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中期选举中的民主党浪潮可能改变企业谈论气候的方式A Democratic Wave In the Midterms Could Change How Companies Talk About Climate

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过去一年里,我一直在询问企业高管,他们如何预期民主党在中期选举中预期获胜将塑造美国气候和能源议程的未来。令我惊讶的是,他们给出同一个答案的频率如此之高:调查。

For the last year, I’ve been asking corporate executives how they might expect anticipated Democratic victories in the midterm elections to shape the future of the U.S. climate and energy agenda. I was surprised how often they gave the same answer: investigations.

民主党控制国会委员将赋予民主党新的传票权力和新的专职工作人员来开展调查。公司可能被迫上交文件,首席执行官可能被传唤到国会作证,说明他们在一系列问题上是如何应对的。

Democratic control of congressional committees would give Democrats new subpoena power and new dedicated staff to conduct investigations. Companies may be compelled to turn over documents, and CEOs could be called to testify before Congress about how they have approached a range of issues.

过去几年,企业高管主要担心如何站在特朗普总统的“正确”一方。但民主党控制的国会将引入一种竞争性的政治压力——并可能改变公司谈论气候和能源的方式。

Corporate executives have largely worried about staying on the right side of President Trump over the last few years. But a Democratic Congress would introduce a competing political pressure—and potentially change how companies talk about climate and energy.

气候本身可能不是民主党政客在2026年的首要任务,但它将因两个关键原因在华盛顿被提及。第一是燃料和电力成本上涨。国会民主党人将想要调查公司如何应对当前的能源市场状况——这在一定程度上是由人工智能需求的快速增长和伊朗战争引发的——以及他们的行动是否推高了成本。你可以预期这些问题将带有亲清洁能源的倾向。然后是腐败议题,这已成为民主党中期竞选的一个关键主题。民主党将想要调查任何被认为与政府关系密切的公司或行业,包括石油和天然气行业。

Climate may not be a top priority on its own for Democratic politicians in 2026, but it will come up in Washington for two key reasons. The first is rising fuel and power costs. Democrats in Congress will want to probe how companies have responded to current energy market conditions triggered in part by rapid growth in demand for AI and the war in Iran, and whether their actions have raised costs. You can expect those questions to take a pro-clean energy bent. And then there is the corruption discussion, which has emerged as a key theme in Democratic midterm campaigning. Democrats will want to probe any company or industry that is perceived to be close with the administration, including the oil and gas industry.

9月,参议院少数党领袖、来自纽约州的民主党参议员查克·舒默和来自罗德岛州的民主党参议员谢尔登·怀特豪斯发布了一份报告,透露了预期的论证路线。报告重点提及了石油和天然气高管的捐款,并将其与特朗普政府的监管撤销联系起来。最后,报告暗示这些决策导致了消费者价格上涨。

In September, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York, and Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat from Rhode Island, released a report that gives a hint at the expected line of argument. It highlights donations from oil and gas executives and links them to the Trump Administration’s regulatory rollback. And, to conclude, it suggests that those decisions have contributed to higher prices for consumers.

出于可以理解的原因,关于大选如何塑造能源与气候未来的分析往往聚焦于政策结果。有许多领域值得密切关注。选举结果将影响在大选与新任国会议员于1月就职之间这段时间内,通过许可改革法案的努力。议员们还将就去年在特朗普的《一揽子大美法案》下幸免于削减的清洁能源项目的资金水平展开辩论。如果民主党重夺白宫,我们也将看到关于美国可能如何重新思考其应对气候变化路径的更大规模讨论的萌芽。

For understandable reasons, analyses of how the election might shape the future of energy and climate tend to focus on policy outcomes. And there are many areas to follow closely. The results will shape efforts to pass a permitting reform bill in the time between the election and when new members of Congress take office in January. And members will debate funding levels for clean energy programs that survived cuts under Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill last year. We will also see the seeds of bigger discussions about how the U.S. might rethink its approach to climate change if Democrats regain the White House, too.

但更大的故事或许在于一场巨大的民主党胜利浪潮所预示的时代精神转变。调查和国会听证会将迫使企业在公共领域回答它们近来很大程度上一直设法回避的问题。清洁能源在电力系统中扮演什么角色?清洁能源如何影响竞争力?你们如何应对与气候变化相关的风险?

But the bigger story may indeed be the zeitgeist shift that a big Democratic wave would portend. Investigations and congressional testimony will force companies to answer questions in the public sphere that they have largely been able to elide recently. What is the role of clean energy in the power system? How might clean energy affect competitiveness? And how are you approaching risks related to climate change?

在这种新环境下,激励机制发生变化。公用事业公司首席执行官可能会强调可再生能源在降低成本方面的作用。银行可能会强调其如何为清洁能源技术提供融资。而石油天然气公司首席执行官可能会聚焦于他们如何削减甲烷排放。总体而言,高管们拒绝公开谈论他们如何做准备,但在背景交流中,情况很清楚。公司正在聘请律师团队。公关公司正在斟酌措辞,以回应外界关切。首席执行官们正在接触民主党籍国会议员,为自己辩护。

In this new environment, incentives change. A utility CEO might emphasize the role of renewables in bringing down costs. A bank might underscore how it’s financing clean energy technologies. And an oil-and-gas CEO might focus on how they’re cutting methane emissions. In general, executives decline to speak on the record about how they are preparing, but in background conversations the story is clear. Companies are lawyering up. Public relations firms are crafting modulated messages to address concerns. And CEOs are reaching out to Democratic members of Congress to plead their case.

过去几年里,许多企业要么对特朗普小心翼翼,要么公开拥抱他,生怕不这么做会损害利润。由民主党掌控的新一届国会将提醒企业界,特朗普并非唯一需要畏惧的力量。或许,这也会给首席执行官们提供掩护,让他们拥抱一个脚踏实地的气候议程。

For the last several years, many businesses have either tip-toed around Trump or openly embraced him, out of fear that doing otherwise would harm the bottom line. A new Congress with Democrats in charge would remind the corporate world that Trump is not the only force to be feared. And, perhaps, it would give CEOs cover to embrace a grounded climate agenda.

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