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“恐惧氛围”:特朗普在中期选举前着手限制投票权'Atmosphere of fear': Trump moves to curtail voting rights ahead of the midterms

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“恐惧氛围”:特朗普在中期选举前试图限制投票权美国人将于11月3日参加中期选举,共和党可能失去对国会的控制权,从而危及美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的立法议程。根据美国宪法,选举由各州分别组织——但这并未阻止美国总统唐纳德·特朗普试图在投票前施加影响。

'Atmosphere of fear': Trump moves to curtail voting rights ahead of the midterms Americans vote on November 3 in midterm elections that could see Republicans lose control of Congress, endangering US President Donald Trump's legislative agenda. Under the US Constitution, elections are organized by the respective states – but that has not halted US President Donald Trump from trying to wield his influence ahead of the vote.

特朗普有挑战不利选举结果的历史,最著名的是他虚假指责自己在2020年败给前总统乔·拜登是因为大规模投票舞弊。

Trump has a history of challenging unfavorable election results, notably falsely blaming his 2020 defeat by former president Joe Biden on widespread voting fraud.

“在2026年投票前夕,特朗普政府试图将联邦政府插手到选举过程的几乎每一个方面,”竞选法律中心投票倡导与合作伙伴关系主任乔纳森·迪亚兹说。

"The Trump administration has tried to insert the federal government into almost every aspect of the election process” in the lead-up to the 2026 vote, said Jonathan Diaz, director for voting advocacy and partnerships at the Campaign Legal Center.

迪亚兹补充道:“我认为长期风险非常重大,但就这些中期选举而言——即使他在改变规则或胁迫州和地方选举官员按其意愿行事方面没有成功——这也制造了一种恐惧和不确定的氛围。”

“The long-term risks I think are very significant, but for these midterms in particular – even if he hasn't been successful in changing the rules or in coercing state and local election officials to do what he wants – it's created an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty,” Diaz added.

根据美联社-NORC公共事务研究中心的一项新民调,只有55%的民主党人表示他们相信中期选举后的最终计票将是准确的,而共和党人中这一比例为38%。

In a new poll by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs, only 55 percent of Democrats said they are confident the final count after the midterm will be accurate, compared to 38 percent of Republicans.

以下是特朗普政府试图——在许多情况下未能成功——干预中期选举投票的一些例子。

The following are some examples of how the Trump administration has tried – and in many cases, failed – to interfere in the midterm vote.

《SAVE法案》 特朗普反复声称大量非公民在美国选举中投票,尽管实际数字显示这种情况极其罕见。美国选举投票权保留给公民,且已经要求出示身份证件;任何试图投票的非公民可能面临包括罚款、监禁或驱逐出境在内的严厉处罚。

The SAVE Act Trump has repeatedly claimed that large numbers of noncitizens are voting in US elections, despite the actual numbers showing that this is exceedingly rare. Voting in US elections is reserved for citizens and already requires an ID; any non-citizens who attempt to vote can face stiff penalties including fines, prison or deportation.

即使是支持特朗普投票限制措施的智库也未能发现大规模舞弊的证据。

Even think tanks that support Trump's voting restrictions have failed to find evidence of widespread fraud.

《纽约时报》4月报道称:“传统基金会记录在案的选民欺诈案例数据库显示,1982年至2025年间有100起非公民投票案例。这约占同期总统大选中投出的13亿多张选票的0.000008%。”

“The Heritage Foundation’s database of documented cases of voter fraud includes 100 cases of noncitizens voting from 1982 to 2025. That is about 0.000008 percent of more than 1.3 billion votes cast in presidential elections during that time,” the New York Times reported in April.

尽管如此,特朗普一直在推动立法者通过《保障美国选民资格法案》(SAVE Act),该法案将要求人们出具“美国公民身份的文件证明”才能投票。

Nevertheless, Trump has been pushing lawmakers to pass the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, which would require people to present “documentary proof of United States citizenship” to vote.

美国不向公民发放全国性身份证,根据《保障美国选民资格法案》,如果驾照或其他官方身份证明文件未标明出生地,则不足以作为投票凭件。

The United States does not issue a national identity card to its citizens, and under the SAVE Act a driver’s license or other official form of identification would not be sufficient for voting if it does not indicate a place of birth.

