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分析:民主党若在期中选举中获胜究竟承诺要做什么Analysis: What exactly Democrats have pledged to do if they win in the midterms | CNN Politics

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众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯于12月18日在美国国会大厦前与众议院民主党人一同出席记者会并发表讲话。House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries speaks during a press conference with House Democrats in front of US Capitol on December 18.

如果民主党能赢得众议院或参议院其中一院的控制权,他们就能从总统唐纳德·特朗普和共和党手中夺回对华盛顿的部分控制权。

If Democrats can win control of either the House or the Senate, they will have seized some control of Washington back from President Donald Trump and Republicans.

他们将拥有强大的新工具来监督和调查特朗普政府;在政府支出决策中拥有一席之地;还可能获得授权,撤销他所推行的一些变革,或推动他所反对的人工智能监管。

They will have powerful new tools to conduct oversight and investigate Trump’s government; a seat at the table when it comes to government spending; and potentially a mandate to undo some of the changes he has imposed or push for AI regulation he has opposed.

尽管众议院民主党人可能会通过几项党派法案来表明其优先事项,但该党团实际能取得的成就是有限的。保持团结和决心也需要付出努力,尤其是考虑到特朗普受宪法限制无法寻求第三个任期,他可能不愿与民主党合作以维持政府运作。

While House Democrats may pass several partisan bills as a show of their priorities, there are limits to what the caucus would actually be able to accomplish. And maintaining unity and resolve would take work, especially since Trump, barred by the Constitution from seeking a third term, might not be willing to work with Democrats to keep the government functioning.

“结果是,我否决一切,然后民主党人来找我,想达成协议,”特朗普上周谈到与民主党占多数的国会合作的前景时如是说。

“What happens is I veto everything, and then the Democrats come and they want to make a deal,” Trump said last week of the prospect of working with a Democratic-majority Congress.

民主党真正希望成为法律的任何措施,很可能都必须纳入必须通过的立法,例如年度拨款法案。而这至少需要在参议院与共和党谈判,因为预计民主党在该院获得的席位不足以在无需共和党投票的情况下通过法案。

Any measures that the Democrats really want to become law would likely have to be part of must-pass legislation, such as the annual appropriations bills. And that would take negotiating with Republicans, at least in the Senate, since the Democrats are not expected to gain enough seats in that chamber to approve bills without GOP votes.

以下是民主党赢得众议院或参议院多数后可能获得的一些权力,以及他们能利用这些权力做些什么。

Here’s a look at some of the power Democrats could gain with a House or Senate majority, and what they would be able to do with it.

人们在得克萨斯州埃尔帕索的马蒂·罗宾斯娱乐中心排队参加中期选举提前投票,摄于周一。Evelyn Hockstein/路透社People wait in line to vote early in the midterm elections, at the Marty Robbins Recreation Center in El Paso, Texas, on Monday. Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

正是负担能力危机和通胀让选民背弃了总统乔·拜登,而最终可能也正是通胀和负担能力问题让选民背弃特朗普。民主党承诺重新聚焦负担能力问题,但在特朗普担任总统期间,他们可能做不了什么。

It was the affordability crisis and inflation that turned voters against President Joe Biden, and it may end up being inflation and affordability that turn voters against Trump. Democrats are promising a new focus on affordability, but there may be little they can do while Trump is president.

他们几乎不可能获得足以推翻其否决的多数席位。这意味着削减特朗普关税或结束他对伊朗的战争的努力都需要共和党的帮助。

There’s little chance they could gain the kind of majority that would allow them to overturn his veto. That means effort to pare back Trump’s tariffs or end his war on Iran would require help from Republicans.

众议院民主党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯表示,他的党派正在成立工作组,以探讨如何在五个领域降低物价:住房、医疗、照料服务、天然气与公用事业,以及食品杂货与商品。杰弗里斯列出了三个当务之急:► 结束战争以降低能源价格。

The top Democrat in the House, Hakeem Jeffries, has said his party is creating working groups to explore how to bring down prices in five areas: housing, healthcare, caregiving, gas and utilities, and groceries and goods. Jeffries has cited three immediate goals:

► 撤销共和党税收与开支削减法案中对医疗医疗补助计划(Medicaid)的削减,并延期奥巴马医改(Obamacare)中提高后的保费补贴,以解决医疗成本问题……► 废除特朗普的关税以降低商品成本……但同样,这些事情需要特朗普不太可能给予的支持。

► Ending the war to bring down energy prices.

