉和埃尔-赛义德获胜，党内一些成员正考虑反对让他们就职。该人士称，在埃尔-赛义德的案例中，一些共和党参议员将引用一些说法——这些说法已被揭穿——质疑这位密歇根州出生者的公民身份，并指控他——同样是虚假指控——与恐怖组织有联系。
In El-Sayed’s case, the person said, some GOP senators would cite claims — which have been debunked — about the Michigan native’s citizenship and accusations — equally false — that he has ties to terrorist groups. Such objections around fabricated ties to terrorist groups is “not a valid objection,” said a senior Senate Democratic aide.
一位资深参议院民主党助手表示，围绕捏造的恐怖组织联系提出异议“并非有效异议”。“这不符合宪法。”1969年，美国最高法院确实就美国众议院试图以道德理由而非基于得票数或认证结果拒绝让一名当选议员就职一事作出了裁决。法院以7比1的表决结果裁定，众议院和参议院在确定某人“资格”以履职并宣誓就职时，只能考虑该当选议员的年龄、公民身份和适当的州居住情况。
“That is not constitutional.”In 1969, the U.S. Supreme Court – in did weigh in on an effort by the U.S. House to not seat a member-elect on ethical grounds, not based on vote count or certification. The court ruled in a 7 to 1 decision that the House and Senate may only consider a member-elect’s age, citizenship and appropriate state residency when determining the “qualifications” of that individual to serve and take the oath of office. The aide said the Senate has a “rare but normal process” for objecting to the seating of a newly elected senator.
助理表示，参议院对新当选参议员的就职拥有“一种罕见但正常的程序”。但助理称，若出现恶意的异议，将触发一种“相互确保毁灭”的动态，即“每个人都可以开始对每个人的证书提出异议”。宪法学和国会程序专家表示，利用一月就职程序推翻中期选举选民的裁决没有任何途径。要实现这一点，需要两党共同支持或有多数人联合支持此举。
But bad-faith objections, the aide said, would set off a “mutually assured destruction” dynamic in which “everybody can start objecting to everybody’s certificate.”Experts in constitutional law and congressional procedure say there is no path to using the January seating process to overturn the voters’ verdict in the midterms. That would take support from both parties or a majority united behind the effort. Under federal law, states send their certificates of election to the vice president.
根据联邦法律，各州将选举证书送交副总统。副总统在1月3日中午参议院召集时提交这些证书，届时在任参议员的任期届满。有人提出，副总统JD·范斯可能利用其作为参议院议长的职务，试图阻止新当选参议员就职。大多数选举法学者和接受《MS NOW》采访的民主党国会助理表示，此类前所未有的举动将远远超出法律界限，他们并不预期会发生。
He presents them to the Senate when it convenes at noon on Jan. 3, the moment outgoing senators’ terms expire. Some have floated the idea that Vice President JD Vance could use his role as the Senate’s presiding officer to try to block a newly elected senator from being seated. Most of the election law scholars and Democratic congressional aides who spoke to MS NOW said such an unprecedented move would be so far beyond the bounds of the law that they don’t expect it to happen. Nothing in the Constitution, federal law or Senate rules expressly gives the vice president the power to reject certificates sent by the states, the experts said.
专家们指出，宪法、联邦法律或参议院规则中均未明确赋予副总统拒绝各州提交的证书的权力。
“The Senate as a whole is the judge of the returns of its members under the Constitution,” said Bob Bauer, a longtime legal adviser to the Democratic Party who is also involved in bipartisan election-protection programs this cycle.
“根据宪法，参议院整体是其成员选举结果的审判者，”长期担任民主党法律顾问、并参与本届两党选举保护计划的鲍勃·鲍尔说。“美国副总统不能单方面削弱参议院确定该成员已正式提交宣誓并就座的权威。”“我并不认为参议院倾向于推翻共和国，”洛约拉马利蒙特大学选举法专家贾斯汀·莱维特说。
“The Vice President of the United States cannot undermine, single-handedly, the authority of the Senate to determine that that member is properly presented to take the oath and take her seat.”“I don’t take as a granted that the Senate is inclined to overthrow the republic,” said Justin Levitt, an election law expert at Loyola Marymount University. Still, the senior Democratic aides and lawyers responsible for war-gaming every scenario are prepared for it.
