2026年4月16日，北卡罗来纳州巴克斯顿海岸线上，房屋濒临倒塌。
Homes on the verge of collapsing on the shoreline of Buxton, North Carolina, on 16 April 2026.
这场竞选耗资超过5200万美元，已成为美国历史上最昂贵的众议院竞选，但选民对洪水泛滥深感厌倦。在北卡罗来纳州基尔德维尔希尔斯当了一整天提前投票站工作人员后，艾达·哈维尔一边喝咖啡一边思考自己的命运。“我们被困住了，”她总结道。
At more than $52m, the race has become the most expensive in US history, but residents are fed up with flooding Aida Havel mulled her fate over coffee after working the early voting polls all day in Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina“We are trapped,” she concluded. The Dare county commission candidate lives about 50 miles (80km) south, on Hatteras Island on the state’s Outer Banks.
这位戴尔县委员会候选人住在南边约50英里（80公里）处，即该州外滩群岛上的哈特拉斯岛。晚上8点后，她简直就像住在火星上。
After 8pm, she may as well live on Mars.
12号公路又断了。恶劣风暴将碎片冲上路面，这些碎片是气候变化毁坏的海滨别墅留下的残骸，哈维尔说。房屋倒塌是因为保险公司拒绝承担拆除费用，直到房屋被彻底压扁在沙滩上。它们的骸骨困住了活人。
Highway 12 is out. Again. Bad storms wash debris onto the road, the detritus of beach houses ruined by climate change Havel said. Houses collapse because insurers won’t cover demolition until they’re knocked flat into the sand. Their skeletons trap the living.
哈维尔气愤不已。原本45分钟的车程变成了长达四小时的后勤大行动。
Havel fumed. A 45-minute drive has become a four-hour logistical exercise.
“我早上8点排上渡轮队，有一班8点的渡轮，我知道赶不上了，”哈维尔说。“但还有9点半的一班。我也没赶上。我挤上了11点的渡轮，是最后一辆上船的车，他们让我折叠后视镜，硬把我塞了上去。我坐渡轮到了斯塔姆皮波因特，1点05分下船。然后还得开车去曼特奥，那是30分钟的车程。”她租了一个Airbnb住一周，省得再折腾一遍。
“I got in the ferry line at 8am, and there was an 8am ferry, and I knew I wasn’t going to make that one,” Havel said. “But there was a 9.30 ferry. I didn’t make that one. I got on the 11.00 ferry, and I was the very last car on, and they told me I had to fold in my my side mirrors, and they just squeezed me on. I took the ferry over to Stumpy Point, and I got off at 1.05. And then I had to drive to Manteo. It was a 30-minute drive to Manteo.”She rented an Airbnb for the week, rather than bother with it again.
北卡罗来纳海岸被称为“大西洋墓地”，因哈特拉斯角外海沉船无数。共和党人很快可能会把他们的雄心也加入大海的清单。
The North Carolina coast is called the graveyard of the Atlantic, for the thousands of shipwrecks off Cape Hatteras. Republicans may soon add their ambitions to the sea’s tally.
外滩群岛属于北卡罗来纳州第一国会选区，该席位目前由保守派民主党人唐·戴维斯占据。他正与共和党人劳里·巴克霍特陷入胶着对决，而州议会去年重新划分国会选区地图、向该选区塞入更多保守派选民，让这场竞选更加艰难。
The Outer Banks are part of North Carolina’s first congressional district, a seat currently held by conservative Democrat Don Davis. He is locked in a tough race against Republican Laurie Buckhout, made even tougher by the state legislature, which redrew congressional maps in their favor last year and packed more conservative voters into the district.
2026年10月15日提前投票首日，唐·戴维斯在北卡罗来纳州纽伯恩。
Don Davis in New Bern, North Carolina, on the first day of early voting on 15 October.
共和党近期在风灾应对上表现不佳。特朗普政府对飓风“海伦妮”反应平平，正在很大程度上导致共和党即将在北卡罗来纳州第11国会选区——位于西部山区——失利。我们被困住了。
Republicans fare poorly in storms of late. A lackluster response by the Trump administration to Hurricane Helene is contributing mightily to an impending Republican loss in North Carolina’s 11th congressional district in the western mountains. We are trapped.
