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中期选举选民担忧气候问题,候选人却对此视而不见Midterm Voters Are Worried About Climate, but Their Candidates Are Ignoring It

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2018年选举日,弗吉尼亚州洛顿阴雨绵绵。安德鲁·卡瓦列罗-雷诺兹/法新社/盖蒂图片社A rainy 2018 Election Day in Lorton, Virginia. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty

大多数美国人对气候危机感到不安或警觉,无论是红州还是蓝州,都想知道政治领袖将如何解决这一问题。但在美国各地的中期选举竞选中,候选人对这一诉求的回应几乎保持沉默。

Most Americans feel unease or alarm about the climate crisis and, in both red and blue states, want to know how political leaders are going to fix it. But in midterm election campaigns across the US, candidates have responded to this desire with near silence.

今年,美国人民经历了创纪录的炎热夏季,以及因国家对伊朗的攻击导致化石燃料供应失衡而带来的额外能源和抵押贷款支出,平均每户约增加2000美元。

People in the US have this year endured a record hot summer as well as soaring costs, equating to roughly $2,000 per household, in extra energy and mortgage payments, due to the country’s dependence on a fossil fuel supply scrambled by Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran.

然而,气候危机的加剧以及转向更清洁、波动性更小的能源形式的紧迫性,在距离中期选举仅剩三周的竞选道路上几乎完全缺席。即便是在过去支持绿色政策的民主党人中,2026年也出现了广泛的气候沉默。

Yet the unfolding climate crisis, and the imperative to transition to cleaner, less volatile forms of energy, has been starkly absent on campaign trails before the midterms in three weeks’ time. Even among previously pro-green Democrats, 2026 has seen a widespread climate omertà.

“看,我不打算为《绿色新政》辩护,”密歇根州的民主党参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在八月告诉福克斯新闻,此前他曾主张实现100%可再生能源。乔恩·奥索夫正试图在佐治亚州保住其参议院席位,他已放弃提及环境问题,转而聚焦于伊朗战争和通胀。与此同时,另一位领先的民主党参议员希望者詹姆斯·塔拉里科此前曾将石油和天然气比作“不会长久”的1980年代磁带,但在本次竞选中却采取了截然不同的立场。

“Look, I’m not going to defend the Green New Deal,” Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic US Senate candidate in Michigan, told Fox News in August, after previously campaigning for 100 percent renewable energy. Jon Ossoff, seeking to retain his Senate seat in Georgia, has ditched mentions of the environment in favor of focusing on the Iran war and inflation. Meanwhile, James Talarico, another leading Democratic Senate hope who previously compared oil and gas to 1980s cassette tapes that are “not gonna last,” has struck a very different tone in this campaign.

“我支持我们的石油和天然气行业,”塔拉里科上个月表示,他正力争在德克萨斯州实现数十年来民主党首次胜利。“我有家人曾在该行业工作。我在德克萨斯州上公立学校,这些学校的经费来自石油和天然气行业。”在将决定参议院控制权的八个摇摆州——阿拉斯加、佐治亚州、缅因州、爱荷华州、密歇根州、北卡罗来纳州、俄亥俄州和德克萨斯州——的所有民主党和共和党候选人中,除了埃尔-赛义德和塔拉里科之外,没有人在其竞选网站上提及“气候”一词。

“I support our oil and gas industry,” Talarico, aiming for a first Democratic win in Texas in decades, said last month. “I had family members who worked in the industry. I went to public schools here in Texas funded by the oil and gas industry.”Among all Democratic and Republican candidates in eight battleground states that will determine control of the Senate—Alaska, Georgia, Maine, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas—none mention “climate” on their campaign websites other than El-Sayed and Talarico.

然而,这种所谓的“气候沉默”实际上与选民真正想要的东西脱节,民意调查显示。上个月的一项大型调查发现,在这八个摇摆州,希望政治家花更多时间谈论气候危机的选民人数是希望听到更少气候话题的选民人数的三倍,且每个州都有压倒性多数表示,他们更倾向于支持优先考虑向清洁能源转型的候选人。

This so-called “climate hushing,” however, is disconnected from what voters actually want, polling suggests. Three times as many voters in these eight swing states want politicians to spend more time talking about the climate crisis than those who want to hear less about it, a large survey from last month found, with thumping majorities in each state saying they are more likely to vote for a candidate who prioritizes a transition to clean energy.

