距离中期选举不足一周，许多人预测民主党可能会出现类似2018年的“蓝色浪潮”，当时他们赢得了41个众议院席位，原因是他们在通用国会选票民调中领先近9个百分点，且全国政治环境已大幅向有利于他们的方向倾斜。这并非对当前局势的准确描述。
With less than one week until the midterms many have projected that Democrats could win in a 2018-style "blue wave," when they won 41 House seats, due to their almost 9-point lead in the generic congressional ballot and a national environment that has tilted drastically in their favor. That is the wrong term for what is occurring.
事实上，我们看到的现在是红色撤退、红色崩溃和潜在的红色败局，而非民主党或其政策的压倒性胜利。
Indeed, what we are looking at now is a red retreat, a red collapse, and a potential red defeat, not an overwhelming victory for Democrats or their policies.
毫无疑问，就我们能判断最终结果的程度而言，民主党几乎必定会夺回众议院，并有近三分之二的机会夺回参议院。
Make no mistake, to the extent that we can determine the eventual outcome, Democrats are almost certain to take the House and have nearly a two-thirds chance to take the Senate.
民主党候选人在几乎所有关键参议院竞选中领先或持平，其中包括北卡罗来纳州、密歇根州、缅因州——同时在堪萨斯州、得克萨斯州甚至可能阿拉斯加州等通常被视为安全的红州，也出现了红色撤退的迹象。丽兹·皮克：共和党可能无视民调、在选举日给民主党惊喜的五大理由 与此同时，提前投票数字有利于民主党，热情差距也是如此，显示民主党选民比共和党选民更有投票动力。
Democratic candidates are ahead or tied in virtually all of the battleground Senate races North Carolina Michigan Maine among them – while there are signs of a red retreat in typically safe states like Kansas Texas and even possibly Alaska LIZ PEEK: FIVE REASONS REPUBLICANS COULD DEFY THE POLLS AND SHOCK DEMOCRATS ON ELECTION DAY At the same time, early voting numbers favor Democrats, as does the enthusiasm gap, which shows Democrats are more motivated to vote than Republicans.
初选也反映了这一点。在今年举行竞争性初选的二十二个州中，有十七个州的民主党选民投票率上升。仅在得克萨斯州，2022年共和党初选投票数比民主党多90万票，而今年民主党反而多投了15万票——出现了150万票的摇摆。李·卡特：美国人对所有人都感到愤怒——但谁会真正去投票？
This has shown up in primaries as well. In the twenty-two states that held competitive primaries this year, seventeen saw increases in Democratic voter turnout. In Texas alone, whereas in 2022, Republicans cast 900,000 more votes than Democrats, this year, Democrats cast 150,000 more – a 1.5 million vote swing. LEE CARTER: AMERICA IS ANGRY AT EVERYONE — BUT WHO WILL ACTUALLY VOTE?
同样，特朗普总统的支持率平均仅38%，加剧了悲观情绪。当被问及国家是走在正轨还是偏离正轨时，32%的人认为国家走在正轨，而63%认为偏离正轨，净负面差距达31个百分点。
Likewise, President Trump’s approval averaging just 38%, is contributing to growing pessimism. When asked whether the country is on the right track or headed in the wrong direction, 32% now say the country is headed in the right direction, versus 63% who say it is on the wrong track, a net-negative 31 points.
2025年3月，这一数字仅为净负9分左右，凸显了发生的下滑，以及美国人对该政府的失望程度有多深。
In March 2025, that was just under a net-negative 9 points, underscoring the decline that has occurred and just how much Americans have soured on this administration.
诚然，如果共和党的退守演变成溃败，民主党将赢得参议院控制权。
To be sure, if a red retreat turns into a red collapse, Democrats will win the Senate.
然而，数据也清楚地表明，全国情绪的转变绝不能被解读为对民主党政策的背书，即便民主党确实提出了议程。
However, the data also make clear that the shift in national sentiment can, in no way, be read as an endorsement of Democrats’ policies, to the extent that they have offered an agenda.
众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯上周末在《纽约时报》上最接近地勾勒了在成本、医疗保健和制衡政府方面的优先事项。但这更多是一份反对共和党统治的控诉，而非一份拥有广泛公众支持的执政蓝图。
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries came closest in the New York Times last weekend, outlining priorities on costs, health care, and checking the administration. But that was more a case against Republican rule than a governing blueprint with broad public support.
事实上，如果民主党赢得参议院，主要将是对政府、通胀和伊朗战争感到沮丧的产物——并非因为选民背书一项全面的民主党议程。
Indeed, if Democrats win the Senate, it will primarily be a product of frustration with the administration, inflation, and the war in Iran – not because voters endorse a sweeping Democratic agenda.