尽管如此，负责推演各种情景的资深民主党助手和律师们已为此做好准鲍尔表示，针对联邦层面干预的防范准备工作“在本周期启动得早得多”，且“比以往任何时候都更为广泛”。在众议院，这种模糊空间甚至更小。
Bauer said the preparation to protect against federal interference “has happened far earlier” this cycle and is “more extensive than ever before.”There is even less ambiguity in the House.
民主党律师们也在为一个他们预计不会发生的情景做准备。在这个情景中，众议院议长迈克·约翰逊解雇众议院秘书长，并安插一名忠诚者，后者可能会拖延或拒绝让新当选议员就座。州选举官员提出过这种可能性，保守派前联邦上诉法院法官J·迈克尔·卢蒂格也提出过。约翰逊最近在接受MS NOW采访时表示，“当然”会遵守法律，这是他在被问及议员就座问题时的回答。
Democratic lawyers are also preparing for a scenario they don’t expect to happen. In it, House Speaker Mike Johnson fires the House clerk and installs a loyalist who could slow or deny the seating of newly elected members. State election officials have raised that possibility, as has J. Michael Luttig, a conservative former federal appeals court judge. Johnson recently told MS NOW that “of course” he’ll follow the law when asked about the seating of members.
“我们将在1月3日主持宣誓仪式……这是一个相当简单的程序，”约翰逊说。即使约翰逊解雇了秘书长，众议院也有权推翻议长的决定。
“We’re going to administer the ceremony on January 3 where one takes the oath…it’s a pretty simple process,” Johnson said. Even if Johnson were to fire the clerk, the House has the authority to overrule the speaker.
根据宪法，所有在任众议员的任期于1月3日届满。随后由秘书长主持新一届众议院会议，直至选出议长。秘书长的首项任务是点读已提交当选证书的当选议员名单。
Under the Constitution, the terms of every sitting House member expire on Jan. 3. The clerk then presides over the new House until a speaker is elected. The clerk’s first task is calling the roll of members-elect whose states have submitted certificates of election.
莱维特说：“一旦这在1月3日中午发生，就不存在迈克·议长了——只有迈克·约翰逊，推定的当选议员。仅此而已。” “各州发给的当选证书持有者，由秘书长列入名单。”与参议院不同，众议院在有争议的选举上受一项明确的联邦法律管辖。根据1969年《联邦有争议选举法》，败选候选人可在州政府认证结果后30天内，向众议院行政委员会提出争议。
“As soon as that happens at noon on January 3, there is no Mike Johnson — there’s just Mike Johnson, presumably member-elect. Period,” Levitt said. “The people who receive certificates in the states are put on the roll by the clerk.”And unlike the Senate, the House is governed by a clear federal law on contested races. Under the Federal Contested Elections Act of 1969, a losing candidate has 30 days after the state certifies the result to contest it before the Committee on House Administration.
根据该法规定的时间表，审查可能耗时数月，但议长可让经认证的胜选者先行宣誓就职，在审查期间履职。仅有两次议长选择不在审查过程中暂时让此类当选议员就座。
Under the law’s timelines, the review can take months, but the speaker may swear in the certified winner to serve while it plays out. Only twice has a speaker opted to not temporarily seat such a member-elect during the review process.
白宫拒绝说明是否有人与万斯或国会共和党人讨论过反对新当选民主党人就职一事。相反，它指向了总统近期的言论，这些言论毫无根据地质疑美国选举的安全性和准确性。
The White House declined to say whether anyone there has discussed objecting to the seating of newly elected Democrats with Vance or with congressional Republicans. Instead, it pointed to the president’s recent comments baselessly casting doubt on the security and accuracy of American elections.
但共和党人追随特朗普关于选举被操纵的虚假说法的意愿似乎正在减弱，因为他们判断总统如今比以往任何时候都更不受欢迎。“他将孤立无援，”一名前特朗普政府官员说。
But Republicans’ willingness to follow Trump’s lead on false claims of a rigged election appears to be faltering, as they calculate that the president is more unpopular than ever. “He will be on an island all by himself,” said a former Trump administration official.
这名前官员说，目前没有“玩特朗普的游戏”、阻止参议院和众议院议员就职的意愿。“没有人会说让他像2021年那样发泄，他们会把门关上。”
There is no appetite “to play Trump’s game” and block the seating of members in the Senate and House, the former official said. “Nobody is going to say let him vent the way they did in 2021, they will slam the door.”