距离中期选举还有一天，国会两院的形势截然不同：一院的数据已基本尘埃落定，另一院则依然扑朔迷离——但从数据来看，对民主党而言，两院前景均颇为乐观。
One day out from midterms, the data is about as settled as it can get for one chamber of Congress, while the other remains quite up in the air — yet for Democrats, both appear promising based on the data.
确实，民主党似乎稳操胜券可赢得众议院，且在参议院竞争中也占据优势。尽管如此，对民主党而言，仅赢得一院与拿下两院之间存在巨大差别。
Indeed, Democrats appear set to win the House and are favored to win the Senate. Nonetheless, there is a considerable difference for Democrats between just winning one or taking both chambers.
考虑到全国大环境——据内特·西尔弗统计，民主党在通用国会选票上领先8个百分点，按可能投票者调整后领先优势增至9个百分点以上——如果民主党赢得众议院却输掉参议院，那可能被视为惨胜，尤其是2028年大选竞选活动将于11月4日拉开帷幕。
Given the national environment — Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 8 points, inching up to above 9 when adjusted for likely voters, according to Nate Silver — if Democrats win the House but lose the Senate, that could be seen as a pyrrhic victory, especially with the 2028 campaign starting on Nov. 4.
话虽如此，特朗普总统的工作支持率徘徊在37%左右；更糟糕的是，仅有20%的美国人强烈支持其工作表现，而近50%的人强烈不支持。共和党应担心特朗普会成为他们的累赘。
That said, President Trump’s job approval sits around 37 percent; worse, only 20 percent of Americans strongly approve of his job, while nearly 50 percent strongly disapprove. Republicans should worry that Trump could weigh them down.
自1946年哈里·杜鲁门以来，没有任何总统在进入中期选举时如此不受欢迎。因此，《库克政治报告》上周将19个众议院选区的评级向民主党倾斜，目前预测民主党将净增12至22个众议院席位。
No president has entered a midterm this unpopular since Harry Truman in 1946. As a result, Cook Political Report moved 19 House races toward Democrats last week, and now projects Democrats to pick up 12-22 House seats.
参议院则完全是另一番光景。民主党需要净增四个席位，其中北卡罗来纳州一席似乎已无悬念。在该“松柏州”，民主党候选人、前州长罗伊·库珀在平均民调中以近11个百分点领先共和党人迈克尔·沃特利。但所有其他竞争均势均力敌，即便民主党表现优于预期，特别是在红州。
The Senate is another matter entirely. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, though one — North Carolina — appears settled. In the Tar Heel State, Democratic candidate, former Gov. Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by an average of nearly 11 points. All other races though, are a coin flip, even if Democrats are outperforming, particularly in red states.
在关键战场州——密歇根、爱荷华、缅因、堪萨斯、俄亥俄、阿拉斯加和得克萨斯——加上已变得有竞争力的南卡罗来纳州，《真清政治》网站显示所有州的民调差距均在误差范围内。
In the battleground states — Michigan, Iowa, Maine, Kansas, Ohio, Alaska and Texas — plus South Carolina which has become competitive, RealClearPolitics puts all within the margin of error.
根据《华盛顿邮报》对9月15日以来在上述各州（不包括南卡罗来纳州）进行的民调分析，所有这些竞选的差距都在5个百分点以内。近期略有向民主党倾斜的趋势，但绝对不足以得出定论。
And, according to a Washington Post analysis of polls only conducted since Sept. 15 in those states — excluding South Carolina — all of those races are within five points. There is slight movement towards Democrats of late, but certainly not enough to be conclusive.
也有几个异常值。CNN周四发布的民调显示，密歇根州参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德以49%对42%领先，得克萨斯州参议员候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科也以49%对42%领先。周五，《华盛顿邮报》在堪萨斯州的一项调查显示，民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿领先10个百分点，这将是该州90多年来未选出过民主党参议员的情况下的前所未有的结果。
There have been a few outliers. CNN polling released Thursday found Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed up 49 percent to 42 percent and Texas Senate candidate James Talarico up 49 percent to 42 percent. On Friday, a Washington Post survey in Kansas showed the Democrat, Adam Hamilton with a 10-point lead, which would be an unprecedented result for a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in over 90 years.
不过，民主党究竟能否真正赢得参议院控制权，完全取决于你问谁。在爱荷华州、密歇根州、俄亥俄州和堪萨斯州，对共和党民意进行民调尤为困难。共和党的支持率可能比表面显示的更强。
Whether Democrats actually pull through to win the Senate, though, depends entirely upon whom you ask. In Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Kansas, it is particularly hard to poll Republicans. Republican support may be stronger than it appears.
