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共和党人应准备好迎接漫长而黑暗的灵魂之夜Republicans should get ready for a long dark night of the soul

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肯·帕克斯顿于2026年10月27日在得克萨斯州拉伯克与总统唐纳德·特朗普一同出席中期选举竞选集会时发表讲话。Ken Paxton speaks during a midterm campaign rally with President Donald Trump on Oct. 27, 2026 in Lubbock, Tx.

在巴拉克·奥巴马2015年的国情咨文中,曾出现这样一个时刻:他说“我不再需要参加竞选了”。现场的共和党人随即报以一阵带有调侃意味的掌声。

There was a moment in Barack Obama’s 2015 State of the Union address when he said, “I have no more campaigns to run.”Republicans in the audience responded to the statement with a cheeky round of applause.

虽然他们绝不会承认,但我认为,现在他们中的许多人对唐纳德·特朗普也抱有同样的如释重负之感。

While they would never admit it, I believe many of them are now feeling that same sense of relief about Donald Trump.

随着总统在长达数小时的集会上自由联想式地发表演讲,赞美男性的臀部,拥抱早已被揭穿的选举谎言,痴迷于舞厅和凯旋门,并要求支持者假装他在选票上,许多共和党人正用“这个时代即将结束”这一认知来安慰自己。

As the president free-associates through hourslong rallies exalting men’s posteriors, embraces long-debunked election lies, obsesses over ballrooms and triumphal archs and tells supporters to pretend he’s on the ballot, many Republicans are consoling themselves with the knowledge that this era will be coming to an end soon.

但尽管特朗普本人可能在两年后离场,他留下了一长串麻烦的共和党提名人,这些人要么输掉了本可赢的选战,要么让原本稳妥的州陷入险境。共和党需要想办法解决这个问题,否则它将比特朗普更长久。

But while Trump himself may go away in two years, he’s leaving behind a long list of troubled Republican nominees who either lost winnable races or put typically safe states at risk. Republicans need to figure out how to solve that problem or it will outlast him.

看看得克萨斯州,共和党已投入至少2.68亿美元,为在参议员选战中陷入困境的州检察长肯·帕克斯顿撑腰,对手是民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科。该席位自2002年以来由参议员约翰·科宁持有,这位坚定的保守派曾多次贬低自己以证明对特朗普的忠诚。这还不够,总统在初选中背书了帕克斯顿。

Look at Texas, where Republicans have pumped at least $268 million into propping up embattled state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Senate race against Democrat James Talarico. The seat had been held since 2002 by Sen. John Cornyn, a stalwart conservative who debased himself several times to prove his loyalty to Trump. It was not enough and the president endorsed Paxton in the primary.

塔拉里科有很大机会成为近40年来首位在得克萨斯州当选的民主党参议员。即使帕克斯顿获胜,也将耗费宝贵资源于其他州,并让共和党参议院党团背上一个为期六年的“慢性偏头痛”,即持续不断的道德问题、丑闻和其他争议。

Talarico has a good shot to become the first Democrat elected senator in Texas in nearly 40 years. Even if Paxton wins, it will have taken valuable resources from other states and saddled the Republican Senate conference with a six-year migraine in the form of continuing ethics problems, scandals and other controversies.

共和党把这种局面的责任归咎于特朗普,这很诱人。但一个运作正常的政党,绝不会让像帕克斯顿这样糟糕的候选人走到这一步。

It’s tempting for Republicans to cast the blame for this state of affairs at Trump’s feet. But a functioning party would not have let a candidate as poor as Paxton get anywhere near this far.

在过去,政党在烟雾弥漫的后屋里自行挑选提名人。这种做法后来让位于更开放的初选制度,但所谓的“隐形初选”依然存在,党魁、大额捐赠者和政治行动委员会会对候选人进行审查。虽然他们不再一定能直接决定提名人,但往往能通过策略运作,防止特别糟糕的选择获得势头。

In the old days, political parties chose the nominees themselves in a smoke-filled backroom. That gave way to a more open primary system, but something called the “invisible primary” still took place as party leaders, major donors and political action committees vetted candidates. While they didn’t necessarily pick the nominee any more, they were often able to strategize enough to keep a particularly poor choice from gaining ground.