可接受的身份证明文件包括有效的美国护照、军人身份证、显示持有人出生于美国的有效政府颁发带照片身份证,或出生证明——但仅限于与该人当前姓名完全一致的出生证明,这可能给婚后改姓的6900万女性和跨性别群体带来麻烦。

Acceptable forms of ID would include a valid US passport, a military ID card, a valid government-issued photo ID showing the person was born in the United States, or a birth certificate – but only if it matches the person’s current name exactly, which could pose a problem for the 69 million women who changed their names after getting married and the trans community.

竞选法律中心指出,超过2100万美国人,即近10%的有投票资格的美国人,无法获取公民身份证明文件,其中以年轻人、低收入人群和有色人种为主。民主与公民参与中心2024年的一份报告发现,3%的有色人种缺乏出生证明、护照或归化文件等美国公民身份证明。相比之下,只有1%的白人美国人没有此类文件。

According to the Campaign Legal Center, more than 21 million Americans, or nearly 10 percent of voting-age Americans, lack access to documentary proof of citizenship, notably young people, those in lower income brackets and people of color. A 2024 report by the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement found that 3 percent of people of color lack proof of US citizenship like a birth certificate, passport or naturalization documents. By comparison, only 1 percent of white Americans have no such documentation.

共和党对该立法提出的一项修正案还旨在通过改革邮寄投票和网络投票系统以符合更严格的身份证件要求,从而限制这两种投票方式。

A GOP amendment to the legislation also aimed to curtail the ability to vote by mail or online by overhauling these systems to comply with the stricter ID measures.

该法案于2月在众议院通过,随后因缺乏支持而在参议院搁置。特朗普的盟友仍在寻求通过预算协调程序推动其通过。

The legislation passed the US House of Representatives in February before languishing in the Senate due to a lack of support. Trump allies are still looking to get it passed through the budget reconciliation process.

有争议的数据库 去年,特朗普政府扩大了一个有争议的联邦数据库——系统化外籍人士权利核查系统(Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements,简称SAVE),该系统旨在核实某人是否为公民,从而决定其是否有资格获得政府福利。但此次扩大允许各州利用该系统核实某人是否具备投票资格。

Controversial database Last year the Trump administration expanded a controversial federal database, the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (also known as SAVE), which exists to verify whether someone is a citizen and thus qualifies for government benefits. But the expansion allowed states to use it to verify whether someone is eligible to vote.

至少25个州选择加入这一自愿系统,在一名美国联邦地区法官于6月以隐私担忧和可能导致数千名合格选民被移除为由叫停该系统前,该系统已扫描了6700万份登记记录。

At least 25 states opted into the voluntary system, and it scanned 67 million registrations before a US district judge blocked it in June over privacy concerns and fears it could remove thousands of eligible voters.

由于SAVE使用历史移民数据,其记录往往已过时,导致那些后来已入籍成为公民的人被标记。美联社报道,在得克萨斯州特拉维斯县,被标记为非公民的97人中——占被标记者的10%,甚至可能高达21%——实际上是美国国民。

Because SAVE uses historical immigration data its records are often out of date, which results in flagging people who have since become naturalized citizens. In Travis County, Texas, 97 people flagged as noncitizens – 10 percent of them, and possibly up to 21 percent – were actually US nationals, the AP reported.

但美国最高法院在9月的一项裁决中解除了该法官的禁令,允许继续使用该数据库。

But the US Supreme Court lifted the judge's block in a September ruling, allowing use of the database to go ahead.

不过,该裁决对中期选举的影响可能有限,因为各州不得在选举前90天内从选民名册中清除人员。

The effects of that ruling on the midterms could be limited, however, as states cannot purge people from electoral rolls less than 90 days before an election.

迪亚兹表示:“SAVE在核实个人公民身份方面极其不可靠,”并补充说,这对入籍公民尤其如此。

“SAVE is incredibly unreliable when it comes to verifying the citizenship status of an individual person,” Diaz said, adding that this is especially true for naturalized citizens.