“气候沉默者完全错了——选民想听到更多关于气候变化的内容,而不是更少,他们会奖励那些在气候问题上表现强势的政治家,”环境选民项目(Environmental Voter Project)执行主任纳撒尼尔·斯蒂内特(Nathaniel Stinnett)说,该项目进行了此次民意调查。“政治家应该始终根据选区调整他们的信息,但说谈论气候变化会让你失去选票纯属虚构。”

“The climate hushers are dead wrong—voters want to hear more about climate change, not less, and they will reward politicians who are strong climate leaders,” said Nathaniel Stinnett, executive director of the Environmental Voter Project, which conducted the poll. “Politicians should always tailor their message to their district but it’s pure fiction to say that talking about climate change will lose you votes.”

“事实上,即使是在红州的独立选民中,谈论气候变化也是巨大的赢票点——他们以四比一的比例支持相当激进的气候行动,”斯蒂内特补充道。“有一种观念认为气候已经成为一个禁忌词,不应该被提及。这完全是错的。”中期选举候选人可能为了选举前景而贬低或忽视气候行动,但数据表明,美国选民中的主流立场是关注气候变化并支持尽快摆脱化石燃料。尽管政治和媒体圈提及此类联系的兴趣在减少,但越来越多的美国人开始将他们的生活成本上升与化石燃料和气候驱动的灾难联系起来。

“In fact, it’s a huge vote-winner, even with independents in red states who favor fairly aggressive climate action by a four-to-one margin,” Stinnett added. “There’s this idea that climate has become a curse word and you shouldn’t say it. That’s just wrong.”Midterm candidates may have disparaged or ignored climate action in search of electability, but the data indicates a mainstream position among US voters is concern about climate change and support for a prompt switch away from fossil fuels. More Americans are starting to link their rising living costs with fossil fuels and climate-driven disasters, too, despite a dwindling interest in political and media circles to mention such connections.

“规范已经发生了变化,但许多政治家似乎仍停留在20世纪90年代的世界里,那时清洁能源和气候变化被视为只有环保主义者才关注的激进、边缘议题,”耶鲁大学气候传播专家安东尼·莱瑟罗威茨(Anthony Leiserowitz)说。

“The norm has shifted, yet so many politicians seem stuck in a 1990s world where clean energy and climate change are radical, fringe things that only environmentalists think about,” said Anthony Leiserowitz, an expert in climate communication at Yale University.

“许多政客采用的这种气候沉默策略,并不是对选民所处位置的合乎逻辑的回应,”他补充道。耶鲁大学自身的民意调查发现,尽管特朗普称气候科学“为骗局”,并且他在选举中取得成功,但多数美国人仍对全球变暖感到担忧。即便是在主要产油产气州也是如此:上个月发布的环境选民项目民意调查显示,得克萨斯州54%的选民表示他们更倾向于支持亲可再生能源的候选人,而只有19%表示他们更不可能这样做;得克萨斯州更多选民对太阳能和风能持有利态度,而非石油。

“This climate-hushing strategy, which has been adopted by many politicians, is not a logical response to where voters are,” he added. Yale’s own polling has found a majority of Americans remain worried about global heating despite the electoral success of Donald Trump, who has called climate science “a hoax.”This is the case even in major oil and gas producing states: in the Environmental Voter Project polling released last month, 54 percent of voters in Texas said they’d be more likely to vote for a pro-renewables candidate, compared with 19 percent who said they’d be less likely, with more Texans more favorable of solar and wind energy than oil.

尽管如此,共和党人仍试图将塔拉利科描绘成一个致力于关闭石油和天然气行业的生态极端分子。陷入丑闻的共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿称其对手为“豆腐塔拉利科”,并称其为化石燃料行业的敌人。

Despite this, Republicans have sought to paint Talarico as an eco-extremist bent on shutting down the oil and gas industry, with Ken Paxton, the scandal-plagued GOP candidate, calling his opponent “Tofu Talarico” and an enemy of the fossil fuel sector.

“在得克萨斯州,他说:‘我是纯素食者[注:原文拼写错误],我是纯素食者。’他是纯素食者,意思就是他喜欢生菜,”特朗普本月在一次集会上谈到塔拉利科时说,总统把“vegan”这个词念错了。(塔拉利科其实不是纯素食者。)“现在他参加每一个能参加的烧烤活动。吃完牛排后他立刻就呕吐了。到处都是呕吐物。”在阿拉斯加,对可再生能源的支持甚至更强烈,63%的选民表示他们会支持一个将清洁能源转型置于优先位置的竞选活动。

“In Texas, he talks about: ‘I’m a vaygan [sic], I’m a vaygan.’ He’s a vaygan meaning he likes lettuce,” Trump said about Talarico at a rally this month, with the president mis-pronouncing the word “vegan.” (Talarico is not a vegan.) “And now he goes to every barbecue available. He then throws up immediately after eating the steak. Throwing up all over the place.”In Alaska, there is even stronger support for renewables, with 63 percent of voters saying they’d back a campaign that prioritizes the transition to clean energy.

