两位明年不会成为众议院议长的人选。过去十年已清楚表明，在未来几天和几周里，你将从唐纳德·特朗普和共和党那里听到大量关于今年中期选举结果的谎言。他们将声称在明显落败的选举中赢得了最多选票。他们将撒谎称投票反对他们的美国人是通过欺诈手段投票的。在他们控制选举机制的地方，甚至可能超越单纯的口头谎言，试图篡改底层的选票计数。
Two people who will not be speaker of the house next year. The last decade has made clear that you’re going to hear a lot of lies from Donald Trump and the Republicans about the results of this year’s midterm elections over the next few days and weeks. They will claim they won the most votes in elections they clearly lost. They will lie the Americans who voted against them did so fraudulently. In places in which they control the mechanics of elections, they might even go beyond mere verbal lies and attempt to alter the underlying vote counts.
这是一个从根本上讲属于法西斯的政党，蔑视民主本身；一个暴徒般的少数派别，曾试图通过武力推翻选举，在美国国会大厦发动暴力叛乱。为了紧抓权力不放——以及在即将到来的、规模具有历史意义的选举谴责面前抚慰他们破碎的自尊——没有他们不敢撒的谎。
This is a fundamentally fascist party that holds democracy itself in contempt; a thuggish minority faction that attempted to overthrow an election through force in a violent insurrection at the United States capital. There is no lie they will not tell in order to cling to power – and to sooth their own broken egos in the wake of what is shaping up to be an electoral rebuke of historic proportions.
你首先应该知道他们在撒谎，因为撒谎是他们的惯常伎俩。前车之鉴俯拾皆是。他们的主张不能照单全收；如果有什么不同的话，唐纳德·特朗普及其政党断言某事，反而应该成为相信相反情况的理由。
You should know that they are lying, first and foremost, because lying is what they do. There is ample precedent. Their claims cannot be taken at face value; if anything, Donald Trump and his party asserting something should be reason to believe the opposite.
但还有一个确凿迹象表明共和党今年自己都不信那些选举谎言，这个迹象就是他们过去一个月所做的一切字面意义上的事情。
But there is another sure sign Republicans don’t believe their own election lies this year, and that sign is literally everything they have been doing for the past month.
你看，特朗普和共和党将要撒的谎言都基于同一个前提：即大多数美国人在今年的选举中支持他们，而非民主党。现在，问问你自己：共和党的表现像是认为这是真的吗？
See, the lies Trump and the Republicans will tell are all based on the same premise: That most Americans favored them, not Democrats, in this year’s elections. Now, ask yourself: Are Republicans acting like they think that is true?
《Axios》近日报道称，“参议院共和党人正在权衡三项绝地反击式的支出举措，这些在六个月前是不可想象的：向密西西比州注资，并向南卡罗来纳州和堪萨斯州投入更多资金。”除非他们知道选民已强烈倒向对立面，否则共和党不会在大选临近时在这些地方投入资金。
Axios reported recently that “Senate Republicans are weighing three last-ditch spending moves that would have been unimaginable six months ago: a cash infusion for Mississippi and even more money for South Carolina and Kansas.”These are not places Republicans spend money late unless they know the electorate has turned strongly against them.
堪萨斯州上一位赢得参议院选举的民主党人出生于1879年。他在1932年的连任竞选中落败，此后堪萨斯州再也没有向美国参议院输送过一名民主党人。距离一名民主党人在南卡罗来纳州参议院选举中以10个百分点之差落败，已经过去了20年。特朗普解释在选举最后几天前往密西西比州竞选的决定时说，现任共和党参议员“表现不错，但我必须确保……‘我不能冒险。我不能冒险。她没问题。’”
The last Democrat to win a Senate race in Kansas was born in 1879. He lost his re-election campaign in 1932, and Kansas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the United States Senate since. It has been twenty years since a Democrat came with 10 points of winning a Senate race in South Carolina. Explaining his decision to campaign in Mississippi in the final days of the election, Trump said the incumbent Republican Senator is “doing great, but I just got to make sure ... “I can’t take a chance. I can't take a chance. She's got no problem.” Mississippi is not a state in which Republicans have to devote their time and money to “making sure” in anything but a disastrous electoral environment: The last Democrat to win a Senate race in Mississippi was born in 1901. He’s been dead for 31 years, and out of the Senate for 37. Republicans have won the last fifteen regular Senate elections in Mississippi by an average of 65-34.
密西西比州并非共和党人必须投入时间和资金去“确保”胜选的州，除非选举环境灾难性：密西西比州上一位赢得参议院选举的民主党人出生于1901年。他已去世31年，离开参议院37年。共和党在密西西比州最近的十五场常规参议院选举中获胜，平均得票比例为65比34。
This comes just a few weeks after Republicans scrambled to find money for tough Senate races in Alaska and Iowa.
此事发生在共和党人为阿拉斯加和爱荷华州艰难的参议院选举筹措资金仅几周之后。在我有生的半个世纪里，民主党仅在阿拉斯加赢得过一次参议院选举。
A Democrat has won a Senate race in Alaska exactly once in the half-century I have been alive. Elon Musk has personally spent half a billion dollars trying to save Republicans from the wrath of their constituents, much of it in dark red states: Musk has spent at least $168 million on the Texas race alone.
埃隆·马斯克个人花费了5亿美元，试图拯救共和党人免受选民愤怒的报复，其中大部分资金投入了深红州：仅在德克萨斯州的竞选中，马斯克就花费了至少1.68亿美元。德克萨斯州！
Texas!
