华盛顿，10月8日——那些未能签订的采购协议，就像时间一样，会逐渐被遗忘。尽管美国食品商品出口行业强烈支持唐纳德·特朗普总统，但这个全球领先的出口产业仍面临着来自华盛顿的多重打击。贸易紧张局势改变了中国对大豆、玉米、高粱和牛肉的采购计划；许多采购订单已经转向巴西，使得这个南美国家可能成为美国最大的食品供应来源。然而，农业州的政界报复措施也无法挽回失去的生意。
WASHINGTON, Oct 8 - Lost purchase agreements, like time, tend to slip away. The world-leading US food commodity export machine is teetering under a series of Washington-inflicted blows, despite the sector’s strong support for President Donald Trump. Trade tensions have reoriented China's commitments to buy soybeans, corn, sorghum and beef. Much of the purchasing has shifted to Brazil, to the point where the South American powerhouse may now be the top breadbasket. Farm country's political retribution won't win back lost business, either.
根据民意调查，在11月的国会中期选举中，爱荷华州、堪萨斯州、德克萨斯州和内布拉斯加州等农业州的选举竞争异常激烈。这些州的共和党人在贸易和经济政策问题上与特朗普产生了分歧，尤其是伊朗战争导致柴油和化肥价格飙升的问题。特朗普与加拿大的争端尤其具有破坏性——美国85%的钾肥都来自加拿大；如果无法从加拿大进口钾肥，美国将不得不从俄罗斯的盟友白俄罗斯进口。
Agricultural states including Iowa, Kansas, Texas, and Nebraska, have unusually close election contests in the November congressional midterms, according to polling. Republicans in those states have broken with Trump over trade and economic policy, especially the war in Iran that has pushed up diesel and fertilizer prices. Trump's tiff with Canada — where the US gets as much as 85% of its potash — is particularly harmful.
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The next best option is shipping it overseas from Belarus, a Russian ally. The bigger risk to the American farm belt is the loss of China as a customer, though.
对美国农业带来说，更大的风险在于失去中国这个市场。今年，中国远未达到其与美国约定的2500万吨大豆的采购量：截至7月，中国仅采购了1240万吨大豆，同比下降了45%。随着采购季节的临近，这一缺口已被巴西填补。其他农产品的处境更为糟糕：中国今年完全没有购买美国的玉米，高粱生产商也在积极争取签订采购协议。
The People's Republic is nowhere close to meeting its purchase commitment with the US of 25 million metric tons of soybeans this year: As of July, China had booked 12.4 million metric tons of the crop, down 45% year-over-year. The buying season is coming to a close and the gap has already been filled by Brazil. It’s worse for other products. China hasn’t purchased any US corn this year, and sorghum producers are agitating to lock in agreements.
美国对中国的牛肉出口量在2025年骤降至1.54亿磅，而2024年这一数字还为4.74亿磅。高昂的价格以及牛肉牛群的减少是导致出口量下降的主要原因。美国农业部预测，到2027年，美国的牛肉进口量将增加，而出口量则会继续下降。由于中国已经允许数百家美国牛肉生产企业的出口许可证到期，并增加了从澳大利亚的进口量，因此出口形势几乎没有好转的希望。
US beef exports to China, opens new tab fell to 154 million pounds in 2025 from 474 million pounds in 2024. Record high prices and a depleted herd have hurt. The Agriculture Department projects beef imports to rise and sales overseas to decline through 2027. There is little hope for a reversal since China has allowed the export licenses for hundreds of US beef facilities to expire, and boosted its purchases from Australia.
针对特朗普贸易政策的强烈反对声浪可能会带来一定的可预测性，从而缓解价格压力；不过，恢复失去的出口市场至原来的水平可能已经变得不可能，这可能导致美国的牛肉产量长期下降。中国作为美国牛肉的主要市场，其地位难以被其他国家取代。维持现有客户比开发新客户要便宜得多。
在最近华盛顿举行的美中峰会上，中国被排除在关税减免的范围内，因此未来几个月中国对大豆的采购量很可能会减少。
A backlash against Trump’s trade and foreign policy could lead to some predictability and relieve price pressure. Restoring lost export markets to their former benchmark may prove impossible, leading US production to permanently decline. China is hard to replace. Customer retention is a lot cheaper than customer acquisition. China's soybean buying is likely to decline in the months ahead after it was excluded from proposed tariff relief during the recent US-China summit in Washington.
由于美国和以色列对伊朗的战争以及乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击，全球柴油供应受到了严重冲击。
Global diesel supplies have been squeezed by the US-Israeli war on Iran and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.
本文作者为路透社Breakingviews专栏作家，所表达的观点仅代表个人观点。
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
Breakingviews是路透社旗下的金融评论平台，是全球最具影响力的财经资讯来源。作为路透社旗下的金融评论品牌，我们每天都会深入分析全球发生的重大商业和经济事件。一个由约30名记者组成的全球团队（分布在纽约、伦敦、香港等主要城市）提供实时的专业分析。
Breakingviews Reuters Breakingviews is the world's leading source of agenda-setting financial insight. As the Reuters brand for financial commentary, we dissect the big business and economic stories as they break around the world every day. A global team of about 30 correspondents in New York, London, Hong Kong and other major cities provides expert analysis in real time.
加布里埃尔·鲁宾（Gabriel Rubin）是路透社Breakingviews的驻华盛顿特区商业和经济专栏作家。他在《华尔街日报》工作了八年，负责报道经济、政治和金融监管方面的新闻，后于2024年5月加入Breakingviews。他拥有圣路易斯华盛顿大学的历史学和西班牙语学士学位。
Gabriel Rubin is a U.S. columnist for Reuters Breakingviews covering business and economics in Washington, DC. He joined Breakingviews in May 2024 after eight years at the Wall Street Journal, where he covered economics, politics, and financial regulation. He holds a bachelor's degree in history and Spanish from Washington University in St. Louis.
周四股市整体走低，美国科技与人工智能板块跌幅显著，市场对人工智能革命能否带来盈利的担忧日益加剧。油价则大幅上涨，尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普承诺在11月3日美国中期选举前不会对伊朗发动攻击，但这一承诺并未对油价产生抑制作用；与此同时，美国长期国债收益率的下滑也未能为股市提供多少支撑。
Stocks mostly fell on Thursday, with US tech and AI chalking up notable losses as worries intensified over the AI revolution's profitability. Oil prices rose sharply, shrugging off a pledge by US President Donald Trump not to attack Iran before the November 3 US midterm elections, while a slide in long-dated US bond yields also failed to give equities much support.