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彭博社

海湾阿拉伯石油巨头恢复战前原油出口水平Gulf Arab Oil Giants Are Exporting Crude at Pre-War Rates Again

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沙特阿美利雅得炼油厂,10月3日。来源:法新社/盖蒂图片社The Saudi Aramco Riyadh refinery on Oct. 3. Source: AFP/Getty Images

中东主要阿拉伯产油国的原油出货量与战前大致持平,为全球市场带来了一波供应潮,有助于抑制油价。

The Middle East’s leading Arab oil producing nations are shipping crude at about the same rate as before the war, bringing a tide of supply to the global market that’s helped to temper prices.

据彭博汇编的油轮追踪数据及能源分析公司数据显示,沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国、伊拉克和科威特10月合计出口量环比增长10%,达到日均1553万桶,大致与年初出货水平持平。相比之下,伊朗出口量连续第二个月维持在零,正值美国海军封锁之际。

Combined exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait climbed by 10% to 15.53 million barrels a day in October, putting them roughly in line with levels shipped at the start of the year, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg and energy-analytics firms. By contrast, Iran’s exports remained at zero for a second month amid a US naval blockade.

海湾阿拉伯产油国出货量的回升,证明了油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡进行隐蔽穿梭运输的成功,这种做法由阿联酋首创,沙特近期也开始采用。

The resurgence in flows from Gulf Arab producers attests to the success of covert shuttle runs by tankers through the Strait of Hormuz waterway, pioneered by the UAE and adopted more recently by the Saudis.

这有助于保持实物原油市场供应充裕,并在关键时刻缓和油价——当前汽油、柴油等燃料成本高企,挤压消费者、推高通胀,并给正值中期选举投票之际的特朗普总统带来政治风险。

It’s helping to keep physical oil markets well supplied and to moderate prices at a critical moment, when the elevated cost of fuels like gasoline and diesel is squeezing consumers, stoking inflation and presenting political risks for President Donald Trump as voters head to the polls for midterm elections.

据油轮追踪及卫星图像数据,以及Kpler和Vortexa的数据综合显示,沙特领涨,10月出货量增至日均700万桶,环比激增13%。沙特能源部未立即回应置评请求。

Saudi Arabia led the latest surge, boosting flows to 7 million barrels a day in October, a 13% month-on-month hike, according to a combination of data from tanker-tracking and satellite images, as well as figures from Kpler and Vortexa. The nation’s Energy Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

周一,随着华盛顿和德黑兰均释放可能继续寻求外交解决的信号,原油期货回落;但对军事冲突再度升级的担忧为油价提供支撑。布伦特原油合约在每桶106美元附近交易。

While crude futures retreated on Monday as both Washington and Tehran signaled they may continue to seek a diplomatic resolution, fears of renewed military escalation are keeping the market supported. Brent contracts are trading near $106 a barrel.

在冲突大部分时间里落后于阿联酋后,沙特出口在9月其替代性的东西向管道因伊拉克发动的袭击而暂时关闭后,作为回应,这位欧佩克领头羊加大通过霍尔木兹海峡的出货量,出口量随之开始回升。

Having lagged behind the UAE for most of the conflict, Saudi exports started picking up when the OPEC leader ramped up flows through Hormuz in response to a temporary closure of its alternative East-West pipeline during an attack in September that was launched from Iraq.

随着东西向航线恢复,该王国目前同时受益于其传统的波斯湾航线和红海绕行航线。上周,欧盟“哨兵2号”卫星拍摄的卫星图像显示,有九艘超大型油轮停泊在沙特阿拉伯波斯湾沿岸的泊位上,装载活动显著加快。

With the resumption of the East-West link, the kingdom is now benefiting from both its traditional Persian Gulf route and its Red Sea bypass. Last week, satellite images from the European Union’s Sentinel 2 orbiter showed nine supertankers moored at Saudi berths in the Persian Gulf, a notable acceleration in loading activity.

