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民主党若拿下国会,能源为何将成为主角Why energy will have a starring role if Democrats take Congress

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法槌插图,槌头为石油桶。Illustration of a gavel with an oil barrel as the head.

如果民主党赢得国会参众两院中任何一院的控制权,特朗普总统的能源政策和投资协议可能成为民主党调查的主要目标。

President Trump's energy policies and investment deals could become major targets of Democratic investigations if the party wins control of either chamber of Congress. Why it matters:

为何重要:国会调查可能揭露有关政府与大型公司及外国政府往来的新细节。

Congressional probes could expose new details about the administration's dealings with major companies and foreign governments.

他们在说什么: TD Cowen分析师约翰·米勒通过表示,众议院民主党人可能会采取“霰弹枪式”的做法,“把所有东西都抛出来,然后看看在公众舆论领域哪些能站得住脚”。米勒说,民主党人将寻找那些超越自身权限的机构、涉及政府官员家属的交易,或两者兼有。

What they're saying: House Democrats are likely to take a "shotgun" approach of "throwing everything out there and then seeing what sticks in the realm of popular opinion," TD Cowen analyst John Miller said via • Democrats will be looking for agencies that exceeded their authority, deals involving administration officials' families, or both, Miller said.

大局观:稍微深入探究民主党人最大的潜在监督目标,就会发现能源无处不在。

The big picture: Scratch the surface of Democrats' biggest potential oversight targets, and energy is everywhere.

俄罗斯。特朗普与莫斯科的往来将再次成为焦点——能源层面也是如此。

Russia. Trump's dealings with Moscow will again be front and center — and so will the energy dimension.

  • 两院的民主党人可能会调查特朗普与莫斯科的柴油协议,他们声称该协议违反了2022年禁止进口俄罗斯燃料的法律。

• Democrats in both chambers are likely to investigate Trump's diesel deal with Moscow, which they claim violates a 2022 law barring imports of Russian fuels.

  • 调查还可能延伸到美国银行和港口,议员们已经警告这些机构可能面临国会调查。

• The inquiries could also extend to U.S. banks and ports, which lawmakers have already warned could face congressional investigation.

委内瑞拉。加拿大皇家银行资本市场分析师在一份报告中表示:“我们预计委内瑞拉将成为多项调查的对象。”

Venezuela. "We expect Venezuela to be the subject of a number of inquiries," RBC Capital Markets analysts said in a note.

  • 民主党人已经提出疑问:是否有任何石油公司事先知道推翻尼古拉斯·马杜罗的计划。

• Democrats have already raised questions about whether any oil companies knew about plans to depose Nicolás Maduro.

  • 报告指出,调查还可能审查五角大楼持有母公司北美蓝色能源伙伴公司35%股份的合法性以及交易条款。

• Investigations could also examine the legality of the Pentagon's 35% stake in the corporate parent North American Blue Energy Partners and the terms of the deal, the note states.

伊朗战争。汽油和柴油价格高企为民主党人提供了另一个审视袭击伊朗决定的理由,尤其是如果加油站的痛苦持续存在的话。

The Iran war. High gasoline and diesel prices give Democrats another reason to scrutinize the decision to attack Iran, especially if pain at the pump persists.

  • 参议员谢尔登·怀特豪斯(民主党-罗德岛州)和伊丽莎白·沃伦(民主党-马萨诸塞州)已经就大型石油和天然气公司在冲突期间的利润问题向其施压。

• Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) have already pressed major oil and gas companies about their profits during the conflict.

人工智能和数据中心。对人工智能更广泛、更严格的监督将涉及数据中心的能源使用和电力成本——这已是多位民主党人一直在调查的议题。

AI and data centers. Wider and intense oversight of AI will touch on data centers' energy use and power costs — a topic various Democrats have already been probing.

  • 威尔默黑尔律师事务所国会调查业务联合主席艾丽莎·达库尼亚表示,拥有广泛管辖权的众议院能源和商业委员会将成为数据中心议题的“重心”。

• The House Energy and Commerce Committee, with its expansive jurisdiction, will be the "center of gravity" on data centers, according to Alyssa DaCunha, who co-chairs the congressional investigations practice at the law firm WilmerHale.

  • 监督还可能延伸到特朗普政府在公众反对声中推动在联邦土地上开发数据中心的努力。

• Oversight could also extend to Trump administration efforts to spur data center development on federal lands amid the public backlash.

投资与家族关系。“我们……预计国会将审查政府对几家关键矿产公司的股权持有情况,”加拿大皇家银行分析师写道。

Investments and family ties. "We ... expect congressional reviews of the government's equity stakes in several critical mineral firms," RBC analysts write.

  • 两院的民主党人都对相关交易可能如何惠及特朗普总统和商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克的家族深感兴趣。

• Democrats in both chambers are very interested in how the deals may benefit the families of President Trump and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

海上风电交易。多个委员会准备调查内政部向能源公司付款以放弃海上租赁并将投资转向化石燃料的协议。

Offshore wind deals. Several panels are poised to investigate Interior Department agreements to pay energy companies to relinquish offshore leases and redirect investment into fossil fuels.

  • 有望执掌自然资源委员会的众议员贾里德·哈夫曼(民主党-加利福尼亚州)已释放出相关计划信号。监督内政部的拨款小组委员会首席民主党议员、众议员切莉·平格里(民主党-缅因州)也是如此。

• Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), who would head the Natural Resources Committee, has signaled plans. So has Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine), the top Democrat on the Appropriations panel that oversees Interior.

  • 可能获得权势显赫的司法委员会主席职位的众议员杰米·拉斯金(民主党-马里兰州)称此举非法,而若民主党夺回参议院将有望执掌参议院司法委员会的怀特豪斯也提出了法律方面的担忧。

• Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), who's likely to get the powerful Judiciary Committee gavel, has called it illegal, while Whitehouse, who's in line for Senate Judiciary if Dems retake, has also raised legal concerns.

白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯在一份声明中表示:“民主党人已经在放话,他们再次没有任何改善美国人生活的议程,而是将继续他们长达十年之久的调查特朗普总统的执念。”

"The Democrats are already telegraphing that, once again, they have no agenda to improve the lives of Americans and will instead continue their decade-long obsession with investigating President Trump," White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement.

除用于表态的法案之外,立法的政治空间将很有限,但并非完全不存在。

Political space for legislation beyond messaging bills will be limited but not completely absent.

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