两年前，斯普鲁斯派恩、伯恩斯维尔和格林芒廷的居民在邦科姆县一个山谷里的屋顶上度过洪水，他们曾听过同样的话。
Residents have heard that line before, from people in Spruce Pine and Burnsville and Green Mountain riding out flooding two years ago on a roof in a Buncombe county holler.
北卡罗来纳海岸遍布海滨度假村和廉价旅游景点。阿什维尔带来的旅游收入更多。但即便如此，道路中断正在扼杀生意，哈维尔说。
The North Carolina coast is a riot of seaside resorts and kitsch tourist spots. Asheville brings in more tourism money. But still. The road outage is killing the business, Havel said.
“我们已经不得不取消两场钓鱼比赛了，”她说。“人们在淡旺季交界期赚到的钱，支撑着他们度过整个冬天。他们现在正损失每一分这样的收入。不仅是餐馆，不仅是商店，还有家政清洁工，你知道吗？我是说，这影响所有人，简直是一场彻底的经济灾难。戴尔县是北卡罗来纳州第四大旅游驱动力……但我们得不到帮助来修路。”
“We’ve already had to cancel two fishing tournaments,” she said. “The money that people make in the shoulder season keeps them going throughout the winter. They’re losing every bit of that revenue right now. Not only the restaurants, not only the shops, the house cleaners, you know? I mean, it’s everybody, it affects everybody and it’s just a complete economic disaster. Dare county is the fourth-highest tourism driver in North Carolina … but we can’t get help to fix the road.”
12号公路虽属州道，但国家公园管理局对海岸线拥有共同管辖权，这条路是至关重要的基础设施。10月22日，联邦应急管理局宣布了一项1.01亿美元的北卡罗来纳救灾方案，其中部分资金将用于拆除外滩群岛上摇摇欲坠的房屋。但海岸线每年向内陆推进超过15英尺（约4.6米），且没有长期规划。
Highway 12 might be a state road, but the National Park Service shares jurisdiction over the seashore and the road is essential infrastructure. On 22 October, Fema announced a $101m package of relief measures for North Carolina, some of which will pay for teetering Outer Banks houses to be demolished. But the shoreline is moving in more than 15ft every year, and there is no long-term plan.
戴尔县通常投票支持共和党。尽管联邦政府对州另一端的灾难漠不关心，该县仍可能投票给共和党。
Dare county usually votes red. It may still vote for Republicans, despite the federal government’s indifference to the disaster on the other side of the state.
“可负担性很重要，但在这里可能不是第一位，”共和党活跃分子克雷格·琼斯在达尔县投票站外发放传单时说。“我们这里两极分化严重，很多共和党人害怕民主党上台后会失去个人自由、税收上升、走向社会主义，”他说。“达尔县倾向于保守、以家庭为中心。这里有很多度假者，但本地人大多是共和党人，倾向保守，喜欢个人自由。”
Affordability matters, “but it may not be No 1 here,” said Craig Jones, a Republican party activist in Dare county as he was handing out flyers outside the county’s polling place. “We are polarized here, so a lot of Republicans are afraid of the Democrats taking over and losing individual freedom, taxes going up, socialism,” he said. “Dare has a tendency to be a conservative, family-oriented place. Get a lot of vacationers here, but the locals tend to be Republican, tend to be conservative, and they like their individual freedom.”
他表示预计巴克豪特将赢得达尔县：“其他县我不清楚……但达尔县，劳里·巴克豪特会赢，你可以放心。”这正是北卡罗来纳州议员今年早些时候重新划分国会选区时的共和党计划。北卡罗来纳州的选民在共和党和民主党之间几乎持平，但其国会代表团中有10名共和党人和4名民主党人。
He said he expects Buckhout to take Dare county: “The other counties, I don’t know. … but for Dare, Laurie Buckhout will win Dare county, and you can take that to the bank.”That was the Republican plan when North Carolina lawmakers redrew congressional districts earlier this year. North Carolina splits its vote almost evenly between Republicans and Democrats. But its congressional delegation has 10 Republicans and four Democrats.