阿拉斯加的民主党参议员候选人玛丽·佩尔托拉曾以“鱼、家庭、自由”为竞选口号,她主张恢复清洁能源税收抵免,但同时也要求在州内炼制更多石油,并推动批准阿拉斯加北极地区一个大型石油项目的审批。

Mary Peltola, the Democratic US Senate candidate in Alaska who has run on a tagline of “fish, family, freedom,” has called for the return of tax credits for clean energy but also demands more oil be refined in the state and has pushed for the approval of a large oil project in the Alaskan Arctic.

“提高阿拉斯加的能源产量对于解决能源价格危机至关重要。玛丽将积极支持所有可行的解决方案——包括增加石油和天然气的产量,以及恢复那些被丹·沙利文削减的太阳能、风能和水力发电项目的税收优惠,”佩尔托拉的发言人说道。她指的是她的共和党对手——丹·沙利文曾与其他共和党议员一起投票,废除了乔·拜登执政时期制定的促进可再生能源发展的法规。

“Increasing Alaska energy production is critical to addressing the affordability crisis, and Mary will aggressively advocate for every solution on the table—including increased oil and gas production, as well as restoring tax credits for solar, wind and hydropower projects that were cut by Dan Sullivan,” said a Peltola spokesperson, referencing her Republican opponent, who voted with other GOP lawmakers to gut Joe Biden-era legislation to boost renewables.

特朗普政府致力于取消对温室气体排放的任何限制,并大力支持化石燃料产业,认为气候变化问题已经完全被忽视了。内政部长道格·伯格姆上周表示:“如今人们很少再提到‘气候变化’这个词了,因为推动这一议题的力量已经被削弱了。”

The Trump administration, which has moved to eliminate any limits on greenhouse gas pollution while bolstering the fossil fuel industry, considers the climate issue to be in full retreat. “You don’t hear the word ‘climate change’ as much as you did two years ago, because the legs have been knocked out from under that movement,” Doug Burgum, the interior secretary, claimed last week.

过去一年中,媒体对气候危机的报道大幅减少;随着通货膨胀的加剧,以及对伊朗战争和美国民主状况的担忧上升,气候问题在选民的优先事项清单上也逐渐退居次要位置。由于资金有限且选民的注意力难以长时间集中,候选人们发现关注这些热门话题更为明智,而非全球变暖问题。

Media mentions of the climate crisis have dropped in the past year and the issue has slipped down the list of voters’ stated priorities as inflation has taken its toll and alarm over the Iran war and the state of US democracy has surged. Candidates faced with limited cash and fractured voter attention spans have found it expedient to focus on these headline topics, rather than global heating.

不同政党对气候危机的看法仍然存在显著差异:民主党人仍然普遍非常关注这一问题,而共和党人则更倾向于认为这是一个微不足道甚至根本不存在的问题。因此,许多在特朗普曾获胜的州参选的民主党人选择回避任何与气候相关的议题;不过也有一些民主党人打破了这一策略。佛罗里达州的安吉·尼克松就是一个例外——她在那里参加了一场竞争激烈的参议院选举,而该州近年来已成为共和党的据点。

安吉·尼克松表示:“选民确实关心气候问题,只是有些人并不了解气候变化如何影响保险等日常开支,这实在令人遗憾。”

Attitudes towards the climate crisis also continue to differ sharply by party affiliation, with Democrats still overwhelmingly the most concerned about the issue and Republicans far more likely to see it as a trivial or even non-existent problem. This has spurred many Democrats running in states previously won by Trump to bury any mention of climate, although some have bucked this strategy. “Voters are concerned about the climate. Sometimes people just don’t understand how it impacts the cost of things like insurance, which is unfortunate,” said Angie Nixon, a Democrat running a surprisingly competitive Senate race in Florida, which has become a Republican stronghold in recent years.