尽管如此，“决策台”给民主党的胜算定在62%，尽管他们预测民主党将获得51个席位，留给失误的空间极小。“投票中心”给出的胜算为64%，而期货交易网站的胜算则在70%左右。西尔弗的模型在10月20日给出的胜算约为75%。
Still, the Decision Desk puts Democrats’ odds at 62 percent, even though they project 51 seats, leaving little room for error. VoteHub has them at 64 percent, whereas futures-trading sites are around 70 percent. Silver’s model put the odds at roughly 75 percent as of Oct. 20.
尽管如此，投票率数据支持民主党的乐观情绪。截至周五，已有超过4600万张选票投出，在报告党派归属的州份中，民主党占了约44%，共和党占31%。
Nonetheless, turnout data supports Democrats’ optimism. More than 46 million ballots have been cast as of Friday, and in the states that report party, Democrats accounted for roughly 44 percent of them, against 31 percent for Republicans.
由于预计胜负差距将非常接近，未决定的选民可能起决定性作用。CNN发现，在密歇根州、得克萨斯州和堪萨斯州，至少有八分之一的可能投票者仍可能改变主意。在得克萨斯州和堪萨斯州，至少六成未决定选民是共和党人或倾向共和党。这究竟意味着共和党还有获得选票的空间，还是意味着共和党人可能会弃权不投票——从而让这两个深红州出现竞争——仍有待观察。
With margins projected to be this close, undecided voters could be decisive. CNN found that in Michigan, Texas and Kansas, at least one in eight likely voters could still change their minds. In Texas and Kansas, at least 6 in 10 undecided voters are Republicans or Republican-leaning. Whether that signifies room for the GOP to gain votes or that Republicans are likely to stay home — opening up those two deep-red states — remains to be seen.
这些民调的抽样误差约为 5 个百分点，而竞争预计将以一两个百分点的差距决出胜负，因此这一误差具有重要意义。换个角度说，虽然民主党目前在参议院占据优势，但结果尚未尘埃落定，尽管民主党理所当然地对自己的胜算感到乐观，而这在 2024 年 11 月还是难以想象的。
Those surveys carry sampling errors of around 5 percent, and with contests projected to be decided by one or two points, that is significant. Put another way, while there is a current Democratic advantage for the upper chamber, it is not a settled outcome, even though Democrats are justifiably feeling better about their odds than could have been imaginable in November 2024.
但我们目前可以比较有把握地说，众议院的局势实际上已定，而参议院的控制权取决于七八场相差仅几个百分点的竞争，其中大多数发生在特朗普两年前以两位数优势拿下的州。然而，民主党竟能在这些州具有竞争力，实属罕见，这证明了总统支持率下滑如何拖累其所属政党的整张选票。
What we can comfortably say right now however, is that the House is effectively decided, while the Senate rests on seven or eight races separated by just a few points, and the majority of them are in states Trump carried by double digits just two years ago. And yet, the fact that Democrats are even competitive in these states is remarkable, and a testament to how a president’s declining approval can drag down his party’s entire ticket.
归根结底，虽然我们必须等到美国选民在一天之内做出决定，但根据现有民调，2026 年中期选举正成为现代史上竞争最为广泛——至少在参议院层面——的选举之一，甚至可能是最空前的选举之一。
Ultimately, while we must wait to see how America decides in just one day, based on available polls, the 2026 midterms are shaping up to be one of the most widely competitive — at least on the Senate level — in modern history, and could be one of the most unprecedented.
如果民主党能赢下这张扩大后的选战版图，那可能预示着美国政治的变革，进步派很可能会以温和派为代价而获益。
If Democrats can win this expanded map, that could herald a change in American politics, with progressives likely gaining at the expense of moderates.
反之，如果共和党尽管面对不利的全国大环境仍能守住参议院，那将对民主党——无论温和派还是进步派——构成沉重打击，尤其是在 2028 年大选非正式拉开帷幕之际。
Alternatively, if Republicans manage to hold the Senate despite the national environment, that would be a considerable blow for Democrats — moderates and progressives alike — heading into the unofficial start of the 2028 campaign.
道格拉斯·E·舍恩和卡莉·库珀曼是民调专家，也是总部位于纽约的舍恩库珀曼研究公司的合伙人。他们是《美国：团结或灭亡》一书的合著者。
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book “America: Unite or Die.”