北卡罗来纳州第一国会选区在2024年以一票之差投票支持唐纳德·特朗普。尽管如此，国会中最保守的民主党人戴维斯仍以约6300票的优势击败巴克豪特。
North Carolina’s first congressional district voted for Donald Trump by one point in 2024. Davis – the most conservative Democrat left in Congress – prevailed nonetheless, beating Buckhout by about 6,300 votes.
在这场复赛中，北卡罗来纳州以共和党为主的立法机构将可靠的民主党县如威尔逊的黑人选民重新划分，换成了弗吉尼亚边界和海岸线的农村共和党选民。一个原本仅以一票优势倾向共和党的选区，变成了大约以10票优势倾向共和党的选区。至少，这是当初的计划。
For the rematch, North Carolina’s Republican-dominated legislature spooned out Black voters in reliably Democratic counties like Wilson and replaced them with rural Republicans along the Virginia border and the coast. A district that favored Republicans by one point became one that favored them by about 10 points. At least, that was the plan.
“他们把那个地区划得太大了，”泰勒尔县委员罗伯特·汤普森在上周县法院投票后说。汤普森投票支持巴克豪特。他把竞争的胶着归因于共和党候选人被迫进行竞选的地理范围。马里恩（北卡罗来纳州）将于10月17日开始提前现场投票。
“Well, they made that area that’s too big,” said Robert Thompson, a Tyrrell county commissioner, after voting at the county courthouse last week. Thompson voted for Buckhout. He attributes the closeness of the contest to the geography a Republican candidate is forced to campaign in. Early in-person voting begins in Marion, North Carolina, on 17 October.
“二十个县。占全州的四分之一，”汤普森说。“我不确定这是不是个好主意……这片区域太大了。我想这也是原因之一。我的意思是，二十个县要去到，真的很难。”截至目前，竞选支出已达5200万美元，州第一国会选区的竞争已成为美国历史上最昂贵的选举。金钱可以购买广告，可以支付竞选工作人员的费用，却买不到时间。
“Twenty counties. It’s a quarter of the state,” Thompson said. “I’m not sure if that was a good idea or not … It is a big area to cover. I think that’s part of it. I mean, just–20 counties is hard to get to, you know.”At $52m in campaign spending and counting, the contest for the state’s first congressional district has become the most expensive race in American history. Money can buy advertising. It can pay for campaign staff. It cannot buy time.
民主党选民往往集中在城市地区，因而容易接触。共和党选民则多为农村且分散。第一国会选区的重新划界加剧了共和党人的结构性劣势。
Democratic voters tend to be concentrated in urban areas, which make them easy to reach. Republican voters tend to be rural and spread out. The redistricting of the first congressional district exacerbates this structural disadvantage for Republicans.
即使道路没有被冲毁，像布克斯顿这样的地方也需要整整一天的行程来安排。新伯恩的地区机场每天大约只有四个航班。哈特拉斯的最后一班渡轮通常在下午6点15分离港，尽管紧急情况已促使其延后发船。哈维尔说，戴维斯今年已经去过那里五次。
Even when the road isn’t washed out, a place like Buxton is an all-day trip to plan. The regional airport in New Bern runs about four flights a day. The last Hatteras ferry usually leaves at 6.15pm, though the emergency has prompted later runs. Davis has been out there five times this year, Havel said.
“当我们被划入戴维斯议员的选区时，我想，这可能是我见过的唯一一次划区带来的好事，”她说。她说，她之前的议员格雷格·墨菲在她居住的这十一年里一次也没有见过哈特拉斯岛的居民：“一次也没有。房子倒塌时也没有，市政厅会议也没有，什么都没有。”邻居们在北卡罗来纳州布克斯顿观看一座房屋被搬离海岸，向内陆更远处移动，时间是4月16日。
“When we got gerrymandered into Congressman Davis’s district, I thought, this is the first good thing that’s ever come out of gerrymandering that I’ve ever seen,” she said. Her previous congressman, Greg Murphy, had not once met residents of Hatteras Island in the 11 years she has lived there, she said: “Not a single time. Not when the houses fell in, not to have a town hall meeting. Nothing.”Neighbors watch as a home is moved further inland from the shore in Buxton, North Carolina, on 16 April.
