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中期选举让福克斯新闻陷入进退两难The midterms have Fox News between a rock and a hard place

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2024年7月18日,在密尔沃基的费哲论坛球馆,共和党全国代表大会期间可见福克斯新闻的标识。Fox News signage during the Republican National Convention is seen at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee on July 18, 2024.

大选之夜被称为“有线电视界的超级碗”,各大网络纷纷推出倒计时钟和一个接一个的分析小组。然而,福克斯新闻因与唐纳德·特朗普的共生关系,可能会经历一场“赛后宿醉”。近期收视率下降表明,对特朗普感到厌倦的观众和心灰意冷的粉丝似乎不太愿意观看他们的“主队”输球。福克斯新闻掌门人鲁伯特·默多克现年95岁,向来务实,既经营心爱的网络,又向受众提供红肉(注:指迎合保守派口味的内容)。

Election Night has been called “the Super Bowl for cable news,” as networks deploy countdown clocks and panel after panel of analysts. Because of its symbiotic relationship with Donald Trump, however, Fox News could experience a postgame hangover. Recent rating declines indicate that Trump-weary viewers and disaffected fans appear less inclined to watch their “team” lose. Fox News patriarch Rupert Murdoch, now 95, has always been a pragmatist when it comes to his beloved network and serving red meat to its audience.

然而,随着特朗普的表演在数百万投他票的人眼中也显得乏味,该网络可能正步入一个危险的新阶段。

Yet as Trump’s act appears to have grown tired, even in the eyes of millions who voted for him, the network may be entering a perilous new phase.

尽管福克斯在2020年大选后曾短暂与特朗普保持距离,但当“让美国再次伟大”忠诚者调频离开、引发收视率滑坡和内部恐慌、担心不满的特朗普支持者会涌向新闻最大等其他右翼网络时,福克斯又慌忙投入了特朗普怀抱。

Although Fox briefly distanced itself from Trump immediately after the 2020 election, the network scrambled back into his arms when MAGA loyalists tuned out, triggering a ratings slump and an internal panic that disgruntled Trump supporters would gravitate to other right-wing networks like Newsmax.

结果证明,新闻最大的攻势昙花一现,但福克斯人才们推广特朗普2020年大选谎言,后来导致与多米尼昂投票系统达成近8亿美元的和解。尽管如此,自那以后,这家有线新闻领头羊总体上一直寻求留在特朗普的好心中。这种青�的报道毫不奇怪地包括福克斯校友进出政府的游行。国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯和哥伦比亚特区美国检察官珍妮·皮罗是特朗普任命的二十多位人物中,而前白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在离职后迅速与福克斯签约成为撰稿人。

As it turned out, Newsmax’s inroads were short-lived, though Fox talents’ promotion of Trump’s 2020 election lies later led to a nearly $800 million settlement with Dominion Voting Systems. Nevertheless, since then the cable news leader has generally sought to stay in Trump’s good graces. The favorable coverage, unsurprisingly, has included the parade of Fox alums in and out of the administration. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and U.S. Attorney for D.C. Jeanine Pirro are among more than two dozen personalities tapped by Trump, while former White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt quickly inked a contributor deal with Fox after exiting the job.

正如其他许多人所发现的那样,对于特朗普而言,任何低于绝对忠诚的表现都是不够的,随着他的民调数字下滑,他已对福克斯新闻发起猛烈抨击。随着总统的“赢”比他声称的要少,支持者似乎正在移开目光。福克斯新闻10月的日均收视人数较去年同期大幅下降27%,创下近三年来最差月度表现。其黄金时段评论节目也遭遇了相应的低迷。相比之下,随着大选临近,MSNBC和CNN的收视率均较去年同期有所上升,尽管福克斯新闻仍以舒适的优势领先这两家网络。

As many others have discovered, though, anything less than total fealty is insufficient for Trump, who has lashed out at Fox as his poll numbers have waned. With the president doing less “winning” than he claims, supporters seem to be averting their gaze. Fox’s daily audience has dropped a stark 27% over last year in October, its worst monthly performance in almost three years. Its primetime opinion shows have suffered a corresponding slump. By contrast, both MS NOW and CNN posted increases over last year as the election nears, though Fox still leads both networks by a comfortable margin.