接着特朗普出现了。2016年,“隐形初选”的赢家很明显是前佛罗里达州州长杰布·布什,他拥有家族名声、人脉和资金,却最终败给了一位从房地产开发商转型为真人秀明星、且背负多项劣迹的对手。

Then came Trump. In 2016, the winner of the invisible primary was pretty clearly former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who had the name, the connections and the money, but ended up going down in flames to a real estate developer turned reality TV star with multiple marks against him.

从那时起,该党基本放弃了对候选人的传统审查角色,而特朗普支持有问题的候选人,就像赌徒在赛马场追逐损失一样:赫舍尔·沃克、梅赫梅特·奥兹、卡里·莱克、道格·马斯特里安诺、布莱克·马斯特斯、罗伊·摩尔和马克·罗宾逊等人。

Since then, the party has largely abandoned its traditional role of vetting candidates, while Trump has backed troubled candidates like a gambler chasing losses at the track: Herschel Walker, Dr. Mehmet Oz, Kari Lake, Doug Mastriano, Blake Masters, Roy Moore and Mark Robinson, among others.

当特朗普离任时,政治体系不会突然恢复到过去的模式。他训练了共和党初选选民,在选择提名人时无视显而易见的政治丑闻、恶毒言辞和拙劣的竞选运作。即使是资深共和党人,最终也会在初选中不得不与极右翼阴谋论者正面交锋、争取党内最忠诚的选民,结果却损害了自己在大选中的声誉。

When Trump leaves office, the political system is not going to suddenly snap back to the old days. He has trained Republican primary voters to ignore glaring political scandals, vile rhetoric and incompetently run campaigns when choosing nominees. Even seasoned Republicans will end up going head-to-head with far-right conspiracy theorists in courting the party’s most dedicated voters during the primaries, only to damage their own reputation in the general election.

我早已不指望我的党能出现大规模的“幡然悔悟”时刻,从特朗普诱导的昏迷中清醒过来,但如果体面不足以让该党夺回对哪些候选人进入大选的影响力,或许对权力的渴望能做到。

I’ve long given up expecting my party to have a widespread come-to-Jesus moment that snaps it out of its Trump-induced stupor, but if decency isn’t enough to reclaim the party’s influence on which candidates advance to general elections, maybe lust for power is.

如果共和党想要获胜,就必须表现得像个想赢的党。党内元老需要想办法开始对候选人素质实施一些最低标准。他们不必搞什么高调背书。州党部或共和党全国委员会只需公布一些最基本的门槛,规定什么样的候选人配得上选民的时间和考量:比如公布纳税申报表、同意参加辩论、组建一支称职的竞选团队。

If the Republican Party wants to win, it needs to act like it. Party elders need to find a way to start enforcing some minimum standards on candidate quality. They don’t need to do any heavy-handed endorsements, either. The state parties or the Republican National Committee could simply announce some bare-minimum benchmarks for a candidate deserving of voters’ time and consideration: things like releasing tax returns, agreeing to a debate and assembling a capable campaign staff.

值得注意的是,在其竞选的不同阶段,特朗普每一项门槛都未能达标。

Notably, at varying points in his campaigns, Trump failed each of those benchmarks.

归根结底:周二晚间极有可能标志着特朗普对共和党残存力量的控制走向终结的开始。

Here’s the bottom line: In all likelihood, Tuesday night will mark the beginning of the end of Trump’s stranglehold on what’s left of the Republican Party.

如果林肯的党魂还有复苏的希望,那希望寄托在党员们能否长出脊梁、主动出手,将党的残骸从妄图复活特朗普政治幽灵的食腐者手中夺回。共和党灵魂的漫漫长夜才刚刚拉开帷幕。

If there’s any hope of revival for the soul of the party of Lincoln, it exists in the willingness of party members to grow spines and take an active role in wrestling its remains from the scavengers hoping to revive Trump’s political ghost. The long dark night of the Republican soul is just beginning.

想要获得迈克尔·斯蒂尔、西蒙·桑德斯·汤森德和卢克·拉塞特更多发人深省的见解,请收看“周夜谈”,每周一至周五美国东部时间晚上 7 点在 MS NOW 播出。

For more thought-provoking insights from Michael Steele, Symone Sanders Townsend and Luke Russert, watch “The Weeknight” every Monday to Friday at 7 p.m. ET on MS NOW.

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