她说，这些岛屿是未建制领土——没有市长或市议会成员为居民发声。哈特拉斯岛和奥克拉科克岛是哈特拉斯角国家海岸的一部分，这是联邦保护区，理应有联邦介入，尽管12号公路是一条州道，她补充说：“劳里·巴克豪特曾来过一次，但据我所知她只去了罗丹斯，没走得更远。”
The islands are unincorporated territory – there are no mayors or city council members advocating for their residents, she said. Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island are part of the Cape Hatteras national seashore, a federal preserve that merits federal involvement, even though Highway 12 is a state road, she said. “Laurie Buckhout came once, but she only came to Rodanthe, to my knowledge, and didn’t go any further,” she added.
巴克的竞选团队未回应多次置评请求。戴维斯的竞选团队工作人员表示，戴维斯也无法置评。
Buckhout’s campaign did not respond to repeated requests for comment. Davis was also unavailable for comment, his campaign staff said.
从海岸沿64号州际公路前往落基山镇的途中，黑水柏树沼泽逐渐让位于大片白色棉田。沿途那些破旧烟草仓锈红色的屋顶，正随着开发和烟草业的长期衰落而消失。但北卡罗来纳州东部的大部分地区仍是农业区。
lackwater cypress gum swamps give way to seas of white cotton farmland along Interstate 64 on the road from the coast for Rocky Mount. The rusted red roofs of ramshackle tobacco barns along the way are disappearing with development and tobacco’s long decline. But much of eastern North Carolina remains farm country.
这些农民大多是白人。但情况并非一直如此。20世纪初，北卡罗来纳州四分之一的农民是黑人，主要集中在埃奇科姆县等地。如今这一比例已降至3%，这是农业企业整合以及农业部与贷款机构歧视遗留问题共同造成的结果。
Most of those farmers are white. It was not always so. At the turn of the 20th century, a quarter of North Carolina’s farmers were Black, concentrated in places like Edgecombe county. That figure has fallen to 3% now, a product of agribusiness consolidation and the legacy of discrimination by the Department of Agriculture and lenders.
理查德·乔伊纳就是这些农民中的一员。他是一位牧师、越战老兵，也曾担任落基山镇市议员。他在科尼托（发音为kuh-NEE-tuh）经营着一座100英亩（40公顷）的蔬菜农场，提供“食物即药物”，力图解决这一长期高度贫困地区的健康问题。
Richard Joyner, a pastor, Vietnam veteran and former council member for the city of Rocky Mount, is one of those farmers. He runs a 100-acre (40-hectare) vegetable farm in Conetoe (pronounced kuh-NEE-tuh ) providing “food as medicine” in a bid to address health problems in an area of persistent high poverty.
乔伊纳大声主张，公平和包容应成为政府政策的指导原则——而在特朗普治下的美国，这些是禁忌词。乔伊纳支持戴维斯。但这位佃农之子对此也相当愤世嫉俗。
Joyner advocates, loudly, for equity and inclusion as a guide to government policy – dirty words in Trump’s America. Joyner is supporting Davis. But the son of a sharecropper is also fairly cynical about it.
“兄弟，如果我不让我的教会、我的家人做好基层可持续发展所需做的事，不学会如何开始回馈投资、培养最好的孩子、维持我们的社区，唐对我来说什么也改变不了。”乔伊纳说。他做了一次祷告。
“Brother, if I don’t get my church, my family doing what we need to do for sustainability on the ground level, and learning how to start investing back and raising the best children, sustaining in our communities, Don ain’t going to change shit for me,” Joyner said. He offered a prayer.
“当唐和其他人进入这些职位时，上帝啊，我祈求我们祖先那种神圣的良知在他们心中升起。如果他们不做正确的事，我祈求他们会揍烂他们的黑屁股。让他们得不到安宁，直到他们服务的人民得到安宁。没有正义，就没有和平。告诉那些想给我们施舍的人去死吧。我们不要施舍。我们要公平，我们要包容，我们要正义。我们绝不会接受任何低于此的东西。”
“When people like Don and other people get in these places, God, I pray for a sense of holy conscience from our ancestors that will rise up in them. If they don’t do the right thing, I pray they would whoop their Black ass. And let them have no peace until the people they serve have peace. If there is no justice, there is no peace. Tell those that want to give us handouts to go to hell. We don’t want no handout. We want equity, we want inclusion, and we want justice. And we won’t settle for nothing less.”
