
距离选举日不到一周,特朗普政府正加大力度试图影响选举结果,引发外界担忧:中期选举可能面临联邦当局前所未有的干预。
With less than a week until Election Day, the Trump administration is ramping up efforts to shape the outcomes, prompting concerns that the midterm elections could face unprecedented interference by federal authorities.
近日,特朗普政府官员提起诉讼,可能阻止阿拉斯加州一场参议院选举的认证;威胁加州选举官员可能面临牢狱之灾;并暗示如果共和党人未能获胜,明尼苏达州一场参议院选举的结果就不可信。特朗普的盟友还一直在敦促总统可能采取极端措施,包括宣布戒严以夺取选票。
In recent days, Trump officials have sued to potentially block the certification of a Senate race in Alaska, threatened election officials in California with jail time, and implied that the outcome in a Senate race in Minnesota couldn’t be trusted if the Republican didn’t win. Trump’s allies have also been urging the President to potentially take drastic measures, including declaring martial law to seize ballots.
数十个州的选举官员正在为周二可能出现的各种干预做准备——当天将有数百万选民投票——同时也在为随后的日子做准备,届时选票将被清点,最后几批邮寄选票将送达,选举结果将被认证。
Election officials in dozens of states are preparing for a wide range of possible interference on Tuesday when millions of voters will cast ballots, as well as in the days that follow as the votes are counted, the final batches of mail-in ballots come in and the election outcomes are certified.
如此多的挑战前景促使投票权组织、选举官员和律师团队加紧努力,随时准备应对全国任何地方的选举干预。
The prospect of so many challenges has led to intense efforts by voting rights groups, election officials and teams of lawyers to be ready to respond to election meddling anywhere in the country.
以下是特朗普政府可能在选举过程的每个环节进行干预的方式——以及州和地方官员以及各类外部团体如何为每种情况做准备:投票站开放供现场投票 选举工作人员正在为周二投票站内外可能出现的联邦干预做准备。
Here’s how the Trump Administration could potentially interfere in each step of the election process—and how state and local officials, and various outside groups, are preparing for each scenario:
过去几个月,当被问及特朗普政府是否会尝试向投票站部署联邦探员时,政府官员给出了含糊其辞的回答。联邦法律明确禁止军方或联邦官员在选举场所驻扎军队或武装人员,以试图干预联邦选举。参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩上将8月底向一位民主党参议员保证,军方“没有计划”在中期选举期间向投票站部署人员。然而,特朗普拒绝排除在选举日宣布联邦紧急状态或向投票站派遣移民及海关执法局(ICE)探员等措施的可能性,他在9月接受《时代》周刊采访时表示,现阶段他“不排除任何选项”。
Polls open for in-person voting Election workers are preparing for possible federal interference both inside and outside polling places on Tuesday.
至少已提起三起诉讼,以预先阻止ICE探员在选举日被部署到投票站。根据其中一起诉讼,科罗拉多州至少有一个县治安官办公室已与ICE合作,并于今年进行了“在投票站核查逮捕令”的行动。
Over the past few months, officials from the Trump Administration have given vague answers when asked if the Administration might try to deploy federal agents to the polls. Federal laws explicitly prohibit military or federal officials from stationing troops or armed men where elections are held in an attempt to interfere with a federal election. Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine assured a Democratic senator in late August that the military had “no plan” to be deployed to polling locations during the midterm elections. Yet Trump has declined to rule out measures such as declaring a federal emergency on Election Day or sending ICE agents to the polls, telling TIME in an interview in September that he didn’t “rule anything out” at this point.
除了ICE探员进行移民执法的可能性之外,选举官员还对联邦政府可能以选民欺诈指控为前提、尝试其他方式扰乱投票站表示担忧。数月来,政府一直与数十个州就非公民出现在选民名册上的指控陷入法律纠纷。选举专家表示,选民欺诈极为罕见。
At least three lawsuits have been filed to preemptively block ICE agents from being deployed to polling sites on Election Day. According to one of the lawsuits, at least one county sheriffs’ office in Colorado has already been cooperating with ICE and conducted “warrant checks at polling locations” this year.
