
欢迎各位周末读者!下周二注定是个棘手的日子。目前民主党有望同时夺回参众两院,并在全美各州州长选举中大获全胜。
Welcome, Weekenders! Next Tuesday promises to be something of a doozy. At the moment, the Democrats are poised to take back both the Senate and the House of Representatives and clean up nicely in gubernatorial races across the country.
至于那些还没搬到内华达州因克莱恩村松林环绕湖畔的加州朋友们,我们将揭晓你们是否需要物色一位靠谱的理财规划师,还是一位凶狠的律师。
And for those of you in California who haven’t decamped to the pine-studded shores of Nevada’s Incline Village, we’ll find out whether you’ll need to find a good financial planner. Or a sharkish attorney.
没错,周二是亿万富翁税的判决日,加州选民将就第40号提案(Proposition 40)进行投票,该提案拟对十亿美元以上财富征收一次性5%的税,用于资助州内医疗和教育。该方案在科技精英中引发了巨大焦虑。虽然我想阅读这份通讯的人大多不会支持该提案,但我建议摇摆不定者——或已表示支持者——去看看Rippling创始人帕克·康拉德(Parker Conrad)在X上的言论,以便彻底搞清为何这个主意显得有些鲁莽。
Yes, Tuesday is billionaire tax judgment day, with California voters getting a chance to decide on Proposition 40, the ballot proposal that hopes to enact a one-time 5% tax on billion-dollar fortunes to fund healthcare and education in the state. The plan has caused great agita among the tech elite. And while I can’t imagine a tremendous number of the people reading this newsletter would favor the proposal, I suggest anyone on the fence—or already in support—should read what Rippling founder Parker Conrad has been saying on X to understand exactly why the idea seems somewhat harebrained.
结果胶着。今年早些时候的民调显示第40号提案支持率颇高,但近期民调显示选民态度转趋负面。《政治》(Politico)最新民调显示,45%的可能投票者支持,43%反对,12%未定。
The outcome looks tight. While polls from earlier this year showed fairly strong support for Prop 40, more recent ones suggest voters have turned more negative on the idea. A fresh poll by Politico found 45% of likely voters in favor, 43% against it and 12% undecided.
预测市场交易者对第40号提案前景持悲观态度。Polymarket给出的支持概率仅23%,Kalshi显示大致相同。当然,预测市场近期在巴西和以色列的选举结果上并非优秀的领先指标。
Prediction-market traders take a dim view of Prop 40’s odds. Polymarket scores just 23% in favor, while Kalshi shows just about the same. Granted, prediction markets weren’t great leading indicators lately for election results in Brazil and Israel.
在众多倾向民主党的团体和工会对40号提案表示反对之后,选民对该提案的支持率出现下降。这些组织包括美国计划生育联合会、加州教师协会和加州医学会。它们对40号提案提出了各种批评,其中之一是认为州议员实际上不会将资金用于医疗和教育。加州州长加文·纽森也表示反对40号提案。
The weakening support among voters comes after a slew of Democratic-aligned groups and trade unions have voiced opposition to Prop 40, including Planned Parenthood, the California Teachers Association and the California Medical Association. Those organizations have varied criticisms of Prop 40—one being that they think state lawmakers won’t actually get the money to healthcare and education. California Gov. Gavin Newsom has also said he opposes Prop 40.
如果40号提案失败,那将是谢尔盖·布林和帕特里克·科利森这类人的胜利。他们花了数月时间反对这项提案,并投入巨额资金用于广告和其他措施以击败该提案。资金最雄厚的反对组织是“建设更美好的加州”,该组织已从布林、Stripe公司的科利森、谷歌前首席执行官埃里克·施密特、风险投资家维诺德·科斯拉以及凯鹏华盈的约翰·多尔等人那里筹集了3.3亿美元。即使40号提案获得通过,支持者和反对者也都预计会围绕其合宪性展开一系列漫长的法庭斗争。
Should Prop 40 fail, it’ll be a victory for the Sergey Brins and Patrick Collisons of the world, who’ve spent months campaigning against the proposal and committing enormous sums of money to ads and other measures to defeat it. The best-funded group dedicated to torpedoing Prop 40 is Building a Better California, which itself has raised $330 million from Brin, Stripe’s Collison, former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, venture capitalist Vinod Khosla and Kleiner Perkins’ John Doerr, among many others. And even if Prop 40 passes, both supporters and opponents expect a lengthy series of court battles over its constitutionality.
加州民主党资深操盘手库珀·特博在与富有捐赠者的交谈中,40号提案始终是个绕不开的话题。“一天要提20次,”他说,“大家真的非常、非常在意。”
Prop 40 has been a constant matter of discussion in the conversations that Cooper Teboe, an indefatigable Democratic operative in California, has with wealthy donors. “It comes up 20 times a day,” he said. “Folks really, really care about it.”
