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民主党人如何重拾民粹主义政治How Democrats Are Reclaiming the Politics of Populism

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美国得克萨斯州贝克萨县民主党在中期选举临近尾声时,发布了一则引人注目的广告,将当时的新闻片段与1990年安·理查兹演讲的档案影像交替播出。理查兹是孤星州最后一位担任州长的民主党人,也是该党的自由派元老。1990年已是很久以前的事,但理查兹在广告中的出现,将氛围进一步推向更久远的过去。她当时已近六十岁,留着白色蓬发,定型一定需要大量违反环保署规定的发胶,她用民粹主义的措辞发表演讲,在比尔·克林顿第三条道路取得胜利两年前,这种措辞可能已经显得过时。

In the waning days of the midterm election, the Democratic Party of Bexar County, Texas, released an intriguing ad that interspersed contemporaneous news clips with archival footage of a 1990 speech given by Ann Richards, the last Democrat to serve as the governor of the Lone Star State, and its liberal grande dame. 1990 is long ago, but everything about Richards’s presence in the ad casts the mood even further back in time. She was already nearly sixty years old, with a white bouffant that must have required an E.P.A.-defying amount of hairspray to hold in place, and she spoke in populist terms that, two years before the triumph of Bill Clinton’s Third Way, might already have seemed dated.

“我想今天开场先谈谈孩子们,”理查兹说道,声音带着一种帐篷复兴集会的洪亮,“说这就是德克萨斯州未来的意义,我们民主党人相信这个国家和这个州的伟大,我们绝不会让德克萨斯州被卖给出价最高的共和党人。”她的演讲中穿插着现任德克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特的画面,阿博特曾表示希望将该州打造为“人工智能中心”,以及世界首富埃隆·马斯克的画面,马斯克花费近两亿美元资助据称腐败的参议院共和党候选人肯·帕克斯顿。

“I wanted to begin this program today with children,” Richards says, with a kind of revival-tent projection in her voice, “to say that that’s what the future of Texas is all about, and that we Democrats believe in the greatness of this country, and of this state, and we are not about to allow Texas to be sold to the highest-bidding Republican.”Her speech is interspersed with images of the current governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, who had declared that he wanted to make his state the “epicenter of A.I.,” and of Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, who has spent nearly two hundred million dollars bankrolling the allegedly corrupt Republican candidate for Senate, Ken Paxton.

回到1990年,理查兹以既哀婉又雷霆万钧的语气阐述民主党主张:“我们生活和这个州中有些事情比……更重要。”即便在她那个时代,理查兹也是独一无二的。但贝克萨县民主党人抓住了某种要点。在当前选举中,民主党人试图同时做两件事:引入一些新面孔,冲刷掉粘附在该党身上的养老院外衣,尤其是在乔·拜登被迫退出2024年总统选举之后,并改变美国政治辩论的条件。

Back in 1990, Richards made the Democratic case in a tone that is both plaintive and thunderous: “There are things in our lives and in this state that are more important than .”Even in her own time, Richards was inimitable. But the Bexar County Democrats were onto something. In the present election, the Democrats are trying to do two things at once: introduce some fresh faces who might wash away the nursing-home veneer that has clung to the Party, especially in the wake of Joe Biden’s forced exit from the 2024 Presidential election, and change the terms on which American politics are argued.

十多年来,美国政治的核心议题一直是文化战争,红州对蓝州,女权主义对“男性至上主义”。但这个国家的底层变化遵循着不同的维度——它们与技术、金钱以及超级富豪和不平等日益加剧的挑战有关。(俄亥俄州民主党州长候选人埃米·阿克顿的竞选广告结尾脚本写道:“埃米·阿克顿正在开着这辆车竞选,”镜头中候选人站在一辆吉普牧马人旁边。“维韦克·拉马斯瓦米,开着这架飞机,”画面是共和党候选人站在一架私人飞机旁。“这基本上就告诉你了解这两个人所需要知道的一切。”)

For more than a decade, the central subject of American politics has been the culture war, red states versus blue states, feminism versus the manosphere. But the underlying changes in the country have followed a different dimension—they have had to do with technology, money, and the escalating challenges of ultra-wealth and inequality. (The script for a closing ad for Amy Acton, the Democratic nominee for governor of Ohio, says, “Amy Acton is campaigning in this,” over a shot of the candidate next to a Jeep Wrangler. “Vivek Ramaswamy, in this”—news footage of the Republican next to a private jet. “That pretty much tells you what you need to know about these two.”)

