For decades, Kansas has been one of the safest states for Republicans. This year, that looks a little less certain. A month before the US midterm elections, polls there — as well as surprisingly competitive races elsewhere in the Midwest — are raising the question: Is economic pressure brought on by Donald Trump’s wars — both trade and military — beginning to loosen his party’s grip on rural America?

On this week’s episode of , Stephanie Flanders speaks with Bloomberg Congressional Reporter Steven Dennis and Joe Glauber, a former chief economist at the US Department of Agriculture, about the squeeze facing US farmers — traditionally loyal Trump followers. Crop prices have fallen sharply while farmers contend with elevated fertilizer and energy costs tied in part to the US-Israel war with Iran. Trump’s global trade war has added another strain, increasing prices of some imported inputs while retaliatory measures have hurt important US export markets such as China. More recently, soaring diesel prices have landed particularly hard in farming communities, where fuel is a major cost.

While Trump has downplayed the added expense faced by Americans, he has scrambled to cushion some of the blow to this core interest group. Glauber says such government subsidies could account for roughly a third of net-farm income this year, far above the usual share. But the political question is whether those payments are enough to offset voter frustration with higher costs and uncertain markets.

Dennis says Democrats are showing signs of competitiveness in deep-red states like Kansas and Iowa by emphasizing economic issues. If they can make lasting inroads in the heartland, the implications could extend beyond this year’s elections.