
旧金山 —— 加利福尼亚州2026年大选已然成为亿万富翁的舞台。
SAN FRANCISCO — California’s 2026 election has been the year of the billionaire.
数月来,极少数超级富豪在选票的各个层面投入了史无前例的巨额资源。虽然他们的支出引发了广泛关注,但《政治报》(POLITICO)的一项新分析更深入地揭示了他们的党派归属和投票习惯。
For months, a small handful of very, very wealthy people deployed their vast resources in unprecedented sums up and down the ballot. And while their spending drew widespread attention, a new POLITICO analysis offers a more revealing look at their party affiliations and voting habits.
一些人已将其政治立场表露无遗。亿万富翁慈善家汤姆·斯泰尔(Tom Steyer)今年试图以一场最终未果的、耗资2亿多美元的初选竞选购买通往州长官邸的入场券。SEIU-UHW(服务业国际工会联合医疗工人分会)推动的第40号提案(Proposition 40)——一项针对该州最富有居民的一次性征税——将亿万富翁显性地置于选票之上,引发了由世界首富之一谢尔盖·布林(Sergey Brin)牵头的、耗资超过3亿美元的反对竞选活动,使他有望在未来多年充当政治权力掮客。
Some have made their politics abundantly clear. Tom Steyer, the billionaire philanthropist, attempted this year to buy his way to the governor’s mansion with an ultimately unsuccessful $200-plus million primary campaign. SEIU-UHW’s pursuit of Proposition 40, a one-time tax on the state’s wealthiest residents, put billionaires on the ballot explicitly, prompting a more than $300 million opposition campaign led by Sergey Brin, one of the world’s richest men, who is now positioned to act as a political powerbroker for years to come.
另一位亿万富翁、外科医生兼发明家加里·米歇尔森(Gary Michelson)斥资数千万个人财富推广自己的提案——一项免疫学债券,旨在向他共同创立的一个研究所拨付数十亿美元。在整张选票上,现任和前任加州亿万富翁在今年州选举中的支出创下6.12亿美元的纪录。
A separate billionaire, surgeon and inventor Gary Michelson, spent tens of millions of his personal fortune to promote his own measure, an immunology bond that would direct billions to an institute that he co-founded. Across the entire ballot, current and former California billionaires have spent a record $612 million on this year's state election.
多年来,美国最富有的人对政治走向和结果施加的影响力与日俱增。在加州,今年将这一趋势推向了新高度。但他们究竟是谁?
For years, the country’s richest people have wielded a growing influence on the direction and outcome of its politics. In California, this year has supercharged that trendline. But who, in fact, are they?
据《福布斯》(Forbes)统计,有250多位亿万富翁将加州视为家园——或直到最近仍如此。《政治报》成功将其中166人与该州选民档案匹配,从而为他们的构成、政治倾向和投票倾向提供了新见解。
More than 250 billionaires call California home — or have until recently — according to Forbes. POLITICO was able to match 166 of those individuals with the state’s voter file, offering new insights into their make-up, political leanings and voting propensity.
该州许多亿万富翁的名字为普通选民所熟知,代表了该州娱乐和科技两大支柱产业——音乐界偶像如德雷博士和蕾哈娜,真人秀明星如金·卡戴珊,以及硅谷科技大亨如Meta首席执行官马克·扎克伯格、Anthropic创始人达里奥·阿莫代伊和前谷歌首席执行官埃里克·施密特(不要与亿万富翁、Harbor Freight Tools首席执行官埃里克·施密特混淆)。
Many of the state’s billionaires’ names are familiar to the average voter, representing the state’s major industries of entertainment and tech – music icons like Dr. Dre and Rihanna, reality TV stars like Kim Kardashian as well as Silicon Valley tech moguls like Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, Anthropic founder Dario Amodei and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt (not to be confused with Eric Smidt, the billionaire CEO of Harbor Freight tools).
其他人则在相对默默无闻中经营业务——前玻璃和釉面产品公司老板唐纳德·弗里斯,以及软件公司Altair Engineering创始人詹姆斯·斯卡帕,走在街上不太可能引来多少侧目。
Others run their businesses in relative anonymity — Donald Friese, the former owner of a glass and glazing products company, and James Scapa, the founder of a software firm Altair Engineering, are unlikely to turn many heads when they walk down the street.
据《政治报》分析,在我们将其与加利福尼亚州选民档案匹配的亿万富翁中,注册民主党人多于共和党人,尽管有不少工业巨头曾造访白宫并向唐纳德·特朗普总统示好。
According to POLITICO’s analysis, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans among the billionaires we identified to the California voter file, despite the number of industrial titans who have visited the White House and extended olive branches to President Donald Trump.