JD·万斯正前往纽约州上州，试图拯救安东尼·康斯坦蒂诺，这位特朗普的超级粉丝，也是在两年前特朗普以21个百分点优势获胜的选区中举步维艰的共和党候选人。即便以特朗普共和党的标准来看，康斯坦蒂诺也是一个极其荒谬的候选人：当被问及他竞选代表的选区中最大的城市是什么时，康斯坦蒂诺回答说“我不知道，去问格罗克吧”，指的是埃隆·马斯克臭名昭著的种族歧视且经常出错的人工智能聊天机器人：安东尼·康斯坦蒂诺不是一个严肃的人。
JD Vance is heading to upstate New York to try to save Anthony Constantino, the Trump superfan and floundering Republican nominee in a district Donald Trump won by 21 points just two years ago. Constantino is a deeply ridiculous candidate even by the standards of the Trump GOP: When asked recently what is the largest city in the district he is running to represent, Constantino answered “I don’t know, ask Grok,” referring to Elon Musk’s infamously racist and frequently wrong AI chatbot: Anthony Constantino is not a serious person.
即便如此，即使是最不聪明的共和党人，也应该能够在没有美国副总统紧急援助的情况下，赢得特朗普+21的选区。
Still, even the dimmest of Republican bulbs should be able to win a Trump+21 district without emergency assistance from the Vice President of the United States.
特朗普计划在路易斯安那州参议院选举的选举前夕为共和党候选人举行集会，距离特朗普以22个百分点赢得该州仅两年。我可以继续说下去（而且，而且，而且）：唐纳德·特朗普和共和党人正在向美国最红的州和选区投入巨额资金，并计划举行最后的竞选集会。
Trump has planned an election eve rally for the Republican candidate in the Louisiana senate race, just two years after Trump won the state by 22 points. I could go on (and on, and on): Donald Trump and the Republicans are throwing massive amounts of cash and planning last-ditch campaign rallies in the darkest red states and districts in America.
这不是一个相信自己拥有美国人民支持的政党的行为。这是一个吓得要死的政党的行为。一个知道自己在美国人民中备受鄙视的政党，因为它发动了一场无法结束的非法战争，这场战争推高了物价，让人们从街头消失，并将他们未经审判地送往国外酷刑监狱，杀害了敢于反对这些滥用行为的美国人，为个人利益掠夺国库，并给无法无天的亿万富翁疯子们发放了破坏关键政府基础设施的全权许可。
This is not the behavior of a political party that believes it has the support of the American people. This is the behavior of a political party that is scared shitless. A political party that knows it is held in contempt by the American people after it started an illegal war it cannot finish that has driven up prices, disappeared people off the streets and sending them without trial to foreign torture prisons, murdered Americans for daring to speak out against these abuses, plundered the treasury for personal gain, and given unaccountable billionaire maniacs carte blanche to destroy crucial government infrastructure.
这是一个知道美国人民已经转而反对它的政党：“数字介于糟糕透顶和烂透顶之间，”一位为全国多个联邦选举提供建议的共和党高级人士对Axios表示。“现在看起来比2018年还要糟糕。特朗普正朝着2006年布什的水平发展。”当特朗普和共和党人开始告诉你他们是今年选举的真正赢家时，请记住，他们的行为已经出卖了他们。
This is a political party that knows the American people have turned against it: “The numbers are somewhere between shitabulous and craptastic,” a top Republican advising several federal races across the country told Axios. “It looks worse than 2018 now. Trump is heading to Bush 2006 levels.”When Trump and the Republicans start telling you they are the real winners of this years’s elections, remember their actions have already given them away.
本周选举的结果并非悬念已定，尤其是几场关键的参议院选举，胜负难料。但特朗普和共和党在本应稳操胜券的选举中表现出的绝望，清楚表明他们明白美国民众已经转而反对他们，即便在深红州和选区也是如此。这种绝望削弱了共和党人本周可能表达的确定性，即他们才是真正的胜利者。
The outcome of this week’s elections is not a foregone conclusion, and several key senate races in particular could go either way. But the desperation Trump and the GOP have shown about their prospects in races that should be sure things for them make clear that they understand the American people have turned against them, even in deep red states and districts. That desperation undermines the certainty Republicans are likely to express this week that they are the actual victors.
订阅《寻找重力》，获取政府、政治、媒体等内容。我们身处的困境、如何走到这一步，以及一些出路，由贾米森·福瑟提供。邮件已发送！请查看收件箱以完成注册。无垃圾邮件。随时可退订。
Sign up for Finding Gravity Government, politics, media and more. The mess we're in, how we got here, and some ways out, from Jamison Foser. Email sent! Check your inbox to complete your signup. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
感谢阅读。订阅本通讯免费，但制作和发布并非免费。如果您希望支持我的工作，请考虑付费订阅。支持我的工作：升级至付费版发布者：贾米森·福瑟 政治顾问、作家、媒体评论家。
Thanks for reading. Subscribing to this newsletter is free, but producing and publishing it is not. If you’d like to support my work, please consider a paid subscription. Support My Work: Upgrade to Paid Published by: Jamison Foser Political consultant, writer, media critic.
会员讨论 《寻找重力》© 2026 由 Ghost 提供支持
Member discussion Finding Gravity © 2026 Powered by Ghost