得克萨斯州民主党参议院候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科在竞选中常说:“这个国家最大的分歧不是左翼对右翼,而是顶层对底层。”从许多方面来说,民主党今年的基本挑战,就是要让这种分歧成为现实。

James Talarico, the Democratic U.S. Senate candidate in Texas, often says while campaigning, “The biggest divide in this country isn’t left versus right; it’s top versus bottom.”In many ways, the basic Democratic challenge this year is to try to make it so.

这是一个适合稍显民粹的时机。马斯克介入政治以及人工智能超大规模企业通过数据中心进入本来偏僻的美国小镇,使得财富和权力集中问题在今年显得尤为尖锐。更重要的是,唐纳德·特朗普推行的加剧物价上涨这一核心政治难题的政策——关税、伊朗战争——再加上他的金融纠葛和晦暗交易,使他新近面临利用公职谋取私利的指控,或者更简单地说,显得与美国人日常困境脱节。

It is a propitious time for a little bit of populism. The intrusion of Musk into politics and of the A.I. hyperscalers, via data centers, into otherwise out-of-the-way American towns has made the issues of concentrated wealth and power especially poignant this year. Even more significantly, Donald Trump’s pursuit of policies that have exacerbated the central political problem of rising prices—the tariffs, the Iran war—combined with his financial entanglements and shadowy deals, has made him newly vulnerable to charges of using his public office for personal gain or, more simply, of being out of touch with Americans’ daily struggles.

换言之,乔治亚州参议员乔恩·奥索夫(Jon Ossoff)——他曾呼吁通过宪法修正案推翻最高法院的《公民联合案》裁决——就此轻而易举地强硬抨击所谓“投币式”政治体制,表面上指责两党,实则把矛头指向共和党。奥索夫擅长简练有力的表达。他最近在巡回演讲时说,特朗普的政府是“史上最腐败的政府,人人皆知”。

It’s been pretty easy, in other words, for the Georgia senator Jon Ossoff, who has called for a constitutional amendment to reverse the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision, to forcefully denounce a “coin-operated” political system in a way that ostensibly blames both parties but really points the finger at Republicans. Ossoff has a gift for emphatic concision. Trump’s, he said recently on the trail, is “the most corrupt Administration of all time, and everybody knows it.”

在爱荷华州,州审计长、民主党州长候选人罗布·桑德(Rob Sand)则采取了另一种更接地气的民粹主义方式。

In Iowa, Rob Sand, the state auditor and the Democratic candidate for governor, has taken a different, and more down-home, approach to populism.

桑德斯在集会开场时,先请与会者为在场的共和党人鼓掌,接着为无党派人士鼓掌,然后(“为了公平”)为民主党人鼓掌,随后带领人群齐唱《美丽的美国》第一节。“我并不太喜欢政党,”桑德斯几周前在得梅因以西达拉斯县的一次市政厅会议上表示,他最初以无党派身份登记投票,“是因为我有自己的想法。”桑德斯经常引用“绝对的权力导致绝对的腐败”这一说法,指的是一党专政(共和党人已执掌得梅因十年),并借此强调自己作为审计员寻找节省开支的工作,但他在竞选路上提出的基本论点是反对两党制。

Sand begins his rallies by asking attendees to applaud, first, for the Republicans present, then for the independents, and then (“to be fair”) for the Democrats, and then prompts the crowd to sing the first verse of “America the Beautiful.”“I don’t really like political parties,” Sand said a few weeks ago, at a town hall in Dallas County, just west of Des Moines, noting that he first registered to vote as an independent “because I think for myself.”Sand often uses the phrase “absolute power corrupts absolutely,” in reference to one-party rule (Republicans have held Des Moines for a decade) and to draw attention to his work as an auditor, to find savings, but the basic case he makes on the trail is against the two-party system.