40号提案获批的前景,让一些加州富豪在向民主党捐款上犹豫不决,而正值该党重新崛起、本想把科技精英重新拉回阵营之际。“这让他们干脆两手一摊,对民主党说‘去他妈的’,”特博说。“我听几个人说他们不捐了,理由是‘行,这财富税要把我榨干了,我得把每一分钱都省下来应付这笔税’。”
The prospect of Prop 40’s approval has led some wealthy Californians to hesitate to make political donations to Democrats at a time when the newly reascendant party might hope to bring the tech elite back into the fold. “It has made some of them throw up their arms and just say ‘Fuck it’ to the Democrats,” Teboe said. “I’ve heard from a few people who have stopped giving money because they’re like, ‘OK, this wealth tax thing is going to wipe me out. I’m going to save every single dollar I can for this tax.’”
即便40号提案落败,特博也认为它的出现本身就是未来趋势的先兆,预计未来几年全美会冒出类似法案。特博发现,许多捐赠者似乎与大多数美国人对经济现状的普遍焦虑脱节——这种不满源于高通胀和人工智能对就业影响的不确定性。特博说,这些捐赠者跟普通人接触最多的,就是“去保时捷路上跟司机聊两句”。——阿布拉姆·布朗(abe@theinformation.com) 收听:《午夜电台》演员伊桑·霍克与编剧斯科特·德里克森、C·罗伯特·卡吉尔有过多次愉快的电影合作,后两人撰写了《黑色电话》及其续集《黑色电话2》剧本,霍克主演了这两部恐怖片。
Even if Prop 40 fails, Teboe believes its mere existence is a harbinger of things to come and expects to see similar measures pop up around the country over the next few years. Teboe finds that many of the donors seem disconnected from the general unease most Americans feel about the state of the economy—a discontent over high inflation and the uncertainty of AI’s impact on jobs. The most contact those donors have with more ordinary mortals, Teboe said, is in “the conversations that they have with staff on the way to their Porsche.”—Abram Brown (abe@theinformation.com) Listening: “Midnight Radio”Actor Ethan Hawke has enjoyed several good cinematic outings with screenwriters Scott Derrickson and C. Robert Cargill, who penned the scripts for “The Black Phone” and “The Black Phone 2,” horror films that starred Hawke. (Derrickson and Cargill also wrote “Sinister.”)

(德里克森和卡吉尔还写过《恶魔》。)三人再度联手打造《午夜电台》,这是一档虚构播客,汲取了《阴阳魔界》和《X档案》的风格精髓。霍克饰演一位不具名的深夜电台节目主持人,节目专门探讨阴谋论与超自然现象。
The trio has reunited for “Midnight Radio,” a fictional podcast that borrows from the sensibilities of “The Twilight Zone” and “The X-Files.”Hawke is the unnamed host of a late-night radio show dedicated to exploring conspiracy theories and the supernatural.
他已经这样做了一段时间,虽然他仍拥有一批忠实的粉丝,但似乎对自己的节目有些厌倦——直到一个自称是前美国宇航员的人给霍克扮演的角色打电话,讲了一个离谱的故事:他和另一名宇航员实际上比俄罗斯人更早成为环绕地球轨道飞行的第一批人。其中只有一人返回了地球,这次旅程涉及跨维度旅行。但他为何突然在电台向一位乡村电台DJ透露自己的传奇经历?
He’s been at it for some time, and while he still has a devoted fanbase, he seems a bit bored by his program—that is, until a man who claims to be a former U.S. astronaut calls up Hawke’s character with a whopper of a story: He and another astronaut actually beat the Russians as the first people to orbit the Earth. Only one of them returned home, a journey that involved interdimensional travel. But why is he suddenly revealing his saga on air to a podunk AM jockey?
据这位前宇航员称,这是因为他最近解码了一系列隐藏在广播中的秘密信息,这些信息指出了霍克扮演的角色所在电台的地理坐标。
According to the former astronaut, it’s because he’s recently decoded a series of secret messages hidden in radio broadcasts that identified the geographical coordinates of the station from which Hawke’s character broadcasts.