民主党人的主要权力抓手将在于纳税人金钱的花费,这意味着他们迫使特朗普行事的筹码将是通过以撤回资金相威胁。特朗普将需要国会立法来维持政府运转,尽管在其总统任内,他已经经历过多次旷日持久且不得人心的资金中断。

► Undoing cuts to Medicaid in the Republican tax and spending cuts bill, and renewing Obamacare’s enhanced premium subsidies to address health care costs…► Repeal Trump’s tariffs to bring down the costs of goods…But again, those things would require unlikely buy-in from Trump. Democrats’ main power point would be over the spending of taxpayer dollars, which means their leverage to force Trump to do things would be through the threat of taking away money.

一名男子在得克萨斯州奥斯汀的一家雪佛龙加油站加油,摄于8月初。Brandon Bell/盖蒂图片社A person pumps gas at a Chevron gas station in early August in Austin, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Images
维修工人在10月1日午夜刚过时出现在美国国会大厦,当时因国会未能达成拨款协议,政府关门。Kent Nishimura/盖蒂图片社/资料照片Maintenance workers are seen just after midnight at the US Capitol on October 1, 2025, when the government shut down after Congress failed to reach a funding deal. Kent Nishimura/Getty Images/FILE

共和党人试图通过批准国土安全部的资金来度过他的任期,从而使他的移民政策免受民主党人的干扰。民主党人可能会试图撤销这笔资金,但他们很可能缺乏足够的票数来推翻特朗普的资金否决权,而且他们可能对资金充裕的国土安全部将如何开展业务控制力有限。

Trump will need legislation from Congress in order to keep the government running, although he has already overseen multiple protracted and unpopular lapses in funding during his presidencies. Republicans sought to inoculate his immigration policy from Democrats by approving funding for the Department of Homeland Security to get through his term.

另一个预计会出现的冲突将围绕债务上限展开。共和党人在通过特朗普的《一个巨大而美丽的法案》(One Big Beautiful Bill Act)时将债务上限提高了5万亿美元——没错,这项减税法案给国债增加了大量资金。预计债务上限在2027年将不得不再次提高。

Democrats could try to undo that funding, but they will likely lack votes to override Trump’s veto and they may have little control over how his DHS, flush with funding, goes about its business. Another expected clash will be over the debt ceiling. Republicans raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion when they passed Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act — yes, the tax cuts bill added a lot of money to the national debt.

预计民主党人将利用其对资金的权力来拖延或阻止特朗普在华盛顿特区的项目。特朗普认为这些项目对于美化首都而言是必要的,但民主党人则将其视为面子工程。这或许就是为什么特朗普政府正试图在凯旋门以及他想用纳税人的钱修建的锦标赛级高尔夫球场等事情上迅速采取行动。

It’s expected that the debt ceiling will have to be raised again in 2027. Look for Democrats to use their power over funding to stall or stop Trump’s DC projects, which he argues are necessary to beautify the capital, but which Democrats see as vanity projects. This is probably why Trump’s administration is trying to move quickly on things like the triumphal arch and the championship-level golf course he wants to use taxpayer money to build.

但民主党也必须面对现实:撤销或修改“宏伟美好法案”中的大规模削减措施将耗资巨大,即使在党团内部,这也是一个令人望而生畏的障碍,尤其是在国家债务已突破40万亿美元之际。

But Democrats also would have to deal with the reality that reversing or modifying some of the sweeping cuts in the “big, beautiful bill” will cost a lot of money, a daunting hurdle even for many in the caucus at a time when the national debt has topped $40 trillion.

延续《平价医疗法案》参保者的增强版保费补贴,过去两年一直是民主党的首要任务。去年秋天,他们曾导致政府关门长达创纪录的43天,试图迫使共和党领导层延长这项更慷慨的援助,该援助于2025年底到期。

Continuing the enhanced premium subsidies to Affordable Care Act enrollees has been a top priority for Democrats for the past two years. They shut down the government for a record 43 days last fall in an effort to pressure GOP leaders to extend the more generous assistance, which lapsed at the end of 2025.

增强版补贴的到期导致今年保费支付飙升58%,数百万人因此退保。

The enhanced subsidies’ expiration sent premium payments soaring 58% this year, and several million people have dropped their coverage.