戴维斯的投票记录反映了他所在选区竞争激烈的性质。他在边境安全问题上与民主党决裂，支持《莱肯·莱利法案》，该法案加重了被指控暴力犯罪的无证移民的处罚，并成为少数签署一项主要具有象征意义的众议院谴责社会主义决议的民主党人之一。
Davis’s voting record reflects the competitive nature of his district. He has broken with Democrats on border security, supported the Laken Riley Act, which increased penalties on undocumented immigrants accused of violent crimes, and was one of a handful of Democrats to sign on to a largely symbolic House resolution condemning socialism.
他与农业企业利益集团结盟，这有时以牺牲环保人士利益为代价，他曾与共和党人一起投票阻挠环保强制令。他批评碳税，同时却支持碳封存研究。
He has allied with agribusiness interests, which has come at times at the expense of environmentalists by voting with Republicans to block environmental mandates. He has been critical of carbon taxes, even while supporting research into carbon sequestration.
在当今美国政治中，这种中间立场是罕见的领域。GovTrack 将戴维斯评为国会中最保守的民主党人，甚至比一些共和党人还要保守。这在一个政治个性分裂的州吸引了跨党派选民。
This middle ground is rare territory in American politics today. GovTrack ranks Davis as the most conservative Democrat in Congress, more so than some Republicans. That attracts cross-party voters in a state with a split political personality.
10月15日，唐·戴维斯在北卡罗来纳州新伯恩的克雷文县选举委员会办公室向早期选民问好。
Don Davis greets early voters at the Craven county board of elections office in New Bern, North Carolina, on 15 October.
“对我来说，最大的担忧是每月增加一万亿美元的赤字，”退休美国海军水手威廉·曼德在罗基蒙特投票时说。他表示军事问题也是他最关心的。曼德自认为是共和党人，仍然支持唐纳德·特朗普。但他是一位分裂票投给不同党派的选民。
“To me, the biggest concern is that deficit we’ve [got] going on that’s going up a trillion dollars a month,” said William Mand, a retired US Navy sailor, voting in Rocky Mount. Military issues are also top of mind for him, he said. Mand identifies as a Republican, and remains supportive of Donald Trump. But he’s a split-ticket voter.
曼德说，他在本月初该州提前投票开始时投了戴维斯一票。巴克豪特和戴维斯都是退伍军人。“他们两人在军事问题上都有足够的资历，能够明智地立法。在这方面我认为他们不相上下……我看了所有关于他做了什么和她做了什么的广告，我对他的感觉比对她更积极。”在最高法院推翻《投票权法案》的保护条款之前，州立法者将北卡罗来纳州东部以黑人为主的农村县份划在一个对民主党安全的选区里。
Mand said he voted for Davis when early voting began in the state earlier this month. Both Buckhout and Davis are military veterans. “They both have enough credentials around military issues to be able to legislate intelligently. I give them a wash there … I’ve seen all the ads on what he’s done and what she’s done, and I had a more positive feeling about him than I did about her.”Before the supreme court blew up the protections of the Voting Rights Act, state lawmakers kept the predominantly Black rural counties in eastern North Carolina in a single district that was safe for Democrats.
自1992年伊娃·克莱顿当选美国众议员以来，黑人议员一直连续代表北卡罗来纳州的“黑人带”地区。
Black lawmakers have represented North Carolina’s Black belt continuously since Eva Clayton’s election to the US House in 1992.
如今，戴维斯必须争取共和党选民才能在政治上生存。这让乔伊纳感到担忧。
Today, Davis must court Republicans to survive politically. This worries Joyner. “It’s past worrying,” he said.
“已经不只是担忧了，”他说。“这已经在发生了……唐会不惜一切代价保住这个席位。如果他认为是白人和这些白人农场主帮他留住了席位，即使理查德·乔伊纳为他拼命干活……你知道，理查德没有他以为的那种金钱或影响力，能让这个选区持续为他倾斜。”罗基蒙特是该选区的民主党大本营，也是戴维斯的根据地。这座城市以黑人为主，贫困率约为20%。
“It’s already happening … Don is going to do what it takes to keep that seat. And if he thinks that the white people and these white farmers have been the one that helped him to stay there, even though Richard Joyner busts his ass for him … you know, Richard don’t have the money or the influence he thinks to keep turning this district for him.”Rocky Mount is the Democratic stronghold in the district, and where Davis hangs his hat. The city is predominantly Black and has a poverty rate of about 20%.
