
两家船舶追踪公司的数据显示,海湾石油出口在10月较9月水平有所下滑,而9月水平是伊朗战争爆发以来的最高点,不过两家公司均表示,随着更多装运细节浮出水面,数据可能会被上调。
Gulf oil exports dipped in October from September's levels, which were the highest since the Iran war started, data from two ship-tracking companies showed, although both said the figures could be revised upwards as more details on shipments emerge.
面对霍尔木兹海峡周边航运袭击事件加剧,袭击次数在10月创下纪录,油轮也加大了规避探测的力度,这使得海湾石油流向更难追踪,并增加了初步出口数据进一步被修正的可能性。
Faced with intensifying attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, which reached a record in October, tankers have also stepped up efforts to avoid detection, making Gulf oil flows harder to track and raising the likelihood of further revisions to preliminary export data.
据Vortexa统计,10月原油、凝析油和成品油(不含液化石油气)流量日均为1710万桶,较9月的1890万桶/日有所下降,但仍约为战前水平的四分之三。
Flows of crude, condensate and refined products, excluding LPG, averaged 17.1 million barrels per day in October, according to Vortexa. That marks a drop from 18.9 million bpd in September but still represents roughly three-quarters of pre-war levels.
Vortexa分析师乔治·莫里斯表示:“10月数据显示,中东海运石油出口已从近期战后高位略微回落,原因是霍尔木兹海峡风险加剧。”
"October data shows Middle East seaborne oil exports have pulled back slightly from recent post-war highs on heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz," Vortexa analyst George Morris said.
Vortexa称,10月数据更有可能被上调而非下调,因为许多穿越海峡的穿梭油轮为安全起见会关闭追踪信号,这意味着往往需要卫星影像来确认装运情况,从而造成报告滞后。
The October figure is more likely to be revised up than down because many shuttle tankers going through the Strait switch off tracking signals as a safety measure, Vortexa said. This means satellite imagery is often needed to confirm shipments, creating a reporting lag.
另一家公司Kpler的数据也显示装运量下降,原油和凝析油流量较9月减少约100万桶/日。Kpler同样表示,数据很可能会被上调。
Data from another company, Kpler, also showed a drop in shipments, with crude and condensate flows down about 1 million bpd from September. Kpler also said an upward revision was likely.
Vortexa表示,与其10月初向路透社提供的数据相比,该公司大幅上调了9月数据,因为获得了更多关于油轮的信息。
Vortexa sharply revised up the September figure compared with the data it made available to Reuters in early October, as more information on tankers became available, the company said.
Vortexa称,10月原油和凝析油出口日均为1400万桶,约为战前水平的86%,而成品油出口日均为310万桶,仅略高于正常水平的一半。
Crude and condensate exports averaged 14.0 million bpd in October, or about 86% of pre-war levels, while refined product exports averaged 3.1 million bpd, or just over half of normal volumes, Vortexa said.
在国家层面,Vortexa 表示沙特阿拉伯的出口量与 9 月相比保持稳定,而阿联酋录得最大降幅。数据显示,伊拉克、阿曼和科威特的出口量均有所下降。
At a country level, Vortexa said Saudi Arabia's exports were steady compared with September, while the UAE recorded the largest decline. Iraq, Oman and Kuwait all exported less, the figures showed.
Kpler 关于通过霍尔木兹海峡、红海和阿曼湾的原油及凝析油流量的数据显示,10 月日均约为 1610 万桶,低于 9 月的 1709 万桶。两家公司的数据均不包括伊朗,因美国封锁导致伊朗未在出口。
Kpler's figures on crude and condensate flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Oman show an average of about 16.1 million bpd in October, down from 17.09 million bpd in September. Both companies' figures exclude Iran, which is not exporting due to the US blockade.