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俄罗斯拟在预算缺口背景下推迟国防部薪酬发放Russia Looks to Delay Defense Ministry Pay Amid Budget Gap

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莫斯科国防部大楼。来源:彭博社The Ministry of Defense building in Moscow. Source: Bloomberg

由于政府正为年底预算赤字的大幅扩大做准备,国防部计划首次将12月份的薪酬发放时间推迟至次年1月。

Defense Ministry plans to shift December salary payments into January for the first time, while the government braces for a sharp widening of the budget deficit toward year-end.

根据一项国防部命令草案,自2026年起,每年12月的薪酬将在次年1月发放。此前的规章要求12月的薪酬必须在年底前发放完毕。苏联时期曾实行过类似的做法。

Under a draft Defense Ministry order, pay for each December starting in 2026 would be made the following January. Previous regulations required December payments to be completed before the end of the year. A similar practice was in place in the Soviet Union.

12月的月薪将在1月11日至1月21日之间划拨。该命令将不适用于在乌克兰作战的部队,他们仍将在12月25日前收到12月的薪酬。

Monthly pay for December would be transferred between Jan. 11 and Jan. 21. The order would not apply to troops fighting in Ukraine, who would continue to receive December payments by Dec. 25.

此项变动可以通过将巨额开支推迟到下一个财政周期,来帮助政府管理现金流。12月通常占政府年度开支的很大一部分,而这类开支在战争期间已经激增。

The change could help the government manage cash flows by shifting a large block of spending into the following fiscal period. December typically accounts for an outsized share of annual government expenditure, which has surged during the war.

此前由美国支持的达成谈判解决的努力宣告失败,在俄罗斯对乌克兰战争进入第五年之际,莫斯科控制预算赤字的计划因冲突的又一次升级而受到破坏。

In the fifth year of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Moscow’s plans to rein in the budget deficit have been undermined by another escalation in the conflict, after the failure of earlier US-backed efforts to reach a negotiated settlement.

目前预计今年的政府开支将比最初计划超出约10%,达到48.5万亿卢布(合6020亿美元)。全年赤字预计将从9月份的约2.2%扩大至7.3万亿卢布,即国内生产总值的3.2%。

Government spending this year is now expected to exceed the original plan by about 10%, reaching 48.5 trillion rubles ($602 billion). The full-year deficit is projected to widen to 7.3 trillion rubles, or 3.2% of gross domestic product, from about 2.2% in September.

这一超支反映了更沉重的战争相关开支。俄罗斯最新的预算计划还表明,未来数年军费开支将居高不下,这暗示总统弗拉基米尔·普京正在为一场持久对抗做准备。

The overshoot reflects heavier war-related spending. Russia’s latest budget plans also point to elevated military outlays for years ahead, suggesting President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a drawn-out confrontation.

官员们预计,在明年预计达到创纪录的17.1万亿卢布之后,军费开支在2028年和2029年将分别微降至16.6万亿卢布和16.3万亿卢布。

Officials expect military expenditures to ease only slightly, to 16.6 trillion rubles in 2028 and 16.3 trillion rubles in 2029, after an anticipated record of 17.1 trillion rubles next year.

根据预算草案的说明文件,在未来三年中,人员薪酬将占国家国防总开支的9%至10.4%之间。

Payments to personnel will account for between 9% and 10.4% of total national defense expenditure over the next three years, according to an explanatory note accompanying the draft budget.

9月份,普京将俄罗斯武装力量的编制人数增至2,441,630人,其中包括1,550,500名军事人员。自2022年以来,授权的现役军人数量已增加了五十多万。

In September, Putin increased the authorized strength of Russia’s armed forces to 2,441,630, including 1,550,500 military personnel. The authorized number of service members has risen by more than half a million since 2022.

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