
政治是一种职业。有人天生擅长,有人不擅长,还有人通过实践和经验变得擅长。
Politics is a vocation. Some are naturally good at it, others are not, and others still become good at it with practice and experience.
但还有一类政治从业者,我一直觉得很有意思:他们投身选举政治,却从未真正掌握必要的技能,主要是因为他们从未需要这样做。这些官员例如是保守地区的保守派共和党人,因为很少需要培养真才实学就能取得成功,所以未能学会这份工作的艺术。直到时间追上他们为止。
But there’s another group of political practitioners whom I’ve long found fascinating: those who pursue a career in electoral politics and never really learn the necessary skills, largely because they never have to. These are officials who, for example, are conservative Republicans in conservative Republican areas, who fail to learn the art of the job because it is rarely necessary for them to cultivate any real talent to succeed. That is, until time catches up with them.
以堪萨斯州共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔为例,他从未展现过任何显著的政治技能,据称曾告诉竞选团队,他想用一则回应有关他如何对待负担不起医疗费用的患者的报道的广告,来结束他的2026年连任竞选。
Take Republican Sen. Roger Marshall of Kansas, for example, who has never demonstrated any notable political skills and who apparently told his campaign staff that he wanted to end his 2026 re-election campaign with a response to reporting about how he treated medical patients who couldn’t afford their medical bills.
据报道,他的助手们告诉参议员这是个坏主意,但这位共和党议员似乎置若罔闻。《纽约时报》报道称:这位参议员——至少瞒着一些高级助手——安排了自己的摄制组录制并制作了这样一则广告。
His aides reportedly told the senator that was a bad idea, at which point the GOP lawmaker apparently ignored them. The New York Times reported: The senator — without the knowledge of at least some top aides — arranged for his own film crew to record and package just such an ad.
马歇尔身穿红色扣领衬衫,背景是田园风光,在一则60秒的广告中辩称,他经常提供免费医疗。
Wearing a red button-down shirt in front of a bucolic background, Mr. Marshall made the case in a 60-second ad that he had often provided free care.
在直面镜头的讲话中,这位陷入困境的现任议员将乱局归咎于一家催收机构,称他的前医疗诊所“偶尔”会使用该机构。
In the straight-to-camera message, the struggling incumbent blamed the mess on a collection agency that he said his former medical practice “occasionally” used.
虽然目前尚不完全清楚这则最后时刻的广告是否会登上电视台——《时报》的报道补充说,他的竞选领导层“采取行动阻止广告发布”,随后参议员“开始直接将广告发送给竞选团队外的人员”——但马歇尔还是借此作为收官信息,重新引发了人们对他的最大弱点之一的关注。
While it’s not entirely clear whether this last-minute ad will reach broadcast stations — the Times’ report added that his campaign leaders “moved to block the release of the ad,” at which point the senator “began sending it directly to people outside the campaign” — Marshall nevertheless brought fresh attention to one of his biggest vulnerabilities as part of his closing message.
民调显示马歇尔陷入困境的理由不胜枚举。从关于他居住地的质疑,到一笔未付的面包店账单,从他持续的竞选财务争议,到民主党候选人、牧师亚当·汉密尔顿的强劲竞选实力,这位现任参议员及其单薄的履历,正处于一场鲜少有人预测到的势均力敌的竞争漩涡中心。
There’s no shortage of reasons why polls show Marshall struggling. From questions about his residency to an unpaid bakery bill, from his ongoing campaign finance controversy to the strength of the Rev. Adam Hamilton’s Democratic candidacy, the incumbent senator and his thin record are at the center of a toss-up race that few would have predicted.
但我长期以来认为,堪萨斯州这场竞选的转折点出现在9月初,当时堪萨斯州选民得知,马歇尔在担任私人执业医生期间,曾因患者无力支付医疗账单而扣押工资、申请逮捕令。有充足证据表明,当地选民听到了这个故事,并视其为重大问题。
But I’ve long argued that the turning point in the Kansas race came in early September, when Kansans learned that Marshall garnished paychecks and pushed arrest warrants when his patients couldn’t afford their medical bills during his time as a physician in private practice. There’s ample evidence to suggest that local voters heard the story and considered it important.
这件事和其他任何因素一样,深深印在选民脑海中。就在那个时间点前后,一些民调开始显示汉密尔顿取得领先,尤其是在民主党竞选团队在广告中抓住这一问题大做文章之后。
This, as much as anything else, stuck. It was around that point when some polls started showing Hamilton taking a lead, especially after the Democratic campaign seized on the issue in its advertising.
上周末,情况进一步恶化,一名前患者对马歇尔提起集体诉讼,专门针对他收取的高额利息。
Late last week, the story managed to get a little worse when a former patient filed a class-action lawsuit against Marshall, focused specifically on the high interest rates he charged.
一位政治技巧更高超的参议员或许能有效应对这场争议,并以一种不损害其候选人资格的方式驾驭全州竞选。然而马歇尔不具备——且似乎从未尝试培养——这些技巧。
A senator with keener political skills might have responded effectively to the controversy and navigated the statewide race in a way that would not have damaged his candidacy. Marshall, however, does not have — and seems never to have even tried to develop — those skills.
结果导致了一则广告的推出,马歇尔的竞选团队试图阻止它播出,这样做是对的。
The result is an ad that the Kansan’s campaign team was right to try to stop.