从1999年弗洛伊德飓风造成的致命灾难中恢复，十年间定义了这座城市。尽管能看到罗基蒙特纺织厂翻新和市中心一个出席率很高的活动中心等发展的绿芽，但红利分配不均。
Recovery from the lethal devastation of Hurricane Floyd in 1999 defined the city for a decade. Though the green shoots of development can be seen in the renovation of Rocky Mount Mills and a well-attended event center downtown, the benefits have flowed unevenly.
一条铁路轨道将城市一分为二：纳什县相对属于中产阶级，处于通勤可达所谓“研究三角”区的边缘；而埃奇科姆县仍处于欠发达状态。
A railroad track divides the city between Nash county, which is relatively middle class and at the edge of commuting distance to what’s known as the research triangle, and Edgecombe county, which remains underdeveloped.
北卡罗来纳州东部的农村医疗资源获取情况尤为严峻，罗基蒙特市议会成员安德烈·奈特表示。2023年威廉斯顿的马丁综合医院关闭，导致一些人距离急救医疗服务有数小时车程。他说，倡导经济发展必须优先于文化战争议题。
Rural healthcare access in eastern North Carolina is especially desperate, said Andre Knight, a city council member in Rocky Mount. The 2023 closure of Martin general hospital in Williamston has left some people hours away from emergency medical care. Advocating for economic development has to take priority over the culture war issues, he said.
奈特说：“无论某人去不去洗手间，当你甚至买不起汽油或餐桌上没饭吃时：什么更重要？当你去华盛顿，当你去履职代表选民时，那才是他们需要倡导的事情。”前民主党州长、现正在竞选联邦参议员的罗伊·库珀来自纳什县。他以负担能力为平台在全州进行竞选。这在罗基蒙特及周边地区引起共鸣，该地区拥有一圈竞争激烈的州众议院和州参议院选区，可能决定州政府的权力平衡。
“Whether somebody goes in a bathroom or not, when you can’t even buy gas or put food on your table: what is more important?”Knight said. “When you go to Washington, when you go to represent, that’s the kind of thing they need to advocate for.”Roy Cooper, the former Democratic governor now running for US Senate, is from Nash county. He has campaigned across the state on a platform of affordability. That resonates in Rocky Mount and the surrounding area, which has a ring of highly competitive statehouse and state senate districts that may determine the balance of power in state government.
2011年8月28日，飓风“艾琳”摧毁了北卡罗来纳州纳格斯黑德的一座小屋，留下一片废墟。
The rubble of a cottage destroyed by Hurricane Irene on 28 August 2011 in Nags Head, North Carolina.
“我们算是一个紫色州里带点紫色的选区，”纳什县第25国会选区州众议员民主党提名人洛伦扎·威尔金斯说，该选区涵盖了城市、郊区和农村选民的不寻常组合。威尔金斯正在向州众议员艾伦·切瑟发起再次挑战，后者在2024年的竞选中以约5万张选票中不足500票的优势获胜。
“We’re sort of a purple-ish district in a purple state,” said Lorenza Wilkins, the Democratic nominee for statehouse in congressional district 25, which covers an unusual mix of urban, suburban and rural voters in Nash county. Wilkins is challenging the state representative Allen Chesser in a rematch after a 2024 contest decided by fewer than 500 votes on about 50,000 ballots.
威尔金斯说：“你想想好主意的垄断。没有哪个党派垄断了这一点。负担能力仍然是首要关切。人们真切担心如何继续负担得起食品杂货、如何负担得起给孩子的托儿服务、如何负担得起水电费。当然，汽油价格此刻确实让我们所有人都感到捉襟见肘。所以，人们只是真的关心基本的日常需求。”
“You think about monopolies on good ideas. No party has that,” Wilkins said. “Affordability continues to be the top concern. Folks are genuinely concerned about how they can continue to afford groceries, how they can afford to have childcare for their young people, how they can afford their utilities. Naturally, gas prices are really pinching all of us at this point. So, folks are just really concerned with the basic everyday needs.”