目前，略低于40%的美国人对民主党持有好感。这一比例在统计上与特朗普总统以及共和党持平。因此，民主党应抵制将胜利视为急剧左转许可证的冲动。特洛伊·杰克逊（缅因州）、阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（密歇根州）和詹姆斯·塔拉里科（得克萨斯州）分别在不同州参选，可能因不同原因获胜，但没有任何派系能声称拥有全国选举结果的所有权。
Currently, just under 40% of Americans have a favorable view of the Democratic Party. That is statistically tied with President Trump as well as the Republican Party Democrats should therefore resist treating victory as a license to move sharply left. Troy Jackson (Maine), Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan), and James Talarico (Texas) are running in different states and may win for different reasons, but no faction can claim ownership of the national result.
考验将在于民主党能否将公众愤怒转化为一份有纪律的议程：降低成本、恢复稳定、制衡行政权力越界，并吸引基本盘以外的支持。如果相反，他们花费两年时间重新争辩意识形态之争，他们的多数派地位将昙花一现。
The test will be whether Democrats turn public anger into a disciplined agenda: lowering costs, restoring stability, checking executive overreach, and attracting support beyond their base. If, instead, they spend two years relitigating ideological fights, their majority will be short-lived.
事实上，在最近的一项ABC民调中，民主社会主义极不受欢迎，其评价接近特朗普的水平。不足十分之四（37%）的美国人持有好感，而59%的人持不良感。
In fact, in a recent ABC survey, democratic socialism was deeply unpopular, with ratings bordering on Trump’s. Less than 4 in 10 (37%) of Americans had a favorable view, while 59% did not.
同样地，即便是民主党选民也并未被说服。根据《纽约时报》的民调，当被问及更倾向于民主党向政治中间靠拢还是向政治左翼靠拢时，48%的民主党人倾向于中间路线，而只有27%的人倾向于向左转。在独立选民中——可以说是最关键的群体——调查结果更为鲜明。超过七成（72%）的独立选民希望民主党向中间靠拢，仅有11%的人希望该党进一步向左。
In that same vein, even Democratic voters are not sold. When asked whether they prefer the Democratic Party to move further to the political center or the political left, 48% of Democrats preferred the center, versus 27% who preferred moving to the left, according to New York Times polling Among independents, arguably the most critical bloc, the findings are even more stark. More than 7 in 10 (72 percent) of independents want Democrats to move to the center, whereas just 11% want the party to go further left.
即使民主党确实赢得国会两院的控制权，那也是建立在选民拒绝特朗普和共和党执政的基础上——而非给予他们从左翼执政的空白支票。胜利将创造一个提供称职、务实领导的机会，而非授予一份授权。
Even if Democrats do sweep both chambers of Congress, they will have won on a rejection of Trump and Republican governance – not a blank check to govern from the left. Victory would create an opportunity to provide competent, practical leadership, not a mandate.
所有这些对民主党至关重要，因为2028年大选将在下周三非正式拉开帷幕。
All of this will matter for Democrats because the 2028 elections will unofficially start next Wednesday.
民主党仍然缺乏一位公认的单一领袖，依然在极左派和建制派之间分裂，中期选举无法解决这场内斗。他们当前的任务是证明自己能够称职执政、吸引独立选民、并改善美国人的日常生活。
Democrats still lack a single recognized leader and remain divided between the far left and establishment wings, and the midterms will not resolve that fight. Their immediate task is proving they can govern competently, appeal to independents, and improve Americans' daily lives.
归根结底，这些中期选举将是对特朗普总统和共和党的一次公投。选民投下选票时，脑海中首要考量的是汽油价格、房贷利率和其他生活成本，而非这对2028年意味着什么。
Ultimately, these midterms will be a referendum on President Trump and Republicans. Voters will cast their ballots with gas prices, mortgage rates, and other costs foremost in their minds, not with what it means for 2028.
共和党溃退可能将权力交付给民主党。但如果他们把反弹误读为意识形态上的转变，就会坐失良机。从务实的中左立场出发执政——聚焦于可负担性、稳定性和实绩——才是他们重建信任的途径。卡莉·库珀曼是肖恩·库珀曼研究公司的首席执行官。
A red retreat may deliver Democrats power. But if they mistake backlash for ideological conversion, they will squander the opening. Governing from the pragmatic center-left – focused on affordability, stability, and results – is how they rebuild trust. Carly Cooperman is CEO of Schoen Cooperman Research.