随着美国中期选举临近，美国企业界正为华盛顿权力平衡可能发生的转变做好准备。
As the US midterm elections approach, Corporate America is bracing for a potential shift in the balance of power in Washington.
分析师和策略师表示，如果民主党表现强劲，清洁能源、住房和医疗保健股票可能受益，而人工智能、数据中心和国防类股票可能面临立法者更严格的审查。
In case of a strong Democratic showing, analysts and strategists say clean energy, housing and healthcare stocks could benefit, while AI, data center and defense names may draw greater scrutiny from lawmakers.
根据全球最大预测市场 Polymarket 的数据，民主党大获全胜的几率为 72%，共和党守住参议院且民主党赢得众议院的几率为 23%。
The odds of a Democratic sweep stood at 72%, according to Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, while that of the Republican Party holding on to the Senate and the Democratic Party winning the House of Representatives stood at 23%.
共和党同时保住参众两院的几率仅为 6%，而路透社/益普索民调显示，在选民对生活成本和与伊朗的战争感到担忧之际，特朗普总统的支持率降至职业生涯最低点。
The chances of Republicans retaining the Senate and the House are a poor 6%, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed President Donald Trump's approval ratings at a career low amid voter concerns over the cost of living and the war with Iran.
即使出现国会分裂的局面，也会让民主党在调查和拨款方面拥有更多控制权，但仍须克服特朗普可能行使的任何否决权。投资者正密切关注以下板块：分析师表示，民主党表现强劲可能会强化市场预期，即联邦政府对清洁能源开发的支持将保持不变，从而利好 First Solar (FSLR.O)、住宅太阳能安装商 Sunrun (RUN.O)、逆变器制造商 Enphase Energy (ENPH.O) 以及清洁能源开发商 NextEra Energy (NEE.N) 等公司。
Even a divided Congress would give Democrats more control over investigations and funding, but it would still have to overcome any veto from Trump. Investors are closely watching these sectors: A strong Democratic showing could reinforce expectations that federal support for clean-energy development will remain in place, analysts said, benefiting companies such as solar maker First Solar (FSLR.O), residential solar installer Sunrun (RUN.O), inverter maker Enphase Energy (ENPH.O) and clean-power developer NextEra Energy (NEE.N).
民主党控制的国会于 2022 年通过了《通胀削减法案》，投入数千亿美元用于气候和能源安全措施，包括扩大可再生能源、核能和电动汽车的税收抵免。
The Democratic-controlled Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, devoting hundreds of billions to climate and energy-security measures, including expanded tax credits for renewable energy, nuclear power and EVs.
券商 UBS 认为，在政府分裂的情况下，两党有空间通过立法加快能源和基础设施审批，并预期核能将获得两党支持。
In case of a divided government, brokerage UBS sees room for bipartisan legislation to speed up energy and infrastructure approvals and expects nuclear power to get backing from both sides.
民主党计划审查特朗普政府放宽排放标准的举措，并可能利用《国会审查法案》推翻那些使燃油卡车和 SUV 更容易销售的法规。
Democrats plan to scrutinize the Trump administration's efforts to roll back emissions rules and could use the Congressional Review Act to overturn regulations that make it easier to sell gas-powered trucks and SUVs.
福特（F.N）、通用汽车（GM.N）和Stellantis（STLAM.MI）等汽车制造商已缩减电动汽车计划并游说放宽规则，可能面临压力。
Automakers Ford (F.N), General Motors (GM.N) and Stellantis (STLAM.MI), which have scaled back EV plans and lobbied for looser rules, could face pressure.
瑞银表示，特朗普政府将继续实施国会6月底通过的《21世纪住房之路法案》，以增加可负担独户住房的供应。
UBS said the Trump administration would continue to implement the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, which Congress passed in late June, to increase the availability of affordable single-family homes.
瑞银表示，如果民主党赢得两院，他们可能增加可负担性措施，包括对大型机构房东的限制，但这些措施仍将面临特朗普的否决。
If Democrats take both chambers, they could add affordability measures, including restrictions on large institutional landlords, though those would still face Trump's veto, UBS said.
费城住房指数（.HGX）今年以来已下跌近5%，因为更高利率和抵押贷款利率的前景给该行业带来压力。
The PHLX Housing Index (.HGX) has slipped close to 5% so far this year as the prospect of higher interest and mortgage rates weighs on the sector.
分析人士预计，民主党多数席位将带来对人工智能的更严格审查，可能给今年已上涨的数据存储和内存股，如美光科技（MU.O）、闪迪（SNDK.O）和希捷（STX.O），带来压力。
Analysts expect a Democratic majority to bring greater scrutiny of AI, potentially pressuring data-storage and memory names such as Micron Technology (MU.O), Sandisk (SNDK.O) and Seagate (STX.O), which have rallied this year.
人工智能和数据中心支出放缓也可能给半导体设备制造商（AMAT.O）、（LRCX.O）、（KLAC.O）、电力供应商（CEG.O）、（VST.N）和数据中心建设商（PWR.N）、（VRT.N）带来压力。
A slowdown in AI and data-center spending could also weigh on semiconductor-equipment makers (AMAT.O), (LRCX.O), (KLAC.O), power providers (CEG.O), (VST.N) and data-center builders (PWR.N), (VRT.N).
民主党多数席位更有可能使用传票权力，迫使科技高管在宣誓下作证或提交与有害人工智能代理行为相关的记录。
A Democratic majority would be more likely to use subpoena powers to compel tech executives to testify under oath or hand over records related to harmful AI-agent behavior.