故事的事件实时展开——保持高度紧张感——霍克的共同演员还有文森特·多诺费、诺亚·森蒂诺以及霍克的儿子利文。——阿布拉姆·布朗 阅读:《王子与窃贼》作者:马修·科尔 上周,贾里德·库什纳的律师威胁要起诉记者马修·科尔,库什纳是特朗普的女婿,也是美国中东问题的顶级特使之一。该起诉威胁是针对科尔著作《王子与窃贼》的早期摘录,该书讲述了库什纳在特朗普第一任期内的角色。
The story’s events unfold in real time—keeping the tension high—and Hawke is joined in the cast by Vincent D’Onofrio, Noah Centineo and Hawke’s son, Levon.—Abram Brown Reading: “Princes and Thieves” by Matthew Cole Last week, attorneys for Jared Kushner, the Trump son-in-law who serves as one of America’s top Middle East envoys, threatened to sue journalist Matthew Cole over an early excerpt from “Princes and Thieves,” Cole’s account of Kushner’s role in the first Trump administration.
摘录中包含一个爆炸性的指控——沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国在特朗普初任总统期间为库什纳在银行账户中存入了20亿美元,这是库什纳与阿拉伯王室之间更广泛阴谋的一部分,旨在影响美国外交政策并重塑中东。
The excerpt contained an explosive allegation—that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had placed $2 billion in bank accounts for Kushner during Donald Trump’s initial presidency, part of a broader conspiracy between Kushner and the Arab royals to influence U.S. foreign policy and remake the Middle East.
作为对法律威胁的回应,该书的出版商提前数天发行了《王子与窃贼》。
In response to the legal threat, the book’s publisher released “Princes and Thieves” several days early.
科尔关于库什纳所谓阴谋的细节,会让你目瞪口呆。(库什纳对此全部否认。)以下是科尔所说发生的部分事情:2016年,库什纳与阿联酋人在曼哈顿四季酒店会面后,资金被存入了相关账户,会谈中阿联酋人表达了与即将上任的特朗普白宫合作的浓厚兴趣。(阿联酋与奥巴马总统时期的关系曾一度冷淡。)库什纳随后与阿联酋人和沙特人会面,讨论他们对卡塔尔的不满,随后这两个国家对卡塔尔实施了长达数年的封锁;在他们看来,库什纳默许了这一行动。
Cole’s details about Kushner’s alleged schemes will make your mouth hang open. (Kushner denies it all.) Here’s just some of what Cole says happened: The money deposited in the accounts came after a 2016 meeting between Kushner and the Emiratis at the Four Seasons hotel in Manhattan, a discussion in which the Emiratis laid out their keen interest in working with the incoming Trump White House. (Relations had been chilly with President Barack Obama.) After Kushner later met with the Emiratis and the Saudis to discuss their grievances against Qatar, the two countries began their yearslong blockade of that country; in their minds, Kushner had given them a tacit greenlight.
封锁于2021年结束——正值卡塔尔达成一项秘密协议,为库什纳父亲拥有的一座纽约办公大楼提供财务救助。此外,流向库什纳的部分阿拉伯资金被分配给了黑水公司创始人埃里克·普林斯,他曾试图武装一名利比亚军阀,等等。
The blockade ended in 2021—just as Qatar struck a secret deal to financially rescue a New York office tower owned by Kushner’s father. In addition, the Arab money channeled to Kushner was partly dispensed to Erik Prince, the Blackwater founder, who attempted to arm a Libyan warlord, among other things.
库什纳是《王子与窃贼》中的两位主要人物之一。另一位是阿联酋统治者穆罕默德·本·扎耶德·阿勒纳哈扬(简称MBZ)酋长。这位酋长喜欢搞阴谋——比如他如何通过诋毁其同父异母的哥哥,并向父亲揭露其同性恋情事而登上王位。(阿联酋不遵循严格的长子继承制。)后来,MBZ与其沙特对手穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼王子建立了密切关系,指导这位沙特王室成员进行其自身冷酷的权力攀登。
Kushner is one of two principal characters in “Princes and Thieves.”The other is Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (aka MBZ), the Emirati ruler. The sheikh loves a scheme—take how he ascended the throne by discrediting his older half-brother and revealing his sibling’s gay affairs to their father. (The UAE does not follow strict primogeniture.) Later, MBZ struck up a close relationship with his counterpart in Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, coaching the Saudi royal through his own ruthless climb.
两人最想要的就是削弱伊朗,他们认为伊朗是严重威胁。有时MBZ会拉拢以色列参与其对伊朗的努力,以色列中央银行曾管理其中一个库什纳的银行账户。当然,库什纳本人对以色列深感兴趣,并在特朗普第一任期内试图促成以色列与巴勒斯坦之间的协议。
What both men wanted most was to neuter Iran, which they see as a grave threat. Sometimes MBZ roped Israel into his efforts against Iran, and Israel’s central bank administered one of the bank accounts for Kushner. Kushner himself, of course, is deeply interested in Israel and tried to arrange a deal between Israel and the Palestinians during the first Trump administration.