“选民可能认为加利福尼亚州亿万富翁阶层中共和党人更多,”加利福尼亚州资深民主党政治数据专家保罗·米切尔说。“这更多是一种近因偏见,因为你看到所有科技精英都围坐在特朗普身边。”共和党顾问迈克·墨菲表示,这些数字挑战了富人绝大多数是共和党人的假设。
“Voters probably think there are more Republicans” among California’s billionaire class, said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic leading political data expert in California. “That’s more recency bias when you see all the tech elites around the table with Trump.”Republican consultant Mike Murphy said the numbers challenge the assumption that wealthy people are overwhelmingly Republican.
“旧式的政治模式将财富等同于共和党,所以人们可能会假设,如果他们是亿万富翁,那肯定都是共和党人,”他说,“我认为数据显示情况比这更复杂。”根据州务卿办公室在9月初提供的选民档案数据,扎克伯格曾多次与特朗普会面,并经历了外界所谓的“MAGA式大改造”,但他被列为注册民主党人。另一位白宫常客阿莫代伊也被列为注册民主党人,他的AI竞争对手萨姆·奥特曼同样如此。
“The old model of politics equates wealth with Republican so people probably assume they’ve all got to be Republican if they’re billionaires,” he said, “and I think the data shows it’s more complex than that.”Zuckerberg, who has met with Trump on a number occasions and has undergone what some have termed a “MAGA-makeover,” was listed as a registered Democrat, according to voter-file data the Secretary of State’s office provided in early September. Amodei, another frequent guest of the White House, was also listed as a registered Democrat, as was his AI rival, Sam Altman.
《政治新闻网》在选民档案中识别出的加州共和党亿万富翁阵容中,领衔的有前州长阿诺德·施瓦辛格、金州勇士队和金州女武神队老板乔·拉科布,以及特朗普的巨额捐赠者、科技企业家帕尔默·拉基。
Headlining California’s class of Republican billionaires that POLITICO identified in the voter file are former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Golden State Warriors and Golden State Valkyries owner Joe Lacob and Trump mega donor and tech entrepreneur Palmer Luckey.
但这些亿万富翁的民主党倾向仍弱于该州整体选民(经《政治新闻网》匹配到选民档案的亿万富翁中有36%为民主党人,而全州选民中这一比例为45%)。他们更倾向于无党派倾向(39%,而全州选民中这一比例为23%)。米切尔表示,这可能反映出一种对两党政治体制普遍存在的鄙视。
But the billionaires were still less Democratic than their state’s overall electorate (36% of the billionaires POLITICO matched to the voter file, compared to 45% of the statewide electorate). And they were more likely to have no party preference (39%, compared to 23% of voters statewide). Mitchell said that could reflect a prevailing disdain for the two-party political system.
“成为‘无党派倾向选民’的一种想法是:‘我不懂政治,不关心,我只是独立。’另一种想法是:‘我比这些党派聪明,我知道我想要什么,’”米切尔说。“我确信许多亿万富翁属于后者。”毫不意外,洛杉矶和旧金山是亿万富翁群体中明确的地理权力中心。超过30人注册在旧金山市内,另有15人在洛杉矶,周边城市和郊区还有数十人。至少四分之一出生于该州,其次是8%出生于纽约,至少19%出生于其他国家。
“One train of thought for a (no-party-preference voter) is: ‘I don't know anything about politics, I don't care, I’m just independent.’ The other is: ‘I’m smarter than these parties, I know what I want,’” Mitchell said. “I’m sure a lot of these billionaires fit into that camp.”Unsurprisingly, Los Angeles and San Francisco are the clear geographic centers of power among the billionaire set. More than 30 people were registered in San Francisco itself and another 15 in Los Angeles, with dozens more in the surrounding cities and suburbs. At least a quarter were born in the state, followed by 8% in New York, and at least 19% in other countries.
虽然亿万富翁在今年加州政治中扮演了不成比例的角色,但他们通常也是高投票倾向的选民。我们数据集中超过 60% 的亿万富翁在过去三次总统大选中都投了票,这一比例高于 2024 年和 2016 年全州选民的投票率。但尽管总体上比普通选民更积极参与,只有 54% 的人在去年 11 月的特别选举中投票,而在 2024 年总统初选中的投票率甚至更低,仅为 51%。
While billionaires have seized an outsized role in the state’s politics this year, they are also generally high-propensity voters. More than 60% of the billionaires in our dataset voted in each of the last three presidential elections, a higher share than the statewide electorate in both 2024 and 2016. But although generally more engaged than the average voter, just 54% voted in last November’s special election and an even lower 51% in the 2024 presidential primaries.
如果 40 号提案通过,反对者称,至少已有一些亿万富翁试图因财富税而逃离加州,他们可能不是最后一批。
At least some billionaires have already attempted to flee California over the wealth tax. If Prop 40 passes, opponents say, they may not be the last.