尼克松与两党其他大多数候选人不同,她在竞选期间屡次提及其所在州面临的气候危机脆弱性。“未来几十年,佛罗里达的大部分地区将被淹没,我对此感到担忧,”她说。“我希望我的孩子们还能看到这个世界。年轻人真的很在乎气候变化,因为他们知道这会真正影响到他们。”

Nixon has, unlike most other candidates from both parties, repeatedly mentioned her state’s vulnerability to the climate crisis during her campaign. “A lot of Florida will be under water in the next few decades and I’m worried about that,” she said. “I want the world to be around for my kids. Young people really care about climate change because they know it will really affect them.”

民主党参议员兼气候倡导者谢尔登·怀特豪斯认为,民主党长期以来在气候危机上的信息一直是“软弱的”,因为他们只是把民调显示的最紧迫议题原封不动地回馈给选民。他坚持认为,民主党应当像共和党在更小众议题上所做的那样,主动提升并利用气候危机作为武器,例如对跨性别者参与体育运动的争论。

Democrats have long had a “weak” message on the climate crisis because they simply repeat back to voters what polls tell them the most pressing issues are, the Democratic senator and climate advocate Sheldon Whitehouse has argued. His party should instead actively raise and weaponize the climate crisis, Whitehouse insists, much like how Republicans do for far more niche topics, such as trans people playing sports.

“这是一个有反派的故事——贪婪的化石燃料公司正在毁灭地球,却把账单留给美国人,”怀特豪斯说。“失望的选民渴望看到政客真正为他们而战,而气候斗争正提供了一个向他们展示我们在行动的真实机会。”

“This is a story with villains—the greedy fossil fuel companies wrecking the planet and sticking Americans with the bill for the damage,” Whitehouse said. “Frustrated voters are hungry to see politicians really fighting for them, and the climate fight presents a real opportunity to show them that we are.”

然而,对于那些因极端天气事件——如风暴、洪水和野火——而生活被颠覆的美国人群体来说,几乎没有证据表明有人在为他们争取,以遏制加剧此类灾难的气温上升。根据一项估计,过去两年中约有三分之一的美国人属于此类人群。

But for the growing cohort of Americans who have had their lives upended by extreme events such as storms, floods, and wildfires—by one estimate, this includes about a third of all people in the US over the previous two years—there is scant evidence of a fight being waged on their behalf to stem the rising temperatures that worsen such calamities.

上周在德克萨斯州克尔维尔举行的灾难幸存者会议上,几位去年被致命山洪冲刷的地区居民表达了对政客们对他们困境置若罔闻的愤怒——那场山洪导致136人死亡,其中包括28名在河畔基督教女子营地的女孩。

At a meeting of disaster survivors in Kerrville, Texas, last week, several people who endured deadly flash floods that swept through the region last year—killing 136 people, including 28 of whom were at a riverside Christian camp for girls—expressed frustration that politicians have tuned out of their plight.

“我认为很多政客根本不在乎这些事情,他们根本不愿意为此采取任何行动,”18岁的乔治亚·毕晓普说道。她的挚友费利西蒂·贾蒙在洪水中不幸遇难。“他们看到了这些灾难的后果,也知道我们一直在大声呼吁人们采取行动;但他们似乎只是认为:‘这不过是天气变化罢了,这就是生活的现实。’”目前,正在发展的厄尔尼诺气候现象已经成为了有记录以来最强烈的厄尔尼诺事件之一,未来几个月内它将进一步加剧美国某些地区的极端高温和洪水风险。

“I think that a lot of politicians couldn’t be bothered, they couldn’t be bothered by it,” said Georgia Bishop, an 18-year-old whose best friend, Felicity Jarmon, died in the floods. “They see it, they know it, they’ve heard us scream to the rooftops about it. But it just seems to be: ‘Well, this is weather, this is life.’”A developing El Niño climate event, already one of the strongest ever recorded, is set to further accelerate extreme heat and flooding risk in parts of the US in the coming months.

毕晓普表示,她甚至不惊讶在7月份看到德克萨斯州下雪。她认为,政界对这一气候危机的漠视令人愤怒。来自八个关键战场州(阿拉斯加、乔治亚、缅因、爱荷华、密歇根、北卡罗来纳、俄亥俄和德克萨斯)的共和党和民主党参议院候选人都被联系,要求他们就自己对气候危机的立场(或说是他们的漠不关心)发表评论。

Bishop said at this point she wouldn’t be surprised to see a snowstorm in Texas in July. The political indifference to this is, she added, “infuriating.”The Republican and Democratic Senate candidates from the key eight battleground states—Alaska, Georgia, Maine, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas—were all contacted for comment about their stance, or lack of it, on the climate crisis.

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