但仅成本一项就令人望而却步——根据国会预算办公室的测算,永久延长补贴在十年内可能耗资3500亿美元。

But the cost alone would be daunting — a permanent extension could cost $350 billion over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

至于撤销共和党“宏伟美好法案”中的历史性医疗补助削减,民主党必须决定以法案中的哪些具体措施为目标。首个联邦工作要求预计将导致最大规模的参保流失,但要取消这项定于1月1日在大多数州生效的强制规定,难度极大。民主党可能会寻求推迟或缓和法律和法规中的某些条款,例如与自我证明、医疗虚弱和提供者税相关的条款。

As for reversing the historic Medicaid cuts in the GOP’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Democrats would have to decide which of the multiple measures to target. The first-ever federal work requirement is expected to lead to the largest loss of coverage, but it would be a big lift to remove the mandate, which is set to kick in on January 1 in most states. Democrats might seek to delay or soften some of the provisions in the law and regulations, such as those related to self-attestation, medical frailty and provider taxes.

这并不意味着民主党会坐视医疗补助削减生效。预计他们将积极监督相关条款的实施情况,并宣传其对参保人及其他美国人、医院和州政府等方面的影响。

That’s not to say that Democrats would just sit back as the Medicaid cuts take effect. They are expected to actively monitor the rollout of the provisions and publicize their impact on enrollees and other Americans, hospitals, and states, among others.

他们也很可能会推动特朗普政府公布更多关于其与药企达成的“最惠国”协议的细节。特朗普希望将这些协议写入法律,但关于协议细节以及它们是否真正降低了患者成本,仍存在许多疑问。

It’s also likely that they would push the Trump administration for more details on its “Most Favored Nation” deals with drugmakers. Trump would like them codified into law, but there are a lot of questions about the details of the agreements and whether they have actually driven down costs for patients.

尽管多位进步派民主党候选人在竞选途中推动“全民医保”,但不要指望党团会议在即将到来的国会中推进将医保扩展至更多美国人的议程。

While several progressive Democratic candidates have pushed for Medicare for All on the campaign trail, don’t expect the caucus to move forward on an expansion of Medicare to more Americans in the coming Congress.

左起:埃里克·特朗普、贾里德·库什纳、伊万卡·特朗普和小唐纳德·特朗普在1月20日总统唐纳德·特朗普在美国国会大厦圆形大厅的就职典礼上鼓掌。Kevin Lamarque/Pool/法新社/盖蒂图片社Left to right: Eric Trump, Jared Kushner, Ivanka Trump and Donald Trump, Jr. applaud during the inauguration of President Donald Trump in the Rotunda of the US Capitol on January 20, 2025. Kevin Lamarque/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

监督很可能是民主党接管众议院或参议院任何一方后最直接、最显眼的后果之一。掌握多数席位意味着拥有举行听证会和传唤证人的权力。

Oversight is likely to be one of the most immediate and visible consequences of any Democratic takeover of either the House or the Senate. With the majority comes the power to call hearings and subpoena witnesses.

预计民主党将首先对埃隆·马斯克发起调查。关于他在特朗普的支持下发起的所谓“政府效率部”,仍有许多问题悬而未决。授予马斯克旗下公司的合同也可能受到审查。

Expect Democrats to launch inquiries into Elon Musk, for starters. Many questions remain about the so-called Department of Government Efficiency he launched with Trump’s blessing. Contracts awarded to Musk’s companies could also be scrutinized.

特朗普试图实际上关闭由国会设立的机构——如美国国际开发署、消费者金融保护局和教育部——的举措,将很可能首次接受议员的实质性审视。

Trump’s efforts to effectively shut down agencies created by Congress like USAID, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Department of Education will likely get their first real scrutiny by lawmakers.

特朗普子女在其父执政期间谋利的行为也将如此。在本应监管加密货币之际,特朗普已从加密货币中获利超过10亿美元。

So will the actions of Trump’s children to make money during their father’s presidency. Trump has made more than $1 billion on crypto at a time when he could be overseeing its regulation.

他最具争议的政策,如对伊朗开战、大规模驱逐移民和关税,将被置于显微镜下审视。

His most controversial policies, like the Iran war, mass deportation and tariffs, will be put under the microscope.

国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯、商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克、内政部长道格·伯古姆、国土安全部长马克韦恩·穆林和司法部长托德·布兰奇等内阁成员,也将不得不在日程中腾出更多时间参加公开听证会,其所在机构将面临国会委员会更严格的审查。

Cabinet members like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin and Attorney General Todd Blanche will also need to make more time on their calendars for public hearings and their agencies will face more scrutiny from congressional committees.

