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英特尔代工业务推进面临关键考验,此前公司股价10月暴跌45%Intel foundry push faces critical test after stock's 45% plunge in October

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英特尔股价周五暴跌29%,据FactSet数据显示,这使得该股10月份累计下跌45%,创下有记录以来最差单月表现。

Intel's 29% drop on Friday left the stock down 45% in October, its worst month on record, according to FactSet.

英特尔预计,未来五年全球服务器CPU市场将增长五倍,达到2000亿美元,但疲软的PC市场正在拖累传统营收。

Intel sees the global market for server CPUs growing fivefold to $200 billion in the next five years, but the softening PC market is hurting legacy revenue.

英特尔正将俄勒冈州晶圆厂部分18A产能转用于生产Intel 3芯片,以供自家服务器CPU使用。由于PC市场前景恶化,英特尔经历了自1970年代以来最陡峭的股价跌幅,这家芯片制造商正面临越来越大的压力,必须让其举步维艰的代工业务起步。

Intel is redirecting some 18A capacity in Oregon fabs to make Intel 3 chips for its server CPUs Intel comes off its steepest stock drop since the 1970s due to a worsening outlook for the PC market, the chipmaker is facing intensifying pressure to get its flailing foundry business off the ground.

对英特尔而言,这一直是一项难以实现的任务。过去五年里,公司投入了其在此期间1080亿美元资本支出中的很大一部分,试图挑战台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company),但至今仍未为其最先进芯片赢得任何标志性客户,主要还是为自家产品制造芯片。

It's been an elusive task for Intel. The company has spent half a decade, and a good chunk of its $108 billion in capital expenditures over that stretch, trying to challenge Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company But it still has no marquee customer for its most advanced chips, and is primarily manufacturing chips for its own products.

华尔街正在失去耐心。在美国政府于2025年8月入股英特尔10%、英伟达(Nvidia)随即投资50亿美元后,股价开始飙升,在10个月内累计上涨六倍,于6月见顶。英特尔终于在人工智能热潮中找到了定位,提供用于智能体AI的中央处理器,同时市场对其晶圆厂雄心的乐观情绪也在升温。

Wall Street is losing patience. After the U.S. government took a 10% stake in Intel in August 2025, and Nvidia followed with a $5 billion investment, the stock started to shoot up, ultimately rising sixfold over 10 months before peaking in June. Intel was finally finding its niche in the artificial intelligence boom, delivering central processors used for agentic AI, while optimism simultaneously grew over its fab aspirations.

英特尔的故事在周四急转直下,公司表示,由于PC市场继续承受内存及其他组件成本飙升之苦,本季度营收将比分析师预期少10亿至20亿美元。英特尔仍有约一半营收依赖PC板块,而消费者越来越倾向于不升级设备。

Intel's story took a dramatic turn for the worse on Thursday, when the company said revenue this quarter will be between $1 billion and $2 billion shy of analysts' estimates as the PC market continues to suffer from soaring costs for memory and other components. Intel still counts on its PC segment for roughly half of its revenue, and consumers are increasingly choosing not to upgrade.

股价周五暴跌29%,创下自1970年代以来最差单日表现,10月累计暴跌45%,据FactSet数据显示,这是有记录以来最陡峭的单月跌幅。周一盘中股价再跌8%。

The stock plummeted 29% on Friday, its worst day since the 1970s, capping off a 45% plunge in October, the steepest monthly drop on record, according to FactSet. It's down another 8% in Monday trading.

英特尔对未来的投资本应开始见效。首席执行官陈立武表示,他预计未来五年全球服务器处理器市场将增长多达五倍,达到约2000亿美元。英特尔的数据中心业务第三季度收入同比增长78%,达到73亿美元。

Intel's investments in the future are supposed to be paying off. CEO Lip-Bu Tan said he sees the global market for server processors increasing as much as five times over the next five years to about $200 billion. Intel's data center business recorded 78% growth in the third quarter from a year earlier to $7.3 billion.

然而,英特尔表示无法生产足够的芯片来满足需求,并指出晶圆、基板和内存等方面存在行业普遍的供应限制,这些因素同样也在冲击个人电脑销售。

However, Intel said it can't make enough chips to fill demand, pointing to industry-wide supply constraints for wafers, substrates and memory, many of the same factors hurting PC sales.

这迫使陈立武做出一些艰难抉择。针对产能短缺,英特尔表示将把俄勒冈州工厂的部分产能从生产先进的18A制程晶圆转向生产更多旧制程节点(称为Intel 3)的晶圆,后者用于其数据中心产品。

That's forcing Tan to make some hard choices. In response to the capacity shortage, Intel said it's shifting some Oregon factory capacity away from making wafers for its advanced 18A chips to make more wafers on an older node, known as Intel 3, which are used for its data center products.

英特尔指望18A制程吸引外部代工客户,因此资源的转移可能会使这一努力变得更加复杂。哈佛商学院教授大卫·约菲曾在英特尔董事会任职近三十年,他表示,最新的举措几乎无法让潜在的代工客户感到受欢迎。

Intel is counting on 18A to attract outside foundry customers, so the shift in resources could complicate that effort. David Yoffie, a Harvard Business School professor who previously spent almost three decades on Intel's board, said the latest moves are hardly welcoming to prospective foundry customers.