10月份,增量主要来自该王国红海沿岸的延布港,出口量激增35%至日均307万桶。

In October, the bulk of the increase came from the kingdom’s port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, where exports jumped by 35% to 3.07 million barrels a day.

由于许多船只关闭应答器以避免被发现和袭击,油轮航行情况的可视性仍受阻碍,这意味着实际石油流量可能比观测到的更大。

Visibility into tanker traffic remains impeded as many ships deactivate transponders to avoid detection and attack, meaning the flow of barrels could be even larger than what’s observed.

数据显示,伊拉克是上月增幅第二大的国家,出口量增加9.5%至日均335万桶,接近战前水平。南部巴士拉港的装运量上升,经由土耳其的北部路线装运量几乎翻倍。该国上个月表示,其出口量接近战前水平。

The second-biggest increase last month came from Iraq, which bolstered flows by 9.5% to 3.35 million barrels a day, approaching pre-war levels, the figures showed. Shipments rose from the southern port of Basrah, and almost doubled through a northern route via Turkey. The country said last month its exports were close to pre-war levels.

阿联酋在海湾同行之前几个月就设法实现了出口激增,10月出口量微增5万桶/日,至日均374万桶,为7月以来最高水平。

Flows from the UAE, which engineered a surge months before its gulf counterparts, edged higher, by 50,000 barrels a day to an average of 3.74 million barrels a day, the highest since July.

根据国际能源署数据,该国9月产量创下新高。阿联酋能源部长苏海尔·马兹鲁伊周一在阿布扎比举行的一次会议上表示,该国石油出口在冲突期间“曾在某些时候”超过战前水平,但未具体说明目前的出口量。

The nation’s production hit a new record in September, according to the International Energy Agency. UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told a conference in Abu Dhabi on Monday that the country’s oil exports has surpassed prewar rates “at certain times” during the conflict, without specifying how much it’s currently shipping.

科威特10月出口量增长三分之一,达到战前以来最高水平,日均出口144万桶,油轮船队规模不断扩大,油轮追踪数据和Kpler数据显示。科威特国家石油公司上个月已表示,出口量已恢复至冲突前左右水平。

Kuwait boosted exports by a third in October to the highest since before the outbreak of the war, sending out 1.44 million barrels a day on a growing fleet of tankers, data from tanker-tracking and Kpler indicated. Kuwait’s state oil company already said last month that exports were back to around pre-conflict levels.

除了收复受战争影响的销售量和收入外,仍留在欧佩克的三个海湾国家可能还有额外动力最大化出口,因为该组织成员正准备就2027年的产量目标进行谈判。

Besides recouping sales volumes and revenues impacted by the war, the three gulf countries still in OPEC may have an additional incentive to maximize exports, as the organization’s members prepare to negotiate production targets for 2027.

石油输出国组织及其盟友正在审查每个成员的实际产能,以便在部长们于11月29日会晤时校准配额。

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies are conducting a review of how much each member can physically pump, with a view to calibrating quotas when ministers meet on Nov. 29.

伊朗是显著的例外。油轮追踪数据显示,连续第二个月未检测到原油或凝析油——一种轻质油——的出口,因为美国继续实施封锁。

Iran was the prominent exception. No exports of crude or condensate — a type of light oil — were detected in tanker-tracking for a second consecutive month as the US continued to impose its blockade.

欧盟“哨兵1号”和“哨兵2号”卫星的图像显示,10月哈尔格岛码头以及苏鲁什和贾斯克出口终端均无装载活动。

Satellite images from the EU’s Sentinel 1 and Sentinel 2 orbiters showed no loading activity at the Kharg Island jetties and the Soroosh and Jask export terminals in October.

不过,这一图景可能不完整。大多数运载伊朗原油的油轮在波斯湾内不发送位置信号,这使得通过霍尔木兹海峡追踪这些船只更加困难。

Still, that picture could be incomplete. Most tankers hauling Iranian crude don’t send position signals while inside the Persian Gulf, making tracking of those ships through Hormuz more difficult.

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