结束这场战争将获得两党支持,但迫使特朗普放弃该计划将十分复杂。战争权力法案表面上要求国会对长期的军事行动予以批准,但特朗普已经找到了绕过这些条款的方法。此外,推翻特朗普的 veto 需要67票——这意味着需要得到共和党人的协助。在选举之后、新议员于1月就职之前的跛脚鸭时期,共和党人将面临巨大的压力,须通过一项大规模的战争拨款法案。

There will be bipartisan support for ending the war, but forcing Trump to abandon the project will be complicated. The War Powers Act seemingly requires congressional approval for prolonged military action, but Trump has found ways around those provisions. Plus, it would take 67 votes — which would mean help from Republicans — to override Trump’s veto. Republicans will be under immense pressure to pass a massive war funding bill in the lame duck period after the election but before new lawmakers take office in January.

在美国和以色列的袭击后,伊朗德黑兰的沙赫兰油库大火燃烧,摄于3月8日。Hassan Ghaedi/Anadolu/盖蒂图片社Fires rage at the Shahran oil depot after US and Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, on March 8. Hassan Ghaedi/Anadolu via Getty Images

但五角大楼的拨款问题,以及能否利用支出法案来控制战争政策,将成为一个重大问题。如果这场战争继续不得人心,来自国会和公众的压力将使特朗普难以继续忽视。

But the question of Pentagon funding and whether spending bills can be used to control war policy will become a major issue. If the war continues to be unpopular, pressure from Congress and the public will be hard for Trump to continue to ignore.

为了削弱共和党人对食品券的历史性削减,预计民主党人将把矛头对准《一个美丽宏伟法案》中的一项条款,该条款要求各州在支付错误率较高的情况下承担一部分福利成本。目前,联邦政府承担全部费用,但对于许多州来说,这种情况将在明年10月改变。

In an effort to blunt the Republicans’ historic cuts to food stamps, Democrats are expected to target a provision of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that will require states to shoulder a portion of the benefit costs if they have high rates of payment errors. Currently, the federal government covers the entire tab, but that will change next October for many states.

“La Colaborativa”组织的工作人员在马萨诸塞州切尔西向补充营养援助计划(SNAP)受益人分发新鲜食品,摄于11月13日。Joseph Prezioso/法新社/盖蒂图片社Workers for La Colaborativa hands out fresh food to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients in Chelsea, Massachusetts, on November 13. Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images

作为农业法案的一部分,民主党人此前一直在争取将这一举措推迟两年。参议院农业委员会已经通过了一项推迟一年的决议,但其中包含了对错误率最高的州提高惩罚率的内容,这是民主党人所反对的。目前尚不清楚农业法案是否会在本届国会12月底任期结束前成为法律。

Democrats have already been pushing for a two-year delay to this measure as part of the Farm Bill. The Senate Agriculture Committee has passed a one-year delay but included an increase in the penalty rate for states with the highest error rate, which Democrats oppose. It’s unclear whether the Farm Bill will become law before this Congress’ term ends at the end of December.

据食品研究与行动中心称,错误率条款促使一些州收紧了申请和续签流程,并增加了更多的纸质材料要求。自特朗普于2025年7月将该法案签署成为法律以来,这已导致超过550万人失去福利。

The error rate provision has prompted some states to tighten their application and renewal processes and to add more paperwork requirements. That has contributed to more than 5.5 million people losing benefits since Trump signed the bill into law in July 2025, according to the Food Research & Action Center.

尽管如此,在许多州资金并不充裕的情况下,该举措明年可能会大幅削减各州预算。这可能会促使各州采取更激烈的行动,从而导致更多人失去保险覆盖。

Still, the measure could take a big bite out of state budgets next year at a time when many aren’t flush with funds. That could prompt states to take even more drastic actions, which could lead to more coverage losses.

美国教育委员会政府关系高级副总裁乔恩·范史密斯表示,民主党人将寻求在自身与共和党人之间形成鲜明对比,后者减少了研究生和家长可获得的联邦贷款额度,并让许多借款人的学生贷款还款计划变得不再那么优厚。

Democrats will seek to draw a contrast between themselves and Republicans, who reduced the amount of federal loans graduate students and parents can take out and made student loan repayment plans less generous for many borrowers, said Jon Fansmith, senior vice president for government relations at the American Council on Education.