在一些地方社区,有迹象表明联邦探员出现在投票地点可能会在投票站引发混乱。弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿县在针对投票站联邦探员的预防性法律申请中表示,该县已就“是否以及如何实施逮捕,以及可能需要的任何起诉应对或民事诉讼行动”制定了计划。申请中还写道:“阿灵顿此前从未需要为这些威胁情景做准备。”阿灵顿县政府在回应置评请求时表示,当地警察部门与选举官员保持联系,并准备对任何报告的事件作出响应。
Along with the prospect of ICE agents conducting immigration enforcement, election officials have also expressed concern that the federal government might try other ways to disrupt polling places, citing voter fraud allegations as a premise. For months, the Administration has been involved in a legal fight with dozens of states over allegations that noncitizens are on their voter rolls. Election experts say voter fraud is incredibly rare.
投票结束,计票开始。随着投票站于周二晚间关闭,地方选举官员和投票权组织正在为联邦官员可能扣押选举材料和投票机的可能性做准备。今年1月,联邦调查局突袭了佐治亚州富尔顿县选举办公室,扣押了与2020年大选有关的选举材料。5月,一名联邦法官裁定联邦政府可以继续保留这些选票。联邦调查局尚未宣布该调查中发现任何不当行为。
In some local communities, there are indications that federal agents showing up at polling locations could sow chaos at the polls. Virginia’s Arlington County stated in its preemptive legal filing against federal agents at the polls that the county had developed plans regarding “whether and how to make arrests, and any prosecutorial response or civil legal actions that might be necessary.”“Arlington has never before needed to prepare for these threat scenarios,” the filing adds. When reached for a statement, the Arlington County government says the local police department remains in contact with election officials and is prepared to respond to any reported incidents.
“富尔顿县的教训是,你必须准备好 literally 在几分钟内出庭,”民主捍卫者行动执行主任诺姆·艾森对《时代》周刊表示。艾森一直与投票权组织以及多个州的地方和州选举官员密切合作,为下周选举中可能出现的任何联邦干预做准备。这包括准备好一旦任何联邦官员试图扣押任何选票或投票机就立即提起诉讼。
Polls close and ballot counting begins As polling stations close Tuesday evening, local election officials and voting rights groups are bracing for the prospect of federal officials possibly seizing election materials and voting machines. In January, the FBI raided the Fulton County election office in Georgia and seized election materials in connection with the 2020 election. In May, a federal judge ruled that the federal government could continue to retain the ballots. The FBI has not announced any wrongdoing stemming from the investigation.
其他法律学者也敦促法官考虑替代方案,以防联邦当局试图保留选举材料。加州大学洛杉矶分校法学教授、保障民主项目主任里克·哈森发表了一份白皮书,敦促可能看到选票扣押搜查令申请的法官考虑下令复制选票,以便选举认证程序得以继续。
“The lesson of Fulton County was that you have to be ready to be in court literally in minutes,” Norm Eisen, the executive director of Democracy Defenders Action, tells TIME. Eisen has been working closely with voting rights groups as well as local and state election officials in multiple states to prepare for any federal interference in next week’s elections. That includes being ready to immediately file lawsuits as soon as any federal officials try to seize any ballots or voting machines.
等待最后一批邮寄选票 许多邮寄选票要在选举日之后数天才能送达。其中一些来自驻海外的军人。关于谁可以接收邮寄选票、哪些邮寄选票应被计入的争论,在特朗普第二个任期的大部分时间里一直在进行。
Other legal scholars are also encouraging judges to consider alternative solutions if federal authorities seek to retain election materials. Rick Hasen, a law professor and director of UCLA’s Safeguarding Democracy Project, published a white paper urging judges who might see warrant applications for ballot seizure to consider ordering copies of the ballot to allow the election certification process to continue.
三月,特朗普总统签署了一项行政令,要求各州与美国邮政服务局合作,建立经过核实的选民名单,并要求美国邮政服务局不向名单上没有的人寄送邮寄选票。该行政令很快遭到大量诉讼,法院作出初步禁令,阻止美国邮政服务局为回应特朗普的命令而执行任何新规则。
Waiting for the last batches of mail-in ballots Many mail-in votes won’t arrive until days after Election Day. Some will be from members of the military stationed overseas. The fight over who can receive mail-in ballots, and which mail-in ballots should be counted, has been underway for most of Trump’s second term.