“他们担心,如果英特尔实际上没有除自身需求之外的过剩产能,那么它就不是一个非常可信的供应商,”约菲说。如果在一年内找不到大规模代工客户,“那么英特尔经济状况的压力将开始更加显著地显现出来,”他说。英特尔未回应置评请求。

"They're concerned that if Intel doesn't actually have excess capacity beyond its own demand, that they're just not a very credible supplier," Yoffie said. If it doesn't find a large-scale foundry customer within a year, "then the stress on Intel's economics are going to start to show even more dramatically," he said. Intel didn't respond to a request for comment.

英特尔最为人所知的是其行业领先的中央处理器(CPU)。在早期的人工智能热潮中,英伟达和超威半导体的图形处理器占据主导地位,因为它们擅长处理训练模型和聊天机器人推理的大规模工作负载,而像英特尔这样的CPU对于运行Meta的Muse等智能体应用所使用的虚拟机至关重要。竞争对手还是合作伙伴?

Intel is best known for its industry-leading central processing units, or CPUs. Graphics processing units from Nvidia Advanced Micro Devices ruled the early AI boom because they excel at handling large workloads for training models and inference for chatbots, while CPUs like Intel's are crucial for running the virtual machines used by agentic apps like Meta 's Muse. Competitor or partner?

作为全球极少数能够为自家产品制造和封装先进芯片的公司之一,英特尔比大多数芯片制造商“更能掌控自己的命运”,瑞穗证券分析师乔丹·克莱因在接受采访时表示。“如果产能不足,你就会把营收和利润拱手让人,”克莱因说。

As one of the only companies in the world capable of manufacturing and packaging the advanced chips it needs for its own products, Intel has "more control over their destiny" than most chipmakers, Jordan Klein, an analyst at Mizuho Securities, said in an interview. "If you don't have enough capacity, you leave revenue and money on the table," Klein said.

已于2024年底被迫离职的前英特尔首席执行官帕特·基辛格,在其四年任期内大力推进代工投资,试图在7纳米和10纳米技术延期后追赶进度,这两个先进制程节点旨在在每颗芯片上封装更多晶体管。

Former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, who was ousted in late 2024, spent his four-year tenure at the company aggressively pursuing foundry investments to catch up after delays on its 7- and 10-nanometer technologies, advanced process nodes that aim to fit more transistors on each chip.

谭升武采取了更为审慎的策略,在客户需求落实前限制支出。他在周四表示,“几位客户”将在未来两个季度内公布。

Tan has taken a more cautious approach, limiting spending until customer demand is locked in. He said on Thursday that "a couple customers" would be announced in the coming two quarters.

英特尔的18A芯片用于自家产品,目前正在亚利桑那州大规模量产,第二座晶圆厂也在建设中。俄亥俄州新厂区刚刚安装了第一根结构桁架,尽管该项目已比原计划落后近五年。阻碍获得新客户的另一个障碍是,博通、高通等芯片制造商可能不愿在一家同时也是其产品端竞争对手的公司制造芯片,约菲说。

Intel's 18A chips, for its own use, are in high-volume production out of Arizona, with a second fab in the works. A first structural truss was just installed at Intel's new Ohio facility, although the project is nearly five years behind schedule Another roadblock to getting new customers, Yoffie said, is that chipmakers like Broadcom Qualcomm may hesitate to manufacture chips at a company that's also a competitor on the product side.

“正确的解决方案是让英特尔剥离代工业务,”约菲说,称这“不仅是最好的解决方案,也许是唯一的解决方案。”

"The right solution is for Intel to spin off the foundry business," Yoffie said, calling it "not only the best solution, but maybe the only solution."

克莱因表示,AMD很可能是唯一一家对在英特尔代工不感兴趣的主要芯片制造商,因为两家公司在CPU市场直接竞争。他称这是一个“竞争、保密、隐私问题。”AMD将于周二美股收盘后发布第三季度财报。约菲说,美国需要英特尔取得成功。

Klein said AMD is likely the only major chipmaker that isn't interested in manufacturing at Intel because the two companies compete directly in the CPU market. He called it a "competitive, secrecy, privacy issue." AMD reports third-quarter results after the bell on Tuesday. Yoffie said the U.S. needs Intel to succeed.

“台积电最终只能在美国建立其全球产能的 20% 到 25% 左右,而且这仍将需要数年时间,”他说。“如果我们没有美国的晶圆代工厂,而又遭遇各种地缘政治问题、像新冠疫情期间那样的供应链问题,那将对国家不利,也对美国半导体产业不利。”台积电无法为所有人制造芯片,竞争“极其激烈”

"Ultimately, TSMC can only create maybe 20-25% of their global capacity in the United States and that will still take several years," he said. "If we have no American foundry and we run into any number of geopolitical problems, supply chain problems like we had under Covid, that is going to be bad for the country and bad for the American semiconductor industry." TSMC can’t make chips for everyone, and competition is ‘extremely fierce’

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