随着中期选举临近，气候危机似乎并非大多数选民最关心的问题。在最近的一项民调中，选民告诉盖洛普，在11个议题中，经济、医疗保健和伊朗战争是他们在本次选举季最关心的问题。
With the midterms approaching, the climate crisis doesn’t seem to be top of mind for most voters. In a recent poll, voters told Gallup that, among 11 issues, the economy, health care, and the war in Iran are the top of their concerns when it comes to this election season.
但这并不意味着气候问题不在选票之上。中期选举到来之际，美国在特朗普政府执政的头两年经历了一系列气候政策倒退，包括退出《巴黎协定》、撤销具有里程碑意义的危害认定，以及出租公共土地用于石油和天然气钻探。由于民主党人明显更可能将气候行动视为优先事项，气候运动中的许多人抱有希望：如果民主党人夺回国会部分领导权，这可能被证明对帮助防止进一步的政策倒退至关重要。
That doesn’t mean climate isn’t on the ballot. The midterms come as the U.S. has faced a slew of climate rollbacks under the first two years of the Trump Administration, including withdrawing from the Paris Agreement, rolling back the landmark endangerment finding, and leasing public lands for oil and gas drilling. With Democrats being significantly more likely to view climate action as a priority, many in the climate movement are hopeful that if the Democrats take back some leadership in Congress, as it could prove essential in helping to prevent further rollbacks.
“一个新政府可以止血，”纽约大学瓦格纳公共服务学院助理教授马尔科姆·阿拉奥斯说，他的研究聚焦于气候政策的政治。“新一届国会或新一届参议院无法逆转（许多气候政策倒退），但他们可以调查（这些政策）为何被废除，并且可以阻止此类事情在未来发生。”众议院全部435个席位将于11月3日（周二）决出，另有35个参议院席位进行改选。
“A new government could stop the bleeding,” says Malcolm Araos, assistant professor at the Wagner School of Public Service at New York University, whose work focuses on the politics of climate policy. “A new Congress, or new Senate can't reverse [many of the climate rollbacks], but they could investigate why [they were] repealed, and they could stop things like that from happening in the future.”All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be determined on Tuesday, Nov. 3, while 35 Senate seats are up for election.
民主党人需要净增四个席位才能控制参议院。为何地方选举在本届中期选举中至关重要无论中期选举结果如何，在特朗普执政下联邦层面出台气候政策的可能性极低，因此大多数环保倡导者将目光投向了州级竞选。密歇根大学环境政策与规划助理教授杰弗里·亨德森表示，这是因为州级选举仍为地方气候行动留有空间——尤其是如果民主党能实现“三权合一”，赢得州长职位并控制州议会两院多数席位的话。
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate. Why local elections matter these midterms With a low likelihood of federal climate policy under Trump, regardless of the outcome of the midterms, state races are where most environmental advocates are looking. That’s because state-level elections still leave open the potential for local climate action—especially if Democrats can manage a “trifecta” and win the governor’s mansion and a majority in both chambers, says Geoffrey Henderson, assistant professor of environmental policy and planning at the University of Michigan.
“近期历史表明，当民主党在州层面实现‘三权合一’时，往往会创造通过具有变革性气候政策的机会，”他说。“州级竞选的重要性常被低估，因为像密歇根这样的州目前并非民主党‘三权合一’，但可能重新转向这一局面……这能真正释放重大政策变革的潜力。”自特朗普总统上任以来，包括加利福尼亚、弗吉尼亚和科罗拉多在内的多个州，尽管联邦政府在倒退，仍推进了气候政策。
“We've seen in recent history that when we have Democratic trifectas at the state level, that lends itself to an opportunity to pass pretty transformative climate policies,” he says. “It's often underrated how important state level races are, because there are states like Michigan that are not currently Democratic trifectas, but that could shift back in that direction…and that can really unlock major policy change.”Since President Trump took office, several states, including California, Virginia, and Colorado have pushed forward climate policies despite federal rollbacks.
中期选举中值得关注的气候投票议题多个州的选票上也列有气候相关议题。在科罗拉多州，第82号修正案将让选民决定是否赋予购买和出售天然气的宪法权利——批评人士称，若获通过，该措施可能通过推动对化石燃料的依赖，对该州的气候政策构成挑战。
Climate ballot measures to watch in the midterm elections A number of climate measures are also on the ballot in several states. In Colorado, Amendment 82 will have voters deciding on the constitutional right to buy and sell natural gas—a measure that critics say, if passed, could challenge climate policies in the state by promoting fossil fuel reliance.
另一方面，在密歇根州，一项投票提案旨在限制公用事业公司影响政治竞选。（密歇根州的公用事业公司此前曾游说反对社区太阳能项目的扩张。）与此同时，俄勒冈州尤金市的选民将被要求决定是否对大型企业零售商征税，以资助气候韧性项目。（该提案仿照邻近城市波特兰市于2018年通过的一项类似计划。）亨德森表示，所有这些都是风向标案例。“这些投票提案在一定程度上是在检验各方将如何应对州一级的气候政策。”伊朗战争和数据中心担忧如何影响中期选举中的气候政策？
On the other hand, in Michigan, a ballot measure hopes to limit utilities from influencing political campaigns. (Michigan utility companies have previously lobbied against community solar expansion.) Voters in Eugene, Ore., meanwhile, will be asked to decide whether to tax large corporate retailers to fund climate resilience projects. (The measure is modeled after a similar program passed in neighboring Portland in 2018.) These all serve as bellwether cases, says Henderson. “These ballot measures are in some ways testing theories of how each side is going to approach state level climate policy.”How could the Iran war and data center concerns in the midterms impact climate policy?
选民关心的两个问题——伊朗战争和数据中心建设——也可能成为推动气候友好型政策（如可再生能源投资）的契机。“能源价格真正变得非常昂贵的这些危机时刻，可能会导致向可再生能源的转型，”阿拉奥斯说。随着战争暴露出化石燃料的脆弱性，世界各地的许多社区开始转向可再生能源，以获得更大的能源安全。
Two issues of concern for voters—the war in Iran and data center construction—could also prove an opportunity for climate-friendly policies like renewable energy investments. “These moments of crisis when energy is really really expensive [can] lead to these switches to renewable energy,” says Araos. As the war laid bare the precarity of fossil fuels, many communities around the world began turning to renewable energy for greater energy security.
包括加利福尼亚州、堪萨斯州和俄亥俄州在内的10个州的选民将决定是否在当地社区遏制数据中心的开发，这场斗争引起了气候倡导者的共鸣。“数据中心引发了基层的跨党派反对，气候团体与这种反对高度一致，因为数据中心是主要的能源使用者，在许多情况下它们也是主要的用水户，”亨德森说。“我认为这确实既是一个气候问题，也是一个当地土地使用问题，一个成本和水资源可用性的问题，这里有一个机会让气候倡导者成为更广泛联盟的一部分。”
Voters in 10 states, including California, Kansas, and Ohio, will decide whether to curb data center development in local communities, a fight that’s been resonating with climate advocates. “Data centers have drawn a grassroots bipartisan opposition, and climate groups are very much aligned with that opposition because data centers are major energy users, and in many cases they're major water users,” says Henderson. “I think it is really a climate issue as well as local land use issue, an issue of costs and water availability, and there's an opportunity here for climate advocates to to be a part of a broader coalition.”