但选举官员仍在为可能出现的情况做准备:一些联邦官员可能试图阻碍邮寄选票的计票。周一,司法部要求华盛顿州不要计算超过400名选民的选票,司法部怀疑这些选民不是美国公民,而此时已有超过100万张选票投出。
In March, President Trump signed an executive order requiring states to work with the United States Postal Services to establish lists of verified voters and asking USPS to withhold mail ballots from anyone not on the lists. The executive order was quickly met with a flurry of lawsuits, which resulted in a preliminary injunction blocking the USPS from enforcing any new rules in response to Trump’s order.
即使联邦层面的努力已搁置,州政府仍在推进新规则,这些规则已经推高了选票被拒率。在北卡罗来纳州,州选举委员会实施了一项新规则,要求选民使用至少三个不同的信封来寄送选票和身份证复印件。如果三个信封中有任何一个未密封,选票将被拒绝。据当地媒体报道,与上一届选举周期相比,该州全州选票被拒率已从2.6%上升至3.1%。
But election officials are still preparing for the possibility that some federal officials may try to get in the way of mail-in ballots being counted. On Monday, the DOJ asked the state of Washington to not count ballots from more than 400 voters whom it suspects to be noncitizens, as more than 1 million ballots have already been cast.
认证选举结果 所有选票统计完毕后,县级官员将开始认证选举结果。尽管各州对县级官员提出的质疑的提出和解决有各自的规则,但认证选举结果是一项强制性职责。根据竞选法律中心的说法,如果官员拖延或拒绝认证结果,州级官员和法院可以介入,强制进行认证。州级官员还可以追究地方官员的刑事或民事责任。
Even with the federal effort on hold, state governments have pressed ahead with new rules that are already pushing ballot rejection rates higher. In North Carolina, the State Board of Elections implemented a new rule that requires voters to use at least three different envelopes to deliver their ballots and copies of their ID. Failure to seal any of the three envelopes would result in the ballot being rejected. So far, the state is already seeing an uptick in the ballot rejection rate compared to the previous election cycle, from 2.6% to 3.1% statewide, according to local media outlets.
周四,司法部预先起诉阿拉斯加州政府,以阻止该州备受关注的参议院选举结果的认证,前提是共和党现任参议员丹·S·沙利文败给民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉。司法部指控该州未能“保护选举的公正性”,因为它允许独立候选人丹·J·沙利文出现在选票上。
Certifying the election results After all the votes are tabulated, county officials will begin certifying the election results. Although each state has its own rules on raising and resolving a challenge from county officials, certifying the election results is a mandatory duty. According to the Campaign Legal Center, if an official delays or refuses to certify results, state officials and courts can step in to compel certification. State officials can also pursue criminal or civil penalties to hold local officials accountable.
司法部试图在如此晚期介入,完全违背部门政策,因为这里并无联邦法律的合法执行,并且引发了对政治干预的严重担忧,非党派选举创新与研究中心执行主任大卫·贝克尔说。“我无法回忆起任何政府曾试图阻止选举认证——当然也不会在投票结束前11天。”他说。
On Thursday, the Justice Department preemptively sued the state government of Alaska to block the certification of its closely-watched Senate race if Republican incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan loses to Democrat Mary Peltola. The department accused the state of failing to “protect the integrity of the election” by allowing independent candidate Dan J. Sullivan on the ballot.
各地选举官员预计,阿拉斯加不会是唯一提出认证挑战的州。2020年大选期间,特朗普总统曾试图施压乔治亚州州务卿布拉德·拉芬斯珀格,撤销该州对乔·拜登胜选的认证,并“找到11,780张选票”——这是推翻他在乔治亚州失利所需的票数。根据两党“1月6日”委员会的调查,特朗普的盟友还领导了一场施压运动,与密歇根州、宾夕法尼亚州、乔治亚州和亚利桑那州的立法者会面,试图推翻选举结果。
“The DOJ attempting to intervene at this late stage is entirely against department policy, as there is no legitimate enforcement of federal law here, and it raises serious concerns about political interference,” said David Becker, executive director of the nonpartisan Center for Election Innovation and Research. “I cannot recall an administration ever attempting to stop the certification of an election — and certainly not 11 days before polls close.”Various election officials expect that Alaska won’t be the only state that says a certification challenge. During the 2020 election, President Trump sought to pressure Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to undo the state’s certification of Joe Biden’s win and “find 11,780 votes”—the number needed to overturn his loss in Georgia. Trump’s allies also led a pressure campaign, meeting with lawmakers in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona in an attempt to overturn the election results, according to the investigation by the bipartisan January 6 committee.