“我们能不能停下来,谈谈这有多不符合美国精神?”桑德斯说。“我们有宪法规定的投票权,你的税款在支付选举费用,但除非你事先签署一份文件,声明自己要加入一个私人俱乐部,否则你就不被允许参与。”

“Can we pause for a moment to talk about how un-American that is?”Sand said. “Here we have a constitutional right to vote, and your tax dollars are paying for the election, but you’re not allowed to participate unless you sign a piece of paper saying you’re joining a private club beforehand.”

民主党在一些长达一代人都被排除在外的地方看起来具有竞争力:在得克萨斯州略微领先,该州自1994年以来没有过民主党参议员;在堪萨斯州势均力敌,该党的荒野期可追溯至1932年;甚至在南卡罗来纳州也接近了。他们之所以能做到,是通过反对战争和反对总统对负担能力危机的漠视,但也以一种异常直白的方式,反对腐败。

Democrats look competitive in places where they have been shut out for a generation: slightly ahead in Texas, where there has been no Democratic senator since 1994; about even in Kansas, where the Party’s drought stretches back to 1932; and getting close even in South Carolina. They have done so by running against the war and against the President’s indifference to the affordability crisis, but also, in an unusually straightforward way, against corruption.

一项最近的估计显示,特朗普在第二个任期的第一年净资产增长了22亿美元,而最近一项福克斯新闻民调发现,88%的选民对腐败“极度”或“非常”担忧。尽管特朗普竞选时曾反对一个被操纵的体系,但正如奥索夫在最近一次竞选活动中所说,“他并没有把它弄正。”“他正在为自己重新操纵它。”

One recent estimate suggested Trump’s net worth grew by 2.2 billion dollars during the first year of his second term, and a recent Fox News poll found that eighty-eight per cent of voters were either “extremely” or “very” concerned about corruption. Though Trump had campaigned against a rigged system, as Ossoff put it at a recent campaign event, “he’s not unrigging it. He’s re-rigging it for himself.”There are ironies in the campaign against Washington corruption, which sometimes echo Trump’s own themes.

反腐败运动中存在讽刺之处,有时与特朗普的主题相呼应。南卡罗来纳州参议院民主党候选人、儿科医生安妮·安德鲁斯的一则广告中,她身穿防水连体裤,站在泥泞的沼泽地里,说:“特朗普说得对。最大的沼泽是华盛顿特区。”她认为,“华盛顿内部人士、数据中心开发商,以及多年来一直在宰我们的那些制药和保险公司”对她的共和党对手达琳·格雷厄姆进行了“指名挑选”。

An ad for Annie Andrews, the Democratic pediatrician running for Senate in South Carolina, features her standing in a boggy marsh in waterproof overalls, saying, “Trump was right. The biggest swamp is Washington, D.C.,” and arguing that “Washington insiders, data-center developers, and the same drug and insurance companies that have been ripping us off for years” had “handpicked” her Republican opponent, Darline Graham.

据CNN本周统计,反腐败广告已花费2.75亿美元——大部分由民主党出资,其中大量广告认为政治中的资金过多。阿拉斯加州参议院民主党候选人、前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉本人也因选票舞弊行为受到公众审查,她抨击对手在参议院任期内净资产的增长:“这正是阿拉斯加人厌恶的那种腐败。”每个执政党外的政党都会批评现状,而政党越是处于执政党之外(目前的全国民主党就相当不得势),就越有自由这样做。

According to a CNN tally this week, two hundred and seventy-five million dollars has been spent on anti-corruption ads—most of it by Democrats, and much of it arguing that there is too much money in politics. Mary Peltola, a former Democratic congresswoman running for Senate in Alaska, and herself under public scrutiny for ballot shenanigans, has attacked the growth of her opponent’s net worth during his time in the Senate: “This is exactly the kind of corruption that Alaskans are sick of.”Every out-of-power party criticizes the status quo, and the more out-of-power they are (and the national Democrats right now are quite out of power) the more latitude they have to do so.