此外，至少10个州的选民可能会考虑可能对数据中心开发施加新限制、许可要求或暂停的投票提案。
Also, voters in at least 10 states could consider ballot measures that could impose new restrictions, permitting requirements or pauses on data-center development.
不过，法国兴业银行表示，人工智能交易可能保持不变，因为民主党不太可能获得足以推翻特朗普否决的多数席位，且关键联邦机构仍由共和党控制。
Still, Societe Generale said the AI trade is likely to remain intact as Democrats are unlikely to secure a majority large enough to override a Trump veto and key federal agencies remain under Republican control.
在民主党全面执政的情景下，医疗保健前景参差不齐，对医疗补助和医疗保险优势计划的更严格审查可能给保险公司带来压力，但TD Cowen认为，重大行业变革和广泛结构性改革的风险有限。
Healthcare faces a mixed outlook under a Democratic sweep, with greater scrutiny of Medicaid and Medicare Advantage plans potentially weighing on insurers, though TD Cowen sees limited risk of major industry changes and broad structural reform.
标普500医疗保健板块（.SPXHC）今年已飙升逾19%至历史高位，涨幅仅次于能源股，因投资者在市场波动中轮动进防御性板块。
The S&P 500 healthcare sector (.SPXHC) has jumped more than 19% this year to record highs, trailing only energy stocks, as investors rotated into defensive sectors amid market volatility.
由民主党控制众议院将增加增税以资助包含更多医疗支出的财政计划的可能性。
A Democratic-controlled House would heighten the possibility of raising taxes to fund a fiscal program that includes more health spending.
“民主党全面胜选可能会为针对医疗成本、消费费用、处方药定价以及被认为导致负担能力担忧的领域的措施创造更大动力，”Principal Asset Management市场策略师Magdalena Ocampo表示。
"A Democratic sweep could create greater momentum behind measures targeting healthcare costs, consumer fees, prescription drug pricing and areas perceived to contribute to affordability concerns," said Magdalena Ocampo, market strategist at Principal Asset Management.
特朗普呼吁1.5万亿美元军费预算，高于已批准的9010亿美元，国防股1月份一度反弹，但此后已吐回大部分涨幅。
Defense stocks rallied in January after Trump called for a $1.5 trillion military budget, above the approved $901 billion, but they have since surrendered most of those gains.
预算表决不太可能在2027年前进行。民主党控制众议院可能使军费开支重回审视之下，分析师指出，国会尚未为大型国防承包商签署的数十亿美元合同拨款，这些合同旨在补充库存。
A budget vote is unlikely before 2027. Democratic control of the House could bring military spending back under scruntiny, with analysts noting Congress has yet to appropriate funds for the multibillion-dollar contracts that big defense contractors signed to replenish stockpiles.
然而，随着伊朗冲突没有结束迹象，雷神技术（RTX.N）和诺斯罗普·格鲁曼（NOC.N）等公司继续看到对武器的强劲需求，推动其积压订单达到创纪录水平。
However, with the Iran conflict showing no sign of ending, companies such as RTX (RTX.N) and Northrop Grumman (NOC.N) continue to see robust demand for arms, pushing their backlogs to record levels.
摩根士丹利分析师表示，民主党获胜带来的额外监管可能会放缓监管放松的步伐，但不太可能使其脱轨。
Morgan Stanley analysts said additional oversight under a Democratic outcome could slow the pace of regulatory easing, but was unlikely to derail it.
民主党控制的国会上一次大修银行监管是通过2010年《多德-弗兰克法案》，该法案收紧了资本规则，设立了消费者监管机构，并实施了新的交易限制。
A Democratic Congress last overhauled bank regulations with the 2010 Dodd-Frank law, which tightened capital rules, created a consumer watchdog and imposed new trading restrictions.
共和党掌握更大权力将支持监管清晰度和政策连续性。Barclays分析师表示，维持有利于并购的条件和持续资本市场活动是大型银行盈利的重要驱动力。
A stronger GOP hand would support regulatory clarity and policy continuity. Keeping conditions favorable for mergers and acquisitions and sustaining capital markets activity are a big earnings driver for large banks, Barclays analysts said.
摩根大通（JPM.N）、花旗集团（C.N）、高盛（GS.N）和富国银行（WFC.N）本月初发布的季度业绩显示，推动上半年盈利创纪录的交易和做市热潮可能正在放缓。
Quarterly results from JPMorgan (JPM.N), Citigroup (C.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Wells Fargo (WFC.N) earlier this month suggested that a dealmaking and trading boom that powered record first-half earnings may be slowing.
分析师表示，大选不太可能对加密货币价格产生重大影响，但可能会影响加密货币立法在国会推进的速度。
Analysts say the election is unlikely to have a significant impact on cryptocurrency prices but will likely influence how quickly crypto legislation moves through Congress.
参议院9月未能推进《清晰法案》，当时民主党人表示反对；分析师称，如果民主党控制参议院，明年要让该加密货币法案重获新生将更加困难。
The Senate failed in September to advance the Clarity Act amid Democratic opposition, and analysts say a Democratic-controlled Senate would make it harder for the crypto bill to be revived next year.
路透社报道，国会民主党人正准备调查与特朗普及其家族有关联的加密货币公司，理由是这些交易存在潜在利益冲突。
Reuters has reported that Democrats in Congress are preparing investigations into crypto companies tied to Trump and his family, arguing the dealings present potential conflicts of interest.
律师告诉路透社，这可能会给加密货币和区块链行业的部分上市公司带来负面新闻和法律风险。
That could generate adverse headlines and legal risks for some publicly listed firms in the crypto and blockchain industries, attorneys told Reuters.