Brandywine Global Investment Management 表示，一旦通胀压力缓解、伊朗战争风险消退，菲律宾债券可能成为亚洲表现最好的债市之一。
Philippine bonds may become one of Asia’s best performers once inflation pressures ease and risks from the Iran war recede, according to Brandywine Global Investment Management.
这家管理资产规模达 630 亿美元的资产管理公司已持有菲律宾债券，押注通胀降温将给央行腾出降息空间，而经济增长依然疲弱。
The $63 billion asset manager already holds Philippine debt, betting that cooling inflation will give the central bank room to cut interest rates as economic growth remains weak.
“一旦通胀开始企稳，我认为这个市场将会上涨，” 该公司驻新加坡投资组合经理 Carol Lye 在接受采访时表示。Brandywine 由 Franklin Templeton 全资拥有。
“Once inflation starts to stabilize, I think this market is going to run,” Carol Lye, a Singapore-based portfolio manager at the firm, which is fully owned by Franklin Templeton, said in an interview.
受伊朗冲突推高油价及输入性通胀影响，菲律宾债券遭受重创。据彭博汇编数据，今年以来 10 年期收益率飙升逾 200 个基点，涨幅居新兴亚洲之首。Lye 称当前收益率水平“非常有吸引力”，并表示一旦地缘政治紧张局势缓和，菲律宾债券表现可能跑赢地区同行。
Philippine bonds have been battered as the Iran conflict pushes up oil prices and imported inflation. The 10-year yield has surged more than 200 basis points this year, the most in emerging Asia, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Lye called current yield levels “very attractive,” saying the country’s debt may outperform regional peers once geopolitical tensions ease.
与此同时，菲律宾中央银行 (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) 10 月大幅加息 50 个基点以遏制物价压力。自伊朗战争爆发以来，它是东南亚收紧政策最激进的央行。Lye 认为，BSP 通过激进行动防止价格冲击传导至更广泛经济，正在做“一些正确的事情”。
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, meanwhile, hiked rates by an outsized 50 basis points in October to stem price pressures. It has been the most aggressive central bank in Southeast Asia in tightening policy since the start of the Iran war. Lye said the BSP is doing “some of the right things” by acting aggressively to prevent the price shock from filtering through to the broader economy.
她表示，Brandywine 仍有空间增持，但流动性不佳以及收益率进一步上行的风险，目前阻碍公司进一步买入。
Brandywine has room to increase its holdings, though poor liquidity and the risk of yields rising further are keeping the firm from buying more for now, she said.