在2026年中期选举周期的收官阶段，所有可得证据表明，趋势正向民主党倾斜。民调、预测以及预测市场如今正为共和党敲响警钟，几乎所有关键竞选都向民主党倾斜。
In the closing days of the 2026 midterm cycle, all available evidence suggests that the trends are moving in Democrats’ favor. Polls, forecasts, and prediction markets are now ringing alarm bells for Republicans, as virtually all key races move in Democrats’ direction.
事实上，周六《库克政治报告》将“更多的十几场众议院选举”转向民主党，现预测民主党将夺取12至25个众议院席位，可能使其获得自2009年以来最大的多数。
Indeed, on Saturday, Cook Political Report shifted "a dozen more House races" toward Democrats, now projecting that Democrats will flip 12-25 House seats, potentially giving them their largest majority since 2009.
因此，政治预测网站VoteHub和Decision Desk已将民主党夺取众议院的概率上调至本周期最高水平：分别为89%和83%，截至周日下午。
As a result, political forecasting sites VoteHub and Decision Desk have updated their odds of Democrats taking the House to their highest levels of the cycle: 89% and 83%, respectively, as of Sunday afternoon.
预测市场也随之跟进：Kalshi给出民主党夺取众议院的概率为93%，夺取参议院的概率为71%。
Prediction markets have followed suit: Kalshi gives Democrats a 93% chance to take the House and a 71% chance to win the Senate as well.
在此背景下，参议院的趋势同样指向民主党，尽管共和党保住上议院的概率略高，但显而易见，势头在民主党一方。
To that end, the trends in the Senate point in the same direction, and while Republicans have slightly better odds of keeping the upper chamber, it’s clear that the momentum is with Democrats.
参议院控制权如同抛硬币——而民主党的道路穿过特朗普的“领地”选举前的最终民调显示，七个关键竞选中的全部或大多数正向左倾，包括堪萨斯州，民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿在最近的四项民调中领先，其中《华盛顿邮报》的一项民调显示他以9个百分点领先共和党现任者罗杰·马歇尔。
SENATE CONTROL IS A COIN FLIP — AND DEMOCRATS’ PATH RUNS THROUGH TRUMP COUNTRY Final polls ahead of the election show all or most of the seven key races shifting to the left, including in Kansas, where Democrat Adam Hamilton leads in the four most recent polls, including one from The Washington Post in which he led Republican incumbent Roger Marshall by 9%.
诚然，这是一例异常——《华盛顿邮报》正对其准确性进行审查——但其他所有民调在该州均在6个百分点之内，而该州已超过90年未出现民主党参议员，这表明基本趋势正向民主党倾斜。
True, that is an outlier – and its accuracy is being reviewed by The Washington Post – but the fact that every other poll is within 6 points in a state that has not had a Democratic senator in over 90 years indicates that the underlying trend is moving in Democrats’ favor.
其他由共和党掌控的席位，如南卡罗来纳州、爱荷华州、缅因州、德克萨斯州和俄亥俄州，也正日益进入民主党可及的范围。
Other Republican-held seats like South Carolina, Iowa, Maine, Texas, and Ohio are also increasingly within reach for Democrats.
在这些竞选中，南卡罗来纳州和爱荷华州是仅有的两个共和党候选人在民调中领先的州，但在南卡罗来纳州领先优势不到3个百分点，在爱荷华州不到1个百分点。因此，两场竞选在统计上均处于胶着状态，民主党有望触及。
Of those races, South Carolina and Iowa are the only two where the Republican candidate has a polling lead, but it’s under 3 points in South Carolina and under 1 point in Iowa. Thus, both races are statistically tied and within reach for Democrats.
在其他州——缅因州、得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州和密歇根州——民调一直显示民主党候选人领先。
In the other states – Maine, Texas, Ohio, and Michigan – the polls have consistently shown Democratic candidates leading.
尽管这些领先优势不大，但并未缩小，尤其是密歇根州出现了明显扩大，阿卜杜勒·埃尔-萨耶德目前领先共和党人迈克·罗杰斯约4个百分点。
And while those leads are small, they have not contracted, and Michigan in particular has seen a noticeable widening, with Abdul El-Sayed now leading Republican Mike Rogers by roughly 4 points.
不过，众议员海利·史蒂文斯对罗杰斯的支持是否会影响这场竞选，将值得关注，尤其是在温和派和黑人选民中，因为民调显示，埃尔-萨耶德在这两个关键选民群体中均表现不佳。
However, it will be interesting to see whether Rep. Haley Stevens’ endorsement of Rogers impacts the race, particularly among moderates and Black voters, as polls show that El-Sayed has struggled with both key demographics.
话虽如此，鉴于北卡罗来纳州的参议院竞选实际上已由民主党人罗伊·库珀锁定胜局——他领先共和党人迈克尔·惠特利近11个百分点——民主党现在拥有多种可能赢得参议院的途径。
That said, given that North Carolina’s Senate race is effectively decided for Democrat Roy Cooper – who leads Republican Michael Whatley by nearly 11 points – Democrats now have a wide range of possible routes to winning the Senate.
在2024年大选刚结束时，或许还显得不太可能：仅仅两年后，民主党就能处于同时夺回众议院和参议院的边缘，更不用说可能赢下南卡罗来纳、阿拉斯加、爱荷华、得克萨斯和堪萨斯等州了。
Immediately after the 2024 election, it may have seemed improbable that just two years later, Democrats would be on the verge of retaking both the House and Senate, let alone possibly winning states like South Carolina, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Kansas.
然而，这是非常现实的可能性，这在很大程度上归因于特朗普总统目前低于40%的支持率。
Yet it is a very real possibility, owing in no small part to President Trump’s approval rating, currently below 40%.
在关键议题上，情况更糟。福克斯新闻民调显示，不到十分之三（29%）的美国人认可特朗普对经济的处理，而认可他对通胀处理的比例更低，仅为22%。
On key issues, it’s even worse. Less than 3 in 10 (29%) Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, and an even smaller 22% approve of how he’s handled inflation, per Fox News polling.
尽管共和党候选人和竞选操盘手们极力宣扬他们在这些胶着竞选中的机会，但共和党内部已出现恐慌迹象。
Even as Republican candidates and operatives talk up their chances in these close races, there are signs of panic within Republican ranks.
特朗普决定取消本周末在堪萨斯州和爱荷华州的集会，随后又重新安排，这很能说明问题。这两个深红州的共和党人本不应需要总统的助力，但随着全国政治环境向民主党倾斜，他们确实需要。
Trump’s decision to cancel, then reschedule, rallies in Kansas and Iowa this weekend says as much. Republicans in those two deep-red states should not need a boost from the president, but with the national environment tilting toward Democrats, they do.
换个角度说，如果共和党对自己的胜算充满信心，就不需要总统去一些最深红的州和选区助选了。
Put another way, if Republicans were confident in their chances, they would not need the president to campaign in some of the deepest-red states and districts.
归根结底，虽然只有等到所有选票清点完毕才能知晓真实情况，但从竞选最后一个周末的情况来看，民主党占据优势显而易见。卡莉·库珀曼是肖恩·库珀曼研究公司的首席执行官。
Ultimately, while we will only know the true picture after all the votes have been counted, coming out of the campaign’s final weekend, it is clear that Democrats have the advantage. Carly Cooperman is CEO of Schoen Cooperman Research.