北京/芝加哥，11月2日 —— 路透社对海关数据的分析显示，尽管达成了购买数十亿美元进口商品的协议，但中国今年除大豆之外对美国农产品的采购额仍有望创下七年来的新低，凸显了该协议长期存在的不确定性。
BEIJING/CHICAGO, Nov 2 - Chinese buying of US farm goods other than soybeans is on track for a seven-year low this year despite an agreement to purchase billions of dollars in imports, a Reuters analysis of customs data showed, underscoring long-running uncertainties about the deal.
今年5月，白宫表示北京同意从2026年起每年购买170亿美元的美国农产品，今年的目标按比例折算。这些采购是在去年10月作出的购买美国大豆承诺之外追加的。
In May, the White House said Beijing agreed to buy $17 billion of US agricultural goods annually from 2026, with this year's target prorated. Those purchases were on top of a commitment made in October last year to buy US soybeans.
在分析显示，尽管中国有望实现其大豆采购目标，但在1月至9月期间，中国仅购买了价值72亿美元的其他农产品——从肉类到玉米。进口额处于2019年第一轮贸易战最顶峰时期以来该同期的最低水平。
While China is on track to hit its soybean target, it bought just $7.2 billion worth of the other agricultural goods — from meat to corn — between January and September, the analysis showed. Imports are at their lowest for this period since 2019, at the height of the first trade war.
目前尚不清楚北京是否违反了其承诺，因为白宫尚未说明时间表是在5月宣布后开始计算，还是将在中国拟议的关税削减最终敲定后开始，而关税削减尚未完成。
Whether Beijing is in breach of its commitment is unclear because the White House has not said whether the clock began after the announcement in May or will start once China's proposed tariff cuts have been finalised, which has yet to happen.
尽管如此，采购低迷加深了对今年进口激增的疑虑，令正在应对高燃料价格的美国农民感到沮丧，并推动了民主党人在周二中期选举前争取心脏地带选票、使其脱离总统唐纳德·特朗普的共和党阵营的努力。
The sluggish buying nonetheless deepens doubts about a surge in imports this year, frustrating US farmers who are grappling with high fuel prices and driving Democrats' efforts to win heartland voters away from President Donald Trump's Republican party ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections.
行业团体“全国高粱生产商”首席执行官蒂姆·拉斯说：“我们的种植者是爱国者，但有很多粮仓都装满了谷物，而且人们当然渴望看到谷物贸易。大豆在交易，但其他大宗商品没有。”美国农业部将有关按比例折算时间表的问题转交给美国贸易代表办公室。美国贸易代表办公室、白宫和中国商务部未回应置评请求。需求疲软、全球竞争令美国出口蒙阴分析师表示，即使采购回升，在中国需求疲软和竞争激烈的情况下，除非北京下令国有买家采取行动，否则该目标很难实现。
"Our growers are patriots, but there's a lot of bins of grain full and certainly a desire to see grain trade," said Tim Lust, chief executive of National Sorghum Producers, an industry group. "Beans are trading, but other commodities are not." The US Department of Agriculture referred questions about the prorating schedule to the Office of the US Trade Representative. The USTR, the White House and China's Ministry of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment. WEAK DEMAND, GLOBAL COMPETITION CLOUD US EXPORTS Even if buying picks up, weak Chinese demand and stiff competition make the target difficult to meet unless Beijing orders state-owned buyers into action, analysts said.
以玉米为例。在2021年的巅峰时期，中国进口了价值56亿美元的该农作物——近2000万公吨。上个月，中国国有贸易商旗下的期货经纪公司中粮期货表示，由于国内供应充足等原因，美国玉米缺乏竞争力。该公司预测，在9月开始的2026/27销售年度，美国玉米的进口量约为90万吨。
Consider corn. At its peak in 2021, China imported $5.6 billion worth of the crop - almost 20 million metric tons. Last month, COFCO Futures, a futures broker affiliated with the Chinese state trader, said US corn was not competitive partly because of ample domestic supply. It forecast imports of about 900,000 tons of US corn for the 2026/27 marketing year, which started in September.
2021年，美国对华高粱出口量达到峰值650万公吨，价值21亿美元，而现在正面临来自巴西的竞争，巴西于2025年9月获得了准入资格。Marex高级农业策略师爱德华多·瓦宁表示，今年迄今为止，巴西已向中国运送了170万公吨货物，并计划再运送近100万公吨。
US sorghum shipments to China peaked at 6.5 million metric tons worth $2.1 billion in 2021 and now face competition from Brazil, which secured access in September 2025. Brazil has shipped 1.7 million metric tons to China so far this year, with nearly 1 million additional tons planned for shipment, said Eduardo Vanin, senior agriculture strategist at Marex.
美国政府数据显示，截至8月底，美国对中国出口了约370万吨高粱，显著高于前一年同期（当时由于双边紧张局势贸易陷入停滞），但过去四个月销售额已经枯竭。
The US exported about 3.7 million tons of sorghum to China up to the end of August, US government data shows, significantly higher than a year earlier, when trade stalled amid bilateral tensions, but sales have dried up over the past four months.
中国对曾经价值数十亿美元的美国肉类的进口面临类似的限制。猪肉和鸡肉国内供应过剩，而由于牛群数量减少，美国牛肉价格高昂。
Chinese imports of US meat, once worth several billion dollars, face similar constraints. Pork and chicken are oversupplied domestically while US beef prices are high because herds have declined.
此外，尽管中国在5月为400多家美国牛肉厂更新了出口许可证，但牛肉仍面临监管壁垒。美国肉类出口联合会的数据显示，约有一半的美国育肥牛屠宰产能不具备对华出口资格。该联合会发言人乔·舒勒表示，一些工厂在遭到中国当局通报发现中国未批准的物质残留后被禁止出口。
In addition, beef still faces regulatory barriers despite China renewing export licences in May for more than 400 US beef plants. About half of US fed-cattle slaughter capacity is ineligible to export to China, according to the US Meat Export Federation. Some plants were barred after Chinese authorities reported finding residues of substances not approved in China, said Joe Schuele, a spokesperson for the federation.
分析师表示，这些限制意味着北京可能需要依靠国有买家来达到17亿美元的目标，就像它对大豆所做的那样。他们补充说，这是否会发生最终是一个政治问题。
Such constraints mean Beijing will probably need to lean on state buyers to meet the $17 billion target, as it is already doing with soybeans, said analysts. Whether that happens is ultimately a political question, they added.
专注于中国的农业市场情报公司Sitonia Consulting的联合创始人达林·弗里德里希斯说：“这其中很大一部分似乎取决于中国将在多大程度上利用国有企业进行采购。”
"Much of this seems to depend on how much China will use state-owned enterprises to do purchases," said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Sitonia Consulting, a China-focused agricultural market intelligence firm.
“如果没有定向的、非市场的采购，很难达到170亿美元的非大豆采购额。”
"It's difficult to get to $17 billion in non-soybeans without directed, non-market, purchases."