但2026年民主党的竞选活动普遍回避了宏大的政策提案或弹劾总统等引人注目的承诺;众议院民主党的“头100天”计划主要集中在废除不受欢迎的特朗普倡议和调查腐败上。这在某种程度上是一种进步。过去十年里,伯尼·桑德斯运动作为民主党内部的一股巨大颠覆力量,其力量部分在于将更广泛的左翼政策方法与民粹主义诉求相结合。

But the campaigns run by Democrats in 2026 have generally steered clear of sweeping policy proposals or eye-catching promises like impeaching the President; the House Democrats’ “First 100 Days” program largely focusses on repealing unpopular Trump initiatives and investigating corruption. This is, in its own way, a development. Part of the power of the Bernie Sanders movement, the great disruptive force inside the Democratic Party during the past decade, was how it coupled a more expansive, left-wing policy approach with populist appeals.

在拜登执政期间,主流民主党人在没有政治民粹主义的情况下尝试了更具变革性的政策目标——由专家制定的左翼经济学。

Under Biden, mainstream Democrats experimented with more transformative policy goals without the political populism—leftist economics by wonks.

如今,像奥索夫和桑德斯这样本身并非局外人的主流民主党人,正在尝试一种近似倒置的做法——反腐败、反内部人士的信息传递,但不采取左翼的政策路线。

Now mainstream Democrats like Ossoff and Sand, themselves hardly outsiders, are trying something like the inverse—anti-corruption and anti-insider messaging without the leftish approach to policy.

这些中期选举很可能是漫长特朗普时代的最后一次选举,这使得该时代的一些模式更加清晰可见。正如世界各国民主国家的情况一样,美国选民普遍不喜欢执政政府,无论其是右翼还是左翼,无论谁在掌舵,公众对大多数机构和权威的不满都只会加深。在美国,特朗普找到了一种利用这些模式的方式,即右翼民粹主义,其边缘化带有文化本土主义色彩。民主党选民在2020年选择乔·拜登时,倾向于捍卫美国机构。

These midterms are likely the final elections of the long Trump era, which puts some of its patterns into relief. As has been the case in democracies around the world, American voters have generally disliked the governments in power, whether right-wing or left-wing, and no matter who is running the show the public dissatisfaction with most institutions and authorities has only deepened. In the United States, Trump found a way to exploit these patterns with a right-wing populism that edged into cultural nativism. Democratic voters, in choosing Joe Biden in 2020, leaned into a defense of American institutions.

这一次,他们正指向另一个方向,即一种更具传统进步色彩的民粹主义,反对腐败和资金集中。对民主党而言,一个有趣的问题是,这种姿态在本轮选举周期之后将如何演变,以及如何转化为政策。不过,就本次选举而言,民主党的语气和其追求的选举地图都带有一种复古感。他们有一位在德克萨斯州参选参议院的神学生,以及一位在堪萨斯州选票上的牧师,两人都有相当大的胜算。

This time, they are pointing in another direction, toward a more traditionally progressive populism opposed to corruption and concentrated money. An interesting question for the Party going forward will be how that posture evolves after this election cycle, and how it makes its way into policy. For this election, though, there is a throwback feel in both the tone of the Democrats and in the electoral map they are pursuing. They have a seminarian running for Senate in Texas and a minister on the ticket in Kansas, and both stand a decent shot.

而且,他们有一个关于这个国家正在发生什么的故事,这一叙事受到旧版民主党的影响,早于克林顿主义带来的变革——即共和党人正在向出价最高者出卖,而生活不仅仅是关于金钱。

And they have a story of what is happening to the country, an account influenced by an older version of the Democratic Party, one that predates the changes that came with Clintonism—that the Republicans are selling out to the highest bidder, and that there is more to life than money.

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