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新兴市场货币下跌,交易员等待伊朗局势进展及美国数据Emerging-Market FX Slips as Traders Await Iran Progress, US Data

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新兴市场货币下跌,投资者权衡中东持续紧张局势,并等待本周晚些时候公布的美国经济数据。

Emerging-market currencies fell as investors weighed lingering Middle East tensions and awaited US economic data later this week.

发展中国家货币指数下跌0.2%,触及一个月低点。韩元和新台币在股票外流背景下表现弱于地区同行。

A gauge of developing-country currencies slipped 0.2% to a one-month low. The South Korean won and Taiwanese dollar underperformed regional peers amid equity outflows.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示,在本周中期选举后决定是否恢复对伊朗的打击之前,他希望给外交更多时间。布伦特原油下跌约3%,至每桶约110美元,此前周五曾上涨逾2%。投资者也在等待美国劳动力数据,以寻找美联储政策前景的线索。

US President Donald Trump said he wants to give diplomacy more time before deciding whether to resume strikes on Iran after this week’s midterm elections. Brent crude fell around 3% to about $110 a barrel after gaining more than 2% on Friday. Investors are also awaiting US labor data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.

“就业韧性将强化对美联储进一步加息的预期,而高油价则给该地区能源进口国带来额外拖累,”三菱日联银行外汇策略师劳埃德·陈在一份报告中写道。“美国高收益率和高油价的组合将继续成为地区外汇不利的背景。”新兴市场股票抹去早前跌幅,上涨0.2%,部分投资者将近期与AI相关股票的抛售视为买入机会。韩国、香港和印度的基准指数上涨,而日本和台湾的指数下跌。

“Resilient employment would reinforce expectations for further Fed tightening, while elevated oil prices provide an additional drag on the region’s energy importers,” MUFG Bank FX strategist Lloyd Chan wrote in a note. “The combination of higher US yields and expensive oil would remain an unfavorable backdrop for regional FX.”Emerging-market equities erased earlier losses to gain 0.2% as some investors viewed the recent selloff in AI-related shares as a buying opportunity. Benchmark indexes in South Korea, Hong Kong and India advanced, while those in Japan and Taiwan fell.

摩根士丹利分析师(包括乔纳森·加纳)在一份报告中写道,新兴市场股票估值“比之前两个低点更便宜”,但围绕美国中期选举和中东局势的不确定性依然存在。“我们尚未持建设性态度,但认为当前的修正已相当充分,”他们表示。

EM equity valuations are “cheaper than at the two prior troughs” but uncertainties surrounding US midterm elections and the Middle East situation remain, Morgan Stanley analysts including Jonathan Garner wrote in a note. “We are not yet constructive but believe the current correction is now well advanced,” they said.

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