这可能包括迫使国会共和党人进行艰难的投票以维持更严格的规则,或者要求特朗普否决该一揽子法案。

That might include forcing congressional Republicans to take tough votes to keep the stricter rules or requiring Trump to veto the package.

与此同时,他们可能会试图解决教育部的一项争议性规定,该规定对护士、医师助理、物理治疗师及某些其他医疗专业人员施加了比医生更低的贷款额度限制。鉴于美国医疗专业人员短缺,修改该规定可能会获得两党支持。

Meanwhile, they may try to address a controversial Department of Education rule that subjects nurses, physician assistants, physical therapists and certain other healthcare professionals to lower loan limits than doctors. There may be bipartisan support to change that rule, considering the shortage of healthcare professionals in the US.

毕业生在毕业典礼上的背影。iStockphoto/盖蒂图片社Back view of graduates during commencement iStockphoto/Getty Images

民主党人还可能就特朗普政府旨在解散教育部并将其职责转移至其他机构的努力举行监督听证会。他们可能会调查这些举措是在帮助还是在损害学生及其教育。

Democrats could also hold oversight hearings on the Trump administration’s efforts to dismantle the Department of Education and shift its responsibilities to other agencies. They would likely look into whether these moves are helping or hurting students and their educations.

不要指望民主党人在明年会推进任何严肃的举措,来应对社会保障和医疗保险信托基金迫在眉睫的破产危机,这些基金预计将在20世纪30年代初耗尽。预计在临近最后期限之前,两党都不会着手解决这个复杂而敏感的问题。

Don’t expect Democrats to advance any serious measures in the next year to address the looming insolvency of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds, which are projected to be drained in the early 2030s. Neither party is expected to tackle this complex and sensitive issue until closer to the deadline.

民主党可能会提出旨在加强这些项目财政健康的法案,以明确他们的修复方案将包括什么。他们普遍支持提高社会保障工资税的收入门槛,以便让更多高收入者的薪金纳入征税范围。一些人还将扩大福利,例如使年度生活成本调整更加慷慨,或提高最低月度付款额。

Democrats may float bills that seek to shore up the programs’ fiscal health to make it clear what their fixes would entail. They generally support lifting the income threshold on Social Security payroll taxes that would subject more of higher earners’ pay to the levy. Some would also expand benefits, such as making the annual cost-of-living adjustment more generous or increasing the minimum monthly payment.

社会保障受托人周二发布了该计划财务状况的年度报告。NoDerog/iStock Unreleased/盖蒂图片社Social Security's trustees released their annual report on the program's financial health on Tuesday. NoDerog/iStock Unreleased/Getty Images

解决医疗保险的财务问题将更加复杂。民主党支持扩大福利,例如增加牙科、视力和听力保障。他们也研究过为项目节省资金的方法,例如限制对医疗保险优势计划保险公司的报销——尽管并非所有这些措施都有助于医疗保险A部分信托基金。

Addressing Medicare’s financial problems will be more complicated. Democrats have supported expanding benefits, such as adding dental, vision and hearing coverage. They have also looked at ways to save the program money, such as rein in reimbursements for Medicare Advantage insurers — though not all of those would help the Medicare Part A trust fund.

杰弗里斯今年与特朗普的女婿贾里德·库什纳会面,讨论双方可能合作的领域,因此受到一些民主党人的审查。两人讨论了住房和刑事司法改革。住房尤其可能是民主党和共和党进行谈判的一个领域。

Jeffries came under some scrutiny from Democrats when he met this year with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner about areas where the two sides could work together. The two talked about housing and criminal justice reform. Housing in particular could be an area where Democrats and Republicans negotiate.

特朗普本人也与纽约民主党市长佐赫兰·马姆达尼讨论过住房和基础设施项目。在他的第一个任期内,特朗普的主要两党成就是通过《第一步法案》,这一努力在选民在特朗普第一个任期的中期选举中将众议院控制权交还给民主党后的几个月里,将民主党和共和党聚集在一起。

Trump himself has also talked with Democratic New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani about housing and infrastructure projects. During his first term, Trump’s major bipartisan achievement was passing the First Step Act, an effort that brought together Democrats and Republicans in the months after voters gave control of the House back to Democrats during Trump’s first term midterm election.

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