福克斯新闻面临的特定困境,正值有线电视新闻行业面临更广泛挑战之际。媒体消费模式正在改变,数百万家庭已“切断有线电视”,减少了有线电视的分发覆盖面。CNN正在新东家天空之舞的领导下,为变革和裁员做准备;MSNBC则在适应更名以及与NBC新闻分家后的生活。

Fox’s particular hurdles come amid broader challenges across the cable news sector. Media consumption patterns are changing, and millions of homes have cut the cord, reducing cable’s distribution reach. CNN is bracing for changes and cuts under new owner Skydance, and MS NOW is adjusting to a name change and life apart from NBC News.

在依赖特朗普推动观众参与度(无论正面还是负面)超过十年后,所有有线电视新闻网络都将不得不应对一个新的竞争环境,一旦他离开白宫——尽管他姿态强硬,声称要无视第22条修正案。

After relying on Trump to drive viewer engagement, positive and negative, for more than a decade, all of cable news will have to grapple with a new playing field once he leaves the White House, his posturing about flouting the 22nd Amendment notwithstanding.

诚然,福克斯新闻以前也经历过变革,并设法在共和党和民主党政府执政时期均蓬勃发展。刚刚庆祝成立30周年的该网络,可以说在民主党执政时最为成功——影响力也最大。它在奥巴马执政期间通过将自己定位为反对派的声音而繁荣发展。虽然收视率下滑肯定令人担忧,但相对而言,福克斯新闻起步于一个优势地位。

Granted, Fox has weathered changes before and managed to thrive through Republican and Democratic administrations. Having just celebrated its 30th anniversary, the network has arguably been most successful — and exerted its greatest influence — when Democrats have been in power. It prospered during the Obama years by setting itself up as the voice of the opposition. While sagging ratings are surely worrisome, Fox starts, relatively speaking, from a position of strength.

即便如此,该网络对特朗普的非凡接触——他一边抱怨,一边痴迷于观看福克斯新闻——在美国历史上是独一无二的。福克斯帮助他在2016年总统竞选前确立了政治势力,随后又失去了对其创造物的控制。而与共和党一样,福克斯在失去特朗普对其关键受众群体的掌控后,前景似乎也变得扑朔迷离。

Even so, the network’s extraordinary access to Trump — an obsessive Fox News viewer even as he complains about it — is unique in American history. Fox helped establish him as a political force prior to his 2016 presidential run, before losing control of its creation. And like the Republican Party, Fox’s future seems murkier without Trump’s hold on a key segment of its audience.

这是一段复杂的关系,考虑到不确定的媒体环境,充满风险。除了思考没有特朗普参选的生活,福克斯在Truth Social上每一次深夜关于福克斯“背叛”他的牢骚,都威胁着要削弱该网络与MAGA支持者之间至关重要的联系。

It’s a complicated relationship and, given the uncertain media landscape, fraught with risk. Beyond contemplating life without Trump on the ballot, every late-night Truth Social rant about Fox somehow betraying him threatens to fray the network’s vital tether to the MAGA faithful.

就像那些在1月6日骚乱后谴责特朗普,随后又退缩的保守派人士一样,福克斯和默多克做出了一项商业决定,将网络与特朗普的战车绑在一起。这或许在2021年避免了灾难,但福克斯从来不缺乏适应能力。如果中期选举后观众不再回归,该网络可能面临避免“露易丝与泰尔玛”式结局的困境,即(剧透警告!)两位多年的挚友,在经历风风雨雨后,手牵手一起驶下悬崖。

Like conservatives who denounced Trump after the Jan. 6 riot before retreating, Fox and Murdoch made a business decision to hitch the network to Trump’s wagon. That may have staved off disaster back in 2021, but Fox is nothing if not adaptable. And should viewers not return after the midterms, the network could face trying to avoid a “Thelma and Louise” scenario, where (spoiler alert!) two longtime friends, having stuck together through thick and thin, hold hands as they sail off a cliff.

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