指控与逮捕 特朗普政府还利用法院追究非公民投票者的责任。司法部在10月中旬表示,在过去七周内,已在20个州对113人提出指控,罪名涉及投票或登记违规。此前该部门曾表示,已对约90人因2026年选举不当行为提出指控,其中包括50名涉嫌以非公民身份投票的人。

Charges and arrests The Trump administration has also used the courts to pursue noncitizen voters. The Justice Department said in mid-October it had charged 113 people across 20 states with either voting or registration offenses in the past seven weeks. It earlier said it had charged some 90 people for election misconduct in 2026, including 50 who are suspected of having voted as noncitizens.

何塞·安东尼奥·巴努埃洛斯-迪亚斯今年42岁,已在美国生活了40年。他在2007年左右申请驾照时被指控试图投票。加利福尼亚州居民在办理驾照的同时会被提示登记投票。

Jose Antonio Banuelos-Diaz, 42, has been living in the United States for 40 years. He was accused of trying to to vote in 2007, around the time when he applied for a driver's license. California residents are prompted to to vote at the same time they get their license.

“我从未投票,因为我知道我不能投票,”他在被捕后告诉美联社记者,否认曾试图投票。“如果有错误,他们应该马上指出来,而不是20年后才追究。”他随后获释,但若罪名成立,最高可面临五年监禁。

“I have never voted because I know I can’t vote,” he told AP after his arrest, denying he tried to. “If there was a mistake, they should have called me out right away, not 20 years later.”He has since been released but faces five years in prison if convicted.

特朗普政府还起诉加利福尼亚州选举官员,试图阻止该州统计约2万张据称由非公民寄出的邮寄选票。但一名联邦法官裁定计票应继续进行,称政府的请求“违反了长期确立的宪法原则,即各州对其选举拥有控制权”。

The Trump administration also sued California election officials to try to prevent the state from counting some 20,000 mail-in ballots it says were sent by noncitizens. But a federal judge ruled the count should go ahead, saying the administration's request "violates longstanding constitutional principles mandating that states have control over their elections".

竞选法律中心的迪亚斯表示,该名单不准确。“加利福尼亚州查看名单后表示,其中一半人出生在美国,所以他们是公民,”他说。对于另一半人,“你们提供的这组数据中,我们没有足够的数据来识别这些人,更不用说核实……我们所使用的内容了。”

Diaz of the Campaign Legal Center said the list was inaccurate. "California looked at the list and said, well, half of these people were born in the United States, so they are citizens," he said. For the other half, "we don't have enough data in this set that you've given us to identify these people, much less verify ... what we're using".

特朗普的司法部向近50个州发函,要求提供未经遮盖的选民登记名册副本。随后至少30个州和哥伦比亚特区因拒不提供名册被起诉;其中26起诉讼后来被驳回。至少16个州自愿移交了名册,或承诺提供名册。

Trump's Department of Justice sent letters to nearly all 50 states demanding unredacted copies of their voter registration rolls. At least 30 states and the District of Columbia were later sued to obtain their voter registration lists; 26 of those lawsuits were subsequently dismissed. At least 16 states willingly handed over, or promised to provide, their lists.

迪亚斯说,特朗普对邮寄投票也存在“非理性”的怀疑,原因之一是2020年大选因新冠疫情,许多人依赖邮寄投票——而那次大选特朗普落败了。

Restricting mail-in voting Trump has also been “irrationally” suspicious of mail-in voting, Diaz said, adding that one reason is that many people relied on mail-in voting in 2020 – when he lost the last election – because of Covid-19.

3月,特朗普签署了一项行政命令,为美国邮政系统(USPS)制定了新规定,该规定本将对选民专用数据和选票信封实施新标准。美国最高法院随后于9月叫停了该措施。

In March, Trump signed an executive order that created new regulations for the US postal system, the USPS, that would have imposed new standards on voter-specific data and ballot envelopes. The US Supreme Court then blocked the measure in September.

但如果该命令生效,本可能阻止数千人投票,且对民主党人影响不成比例,因为民主党人使用邮寄选票的可能性略高。根据麻省理工学院选举数据与科学实验室(MIT Election Data & Science Lab)的一份报告,2024年有37%的民主党人表示通过邮寄方式投票,而共和党人这一比例为24%。

But if it had gone through, this order could have prevented thousands from voting, disproportionately affecting Democrats, who are slightly more likely to use mail-in ballots. According to a report by the MIT Election Data & Science Lab, 37 percent of Democrats reported voting by mail in 2024, compared with 24 percent of Republicans.

