字号·· | 护眼
华尔街日报

Anthropic投资者推动估值趋于谨慎,接近1.5万亿美元Anthropic Investors Push for Cautious Valuation Closer to $1.5 Trillion

点「原文对照」整页切到原文,或双击某段只看那段的原文。

Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊。Jason Henry为《华尔街日报》拍摄Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei. Jason Henry for WSJ

上周科技股暴跌,让计划参与 Anthropic 首次公开募股(IPO)的大额投资者围绕着一个更低的估值达成共识,这家人工智能巨头的估值预期由此下调。

The rout in technology stocks last week has big investors who plan to participate in Anthropic’s IPO coalescing around a lower valuation for the artificial-intelligence giant.

据知情人士透露,过去几天里,机构投资者向这家 Claude 制造商及其顾问表示,该公司计划于本月晚些时候进行的 IPO 估值应在 1.5 万亿美元至 1.6 万亿美元左右,远低于近几个月来流传的接近 2 万亿美元的数字。

In the past several days, institutional investors told the Claude maker and its advisers that the company’s valuation in its planned IPO later this month should be around $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion, according to people familiar with the matter, well below figures closer to $2 trillion that had been bandied about in recent months.

投资者列举了一系列令人担忧的因素,包括市场震荡以及对 AI 押注过度暴露的日益担忧。数据中心引发的政治反弹,以及亚马逊和 Meta Platforms 等超大规模科技公司何时能展现 AI 相关利润的不确定性,也在压低投资者的心理预期。

The investors cite a list of concerning factors including choppy markets and growing concerns about overexposure to AI bets. Political backlash to data centers and uncertainty around how soon hyperscalers such as Amazon.com and Meta Platforms could show AI-related profits are also weighing on investors’ minds.

Anthropic 尚未敲定估值目标,也仍在考虑计划出售多少股份。路透社早前报道,在该公司上个月举办投资者日后,已有部分投资者表示估值应更接近 1.5 万亿美元。

Anthropic hasn’t finalized a valuation target and is also still considering how many shares it plans to sell. It had already been hearing from some investors after its investor day last month that the valuation should be closer to $1.5 trillion, Reuters previously reported.

那是在上周英特尔和 Alphabet 等科技股因一连串令人失望的财报而双位数下跌之前。Alphabet 报告称,谷歌搜索广告业务增长放缓,受“AI 模式”查询拖累;亚马逊营收未达分析师预期;英特尔预测个人电脑销售将长期放缓。

That was before double-digit drops in technology stocks including Intel and Alphabet last week after a string of disappointing earnings results. Alphabet reported growth in Google’s search-advertising business slowed, hurt by “AI-mode” queries, Amazon’s revenue missed analyst expectations and Intel forecast a prolonged slowdown in personal-computer sales.

一些投资者表示,他们信任 Anthropic 首席财务官 Krishna Rao 会设定一个保守的估值,并优先保证 IPO 投资者在首日获得股价“跳涨”。他们相信,即使 Anthropic 以约 1.5 万亿美元的估值上市,首个交易日结束时也可能跳升至 2 万亿美元。埃隆·马斯克旗下的 SpaceX 在 6 月首日交易中飙升 30%——那时围绕 AI 的广泛投资者紧张情绪尚未形成。

Some investors say they trust Anthropic’s chief financial officer Krishna Rao to set a conservative valuation and give priority to delivering IPO investors a first-day “pop” in the stock price. They believe that even if Anthropic debuts at a roughly $1.5 trillion valuation, it could jump to $2 trillion by the end of the first trading day. Elon Musk’s SpaceX jumped 30% during its first day trading in June—before widespread investor jitters around AI had taken hold.

Anthropic 计划最早于下周启动路演向投资者推介,其股市首秀有望在感恩节前一周进行。届时,公司将通过披露拟发行股份数量及目标价格区间,提出路演启动时的目标估值。

Anthropic plans to launch its roadshow pitch to investors as soon as next week, with its stock-market debut on track for the week before Thanksgiving. It will suggest a target valuation at the time of the roadshow launch by revealing the number of shares it hopes to sell and a target price range.

知情人士透露,SpaceX 此前在启动路演时采取了非传统路径,直接给出单一发行价;而 Anthropic 预计将采取更传统的方式,提出一个价格区间。

SpaceX chose an unorthodox route and named a single price for the IPO when it launched its roadshow. Anthropic is expected to take a more traditional route and propose a range, according to people familiar with the offering.

Anthropic 在周一提交的更新文件中表示,截至 9 月 30 日止三个月的营收达到 170 亿美元,较上一季度的 116 亿美元大幅增长。公司披露,营收增幅部分被新模型版本推出的降价措施及合同折扣抵消,金额达 6 亿美元。

Anthropic said in an updated filing Monday that its revenue hit $17 billion in the three months ended Sept. 30, up from $11.6 billion in the prior quarter. The revenue increase was partially offset by $600 million in price reductions introduced from new model versions and contractual discounts, the company disclosed.

公司还就其巨额算力支出披露了更多细节,称已签订采购承诺及租赁协议,累计承诺支出约 8954 亿美元。其中,预计约 4475 亿美元将在 2030 年底前发生;绝大部分剩余支出预计将落在 2031 年至 2045 年之间。

It also provided more detail on its massive computing spending, disclosing that it entered into purchase commitments and lease agreements with an aggregate committed spend of approximately $895.4 billion. The commitments include approximately $447.5 billion expected to be incurred before the end of 2030; substantially all the rest is likely to hit between 2031 and 2045.

情绪转变正蔓延至其他关注公开市场的公司。许多公司正在观望 Anthropic 的表现,再决定是否采取重大步骤。若上市顺利,投资者预计明年早期将迎来发行潮。

The mood shift is spreading to other companies eyeing the public markets. Many are waiting to see how Anthropic performs before taking any big steps. If the listing goes off without a hitch, investors expect a flood of offerings early next year.

阅读媒体原文 ↗