“贾里德希望海湾王室支持他强迫巴勒斯坦人与以色列达成协议的尝试,”科尔写道。“作为回报,海湾王室希望美国对伊朗采取强硬政策。”库什纳获得的银行账户里的钱“会润滑车轮”。科尔并不确切知道专门划拨给库什纳的账户里所有钱的去向。他也不知道特朗普了解库什纳行动的程度。而且,尽管他为《王子与窃贼》进行的报道大多在特朗普2021年卸任时结束,但科尔将聚光灯投向了笼罩着当前特朗普白宫的明显幽灵:库什纳已重返中东,担任一个不受国会监督的角色——而特朗普正与伊朗开战。
“Jared wanted the Gulf royals to support his attempt to force the Palestinians into a deal with Israel,” Cole writes. “In return, the Gulf royals wanted aggressive U.S. policy on Iran.”The money in the bank accounts provided to Kushner “would grease the wheels.”Cole does not know precisely what happened to all the money in the accounts earmarked for Kushner. Nor does he know how much Trump knew about Kushner’s actions. And while his reporting for “Princes and Thieves” largely concludes with Trump’s departure from office in 2021, Cole casts a spotlight on the obvious specter that hangs over the current Trump White House: Kushner has returned to the Middle East in a role with no congressional oversight—just as Trump has provoked a war with Iran.
这种结果似乎正是MBZ所期望的。——A.B.在加拿大海岸外的一个偏远岛屿上,这部新Netflix剧集的虚构背景斯努克岛的居民勉强维持生计。当局希望他们搬迁——但一些当地人坚持不走,包括看起来颇为饱经风霜的卡尔文·佩尼(乔什·哈奈特饰),他靠捞取冰川冰块并卖给镇上唯一一家兴旺的生意——一家伏特加蒸馏厂来谋生,这家蒸馏厂因用真正的融化冰山酿造烈酒而小有名气。
Such an outcome seems exactly what MBZ would’ve wanted.—A.B. On a remote island off Canada’s coast, the residents of Snook’s Arm, the fictional setting of this new Netflix series, are barely scraping by. The authorities want them to relocate—but some locals are holding out, including the rather weathered-looking Calvin Penney (Josh Hartnett), who makes a living scooping up chunks of glacial ice and selling them to the one thriving business in town, a vodka distillery that has won a little fame for making its liquor from genuine, melted-down icebergs.
当他拖回一块蒸馏厂不愿购买的、散发恶臭的冻物时,他把它带到一位当地科学家(麦肯齐·戴维斯饰)那里,后者很快发现——哎呀——那不是冰,而是一大块黏膜。佩尼不太确定该如何看待这一发现,况且他还有别的心事,比如努力说服女儿玛丽(鲁比·斯托克斯饰)回家,并管住他那个不成器的儿子韦德(《怪奇物语》中的查理·希顿饰)。卡尔文的第三个孩子杰伊(罗汉·坎贝尔饰)也有自己的麻烦。
When he hauls in a smelly block of frozen matter that the distillery won’t buy, he takes it over to a local scientist (Mackenzie Davis), who quickly discovers—eek—it’s not ice but a giant hunk of mucus membrane. Penney’s not quite sure what to make of that revelation, and besides, he’s got other things on his mind, like trying to convince his daughter, Mary (Ruby Stokes), to return home and hold onto his ne’er-do-well son Wade (Charlie Heaton from “Stranger Things”). A third Calvin offspring, Jay (Rohan Campbell), is in his own share of trouble.
《Below》带着一种令人愉悦的、带点调皮的古怪气息,语气让我想起苹果的《Widow’s Bay》,同样是一部关于奇异岛屿上怪事的恐怖喜剧混搭——当然,要想象Snook’s Arm成为下一座玛莎葡萄园岛,那是不可能的。节目节奏很快:第一集结束时,一大团触手已经撕碎了卡尔文的一个冰山猎手竞争对手。(是的,挺恶心。)随着融化的冰块漂浮四周,《Below》决心就世界气候危机说点什么。哈特内特的天然魅力和那头来自“下方”的可怕怪兽,让这部剧相当有趣。——A.B.
“Below” has a pleasant, winky off-kilteredness to it, a tone that reminded me a little of Apple’s “Widow’s Bay,” another horror-comedy mashup about the strange happenings on a weird island—though, yes, it is impossible to imagine Snook’s Arm ever becoming the next Martha’s Vineyard. The show moves fast: By the end of the first episode, a giant mass of tentacles has already ripped apart one of Calvin’s iceberg-hunting rivals. (Yeah, gross.) With all the melted ice bobbing around, “Below” is determined to have something to say about the world’s climate crisis. Hartnett’s innate appeal and the presence of that fearsome beastie from, uh, below keep it quite entertaining.—A.B.