美国大选定在周二举行,许多人选择邮寄投票而非亲自前往投票站,以避免请一天假。

Elections in the United States are held on Tuesdays, and many people choose to use mail-in voting instead of going to the polls in person to avoid missing a day of work.

尽管特朗普政府已对最高法院的裁决提出上诉,但法院不太可能在中期选举前恢复该命令。

While the Trump administration has appealed the Supreme Court’s decision, the court is unlikely to reinstate it ahead of the midterms.

迪亚兹表示,他“肯定会继续设法让邮寄投票更加困难,并增加新的限制。我认为他成功的机会不大,但他会坚持尝试”。

According to Diaz, he will “certainly continue to try to make mail-in voting more difficult and to add new restrictions to it. I don't think he has much chance of success, but he will keep trying”.

选区划分操纵 由于特朗普敦促共和党重新划分数十个美国众议院选区以利于本党,特别是在得克萨斯州,2026年美国国会选区版图与2024年大选时已大不相同。

Gerrymandering The US congressional map looks very different in 2026 than it did in the 2024 election after Trump urged Republicans to redraw dozens of US House of Representatives districts to favor the party, notably in Texas.

这种被称为“选区划分操纵”(gerrymandering)的政治选区重划手段,被用来沿阶级或种族界线剥夺选民权利。共和党有时寻求拆分黑人人口聚居区,以降低其集体投票力量,因为从统计学上讲,他们更倾向于投票给民主党。

This form of political redistricting, known as gerrymandering, has been used to disadvantage voters along class or race lines. Republicans sometimes seek to split up areas with a large Black population to lower their collective voting power since they are statistically more likely to vote Democrat.

“重新划分选区是一个比这些中期选举大得多的问题,”迪亚兹说。“当大多数美国选民在谁代表他们进入国会的问题上没有真正的选择时,这对民主的长远健康是不利的。”得克萨斯州立法者通过了一张新的选举版图,将使共和党在中期选举中获得五个更多的美国众议院席位后,加利福尼亚州举行了一次公投,选民以压倒性优势批准了一张新的国会选区版图,将使民主党获得五个更多的席位。南方各州的共和党人纷纷效仿得克萨斯州的做法。

“Redistricting is a problem much bigger than these midterm elections,” Diaz said. “It is bad for the long-term health of democracy when a majority of American voters do not have a meaningful choice in who represents them in Congress.”After Texas lawmakers adopted a new electoral map that would give Republicans five more US House seats in the midterm elections, California held a referendum in which voters overwhelmingly approved a new congressional map that would give Democrats five more seats. Republicans in Southern states have rushed to follow Texas’s lead.

而在助推共和党努力方面,最高法院于四月投票决定缩小依据《投票权法案》挑战可能存在种族歧视的选区版图的法律依据,这有可能为未来的重新划分选区打开方便之门。

And in a boost for GOP efforts, the Supreme Court voted in April to narrow the legal grounds for challenging maps that may be racially discriminatory under the Voting Rights Act, potentially opening the door to future redistricting.

由于这一推动,共和党在16个选区获得了优势。但路透社最近的一项分析表明,其中有九个选区要么难以预测胜负,要么预计将在11月3日由民主党赢得,这主要归因于特朗普因生活成本上升和不得人心的伊朗战争而导致的低支持率。

Republicans gained an advantage in 16 districts because of this push. But a recent Reuters analysis suggests that nine of them are either too close to call or expected to go to the Democrats on November 3, largely due to Trump’s low approval ratings over the rising cost of living and the unpopular Iran war.

“选区划分操纵的问题在于,你总是根据上一次选举的数据来绘制版图,”迪亚兹说。“所以如果选民改变了他们的偏好,你绘制的版图可能无法像你想象的那样成功地为你的政党巩固支持。”

"The thing with gerrymandering is that you're always drawing maps based on data from the last election,” Diaz said. "So if voters change their preferences, the maps that you draw may not be as successful in securing